What does a TRUMP presidency look like?

[The Minsky Moment]

2) How much better (or worse) it'll be if she wins the GOP nomination?

Is this a serious question?
Haley is pretty awful, but garden variety pre-2016 GOP awful.  At this point, it isn't an exaggeration to say that Trump poses an existential threat to the American Republic.  Even worse, if he wins there will be no way to avoid that obnoxious shouty whiny voice for four years.   

[Savonarola]

Coalescing arund Haley as the anti-Trump candidate?

What's the Languish take on:

1) Haley's chances?

She's a long shot; if she wins New Hampshire and if DeSantis leaves early then she might stand a chance in the primary.  In the general her chances are poor; she's going to have to spend a great deal of her resources in the primary while Biden will have all of his to spend in the general.  In our system the person with the most money almost always wins.

Haley will also be hampered by misogyny; for instance last year Newsweek ran an article condemning Haley for wearing white to her daughter's wedding.  The Haley camp later clarified that the dress was cream colored; however Biden will not face criticism like that.

2) How much better (or worse) it'll be if she wins the GOP nomination?

If she does win the nomination she will be even worse than Trump in every news source to left of The Wall Street Journal's opinion columns; the way that Trump was even worse than Romney who was even worse than McCain who was even worse than Bush who was even worse than Dole and so on probably going back to Lincoln (who was presumably even worse than the Copperheads.)

 

I expect she wouldn't have huge coat tails and would have at most a slim majority in the House and Senate.  I doubt she'd be able to implement much of an agenda.  She at least seems interested in doing the job; which is an improvement over Trump.

[The Minsky Moment]

1) Haley's chances?

We need Guller to crunch the numbers.  What's the chance that a 77 year old with Trump's diet and BMI keels over or suffers a badly disabling health event in a six month period?  Add about 0.5% to that.  And that's her chances.

[HVC]

How well known is it amongst GOPtards that she's Indian?

[The Minsky Moment]

SSA says a 77 year old Amercian male has a 4.9% chance of dying in the next year.  Pro-rate for time to convention  and its about 2 percent.  Trump doesn't have the healthiest life style but it does appear he is reasonably healthy, he has access to the best medical care, and his parents both lived long.  So let's call it 1.5%.  Add another 0.5% for a seriously disabling health event, i.e. worse than Fetterman's stroke.  And another 1% for some fluke set of events.  That's a 3% chance Trump doesn't get it.  If Trump doesn't get it, Haley probably does, however - if it happens before March, there will be new entrants that could change the race; if it happens close to the convention, a brokered convention could choose a different option.

[Sophie Scholl]

How well known is it amongst GOPtards that she's Indian?

I believe Trump just started a Birther thing against her, so if it isn't well known now, it will be soon.

[Gups]

2) How much better (or worse) it'll be if she wins the GOP nomination?

Is this a serious question?
Haley is pretty awful, but garden variety pre-2016 GOP awful.  At this point, it isn't an exaggeration to say that Trump poses an existential threat to the American Republic.  Even worse, if he wins there will be no way to avoid that obnoxious shouty whiny voice for four years.   

An existential threat to the world in my view. I absolutely dread the prospect.

The issue isn't political standpoints as such, it's that Trump is mentally deranged.

[DGuller]

SSA says a 77 year old Amercian male has a 4.9% chance of dying in the next year.  Pro-rate for time to convention  and its about 2 percent.  Trump doesn't have the healthiest life style but it does appear he is reasonably healthy, he has access to the best medical care, and his parents both lived long.  So let's call it 1.5%.  Add another 0.5% for a seriously disabling health event, i.e. worse than Fetterman's stroke.  And another 1% for some fluke set of events.  That's a 3% chance Trump doesn't get it.  If Trump doesn't get it, Haley probably does, however - if it happens before March, there will be new entrants that could change the race; if it happens close to the convention, a brokered convention could choose a different option.

Come one, Minsky, you're a good lawyer, can't you find another percent or two there? 

[Josquius]

If trump were to become a vegetable... Like more of a one than he is now... What would that do to his odds of winning?

[Jacob]

Is this a serious question?
Haley is pretty awful, but garden variety pre-2016 GOP awful.  At this point, it isn't an exaggeration to say that Trump poses an existential threat to the American Republic.  Even worse, if he wins there will be no way to avoid that obnoxious shouty whiny voice for four years.   

It was primarily a question about Haley than the dangers of Trump.

[Savonarola]

If trump were to become a vegetable... Like more of a one than he is now... What would that do to his odds of winning?

That's a good question, does having two functionally brain dead candidates favor the Democrat or favor the challenger?  I'm afraid the 1976 election doesn't provide us a clear answer.

 

[Admiral Yi]

Is this a serious question?

+1

[The Minsky Moment]

SSA says a 77 year old Amercian male has a 4.9% chance of dying in the next year.  Pro-rate for time to convention  and its about 2 percent.  Trump doesn't have the healthiest life style but it does appear he is reasonably healthy, he has access to the best medical care, and his parents both lived long.  So let's call it 1.5%.  Add another 0.5% for a seriously disabling health event, i.e. worse than Fetterman's stroke.  And another 1% for some fluke set of events.  That's a 3% chance Trump doesn't get it.  If Trump doesn't get it, Haley probably does, however - if it happens before March, there will be new entrants that could change the race; if it happens close to the convention, a brokered convention could choose a different option.

Come one, Minsky, you're a good lawyer, can't you find another percent or two there? 

Sadly the law cannot protect us from the irremediably lawless. Only the actuaries can save us now.

[Admiral Yi]

That's a good question, does having two functionally brain dead candidates favor the Democrat or favor the challenger?  I'm afraid the 1976 election doesn't provide us a clear answer.

 

Libel.

[The Minsky Moment]

It was primarily a question about Haley than the dangers of Trump.

OK but it was phrased as a comparative question . . .
I think she is definitely preferable to DeSantis, who has proven himself to be thin-skinned and extremely opportunistic even by politician standards.

I think she will be mostly solid on foreign policy. The Ukraine situation will be safer with her as President than either Trump or Biden, b/c she will be able to keep the Kremlipublicans in line (and the Dems are mostly solid anyway).  Biggest risk on foreign policy is giving the Israelis too much of a blank check.

She would continue to drift of the judiciary toward the far right, but we would probably see a decline in the number of outright incompetent appointees to the bench. Otherwise domestic policy would likely be a standard mishmash of GOPish shibboleths like unfunded tax cuts for trust babies and passive income tycoons ("job creators"), drill baby drill, coal subsidies, cutting the hell out of every discretionary welfare program in sight, threatening to cut social security and then backing down and claiming it never happened, and then finally - the old Reagan and Bush II playbook of gutting bank regulation, taking credit for the resulting credit fueled expansion, and then quietly receding at the end of term 2 as the inevitable financial crash tanks the economy.

On the plus side she is very unlikely to send a deranged mob to assassinate her own VP and literally shit on the Capitol.  So that's a big plus.