2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[mongers]

You have some weird Greens over there. Our Greens are like among the strongest NATO supporters.

In an around about way it makes sense, a Russian occupation of Finland would devasted the environment, not to mention the damage caused by a war on the civilian infrastructure.

[crazy canuck]

You have some weird Greens over there. Our Greens are like among the strongest NATO supporters.

In an around about way it makes sense, a Russian occupation of Finland would devasted the environment, not to mention the damage caused by a war on the civilian infrastructure.

I think it has more to do the fact that Greens outside the US either wield, or have an opportunity to wield, some form of political power - and so their policies need to make some sense.

[Sheilbh]

I think it has more to do the fact that Greens outside the US either wield, or have an opportunity to wield, some form of political power - and so their policies need to make some sense.

Yeah - a friend of mine who's very involved in climate activism for lawyers (https://www.lar.earth/) and Green party politics (she's drafted a few manifesto amendments) has said the England and Wales Green Party's manifesto is an absolute disaster that will not survive any contact with media attention.

Apparently it's a "living manifesto" so until something is explicitly removed by party conference, it stays. Which means, for example, it includes some very dubious (and possibly quite racist/eugenics-y) stuff about population control from a few decades ago. Although they have moved from supporting NATO withdrawal and back providing some military aid to Ukraine - so that's progress towards engaging reality.

[Josquius]

Not to mention their core pro climate change stance....

[mongers]

So where are the social media posts/rumours that Biden is planning to cancel the election because of fake climate change and instead rule by decree?

[crazy canuck]

I think we just found one

[mongers]

I think we just found one

 

[Admiral Yi]

Andrew Yang and Christine Todd Whitman formed a new party and no one gave a shit.

[Valmy]

Andrew Yang and Christine Todd Whitman formed a new party and no one gave a shit.

Yang's career was done when the lost the Mayoral race. He would have to rebuild it by winning small elections, not losing even more with a ridiculous third party.

Not even sure who that other lady is.

[Valmy]

It truly gives me heartburn that literally everybody besides old man Biden seems to be completely insane and detached from reality. Granted I haven't looked through every single Republican that closely.

The fact that Biden, for decades considered kind of a clown and a famous for gaffes, now seems to be the only adult in the room is deeply depressing. Oh and the fact he is 80.

[crazy canuck]

It truly gives me heartburn that literally everybody besides old man Biden seems to be completely insane and detached from reality. Granted I haven't looked through every single Republican that closely.

The fact that Biden, for decades considered kind of a clown and a famous for gaffes, now seems to be the only adult in the room is deeply depressing. Oh and the fact he is 80.

That was bound to happen when Biden decided to go for a second term.  The sane Dems would not run against him.

[The Minsky Moment]

Not even sure who that other lady is.

Former NJ governor; Eisenhower-Rockefeller Republican.

I.e. basically a living political fossil.

[Caliga]

The main thing I remember about Governor Whitman was that she told Howard Stern that if he supported her campaign for governor, she'd name a rest stop on the NJ Turnpike after him.  She won her campaign, and kept her promise, and so for a while the Turnpike had a Howard Stern Rest Stop.

I believe it closed many years ago, though.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Was bored so looked a bit at the polling landscape. Now--I firmly believe we need to be pretty dismissive of polls this far out, so it is really only the lightest of indicators and more just a temperature reading on the public vs actually having strong predictive value.

But a few things:

1. DeSantis is done. Not only is DeSantis polling far below Trump, he polls much worse, in virtually every measure in every State that is running polls, against Biden than Trump does. One of the core arguments for the DeSantis candidacy months ago was that he was more electable than Trump, but the actual polling suggests he is significantly worse on electability than Trump is.

Now, I was someone who some time ago would have said "if he could get through the primary without Trump around his neck", DeSantis would be a bigger threat to Biden than Trump. So, was I wrong? I think I was partially--I think I underestimated how much DeSantis just isn't charismatic or a good campaigner. He does poorly when he isn't doing a press release touting some new anti-woke gubernatorial action, and instead is in a context where people can force him to talk off-script.

I say "partially", because I think part of the reason DeSantis is doing so badly is the other part of my earlier prediction "if he could get through without having Trump around his neck." I think part of why DeSantis is doing so poorly is because to be the nominee he has to challenge Trump--and the GOP just remains where it was 8 years ago--you can't challenge Trump without alienating his cultists, and his cultists are too significant a share of the party for a candidate to win without them.

2. In Biden v. Trump, it seems like the landscape is going to be very similar to 2020. Biden appears to enjoy an overall polling advantage, most of the time. In some States the polling is a lot tighter than it was in 2020, in some States it is much wider (for example it looks like Wisconsin is just much more anti-Trump now than it has ever been, and given how unpopular the repeal of Roe was in Wisconsin it may be this is a state that a figure like Trump is going to have a much harder time of winning than in 2020--when he lost it narrowly, or 2016 where he won it narrowly.)

Some things that I think people might question:

How is Biden outpolling Trump when he is doing so badly in approval polling?

I don't think this is that complicated. Approval polling is largely a measure of how happy you are about the way the country is being ran. I think a significant part of the Joe Biden coalition is, and probably always will be, unhappy about the direction of the country. Young people in general are pretty negative on the country, they view it is drifting into extremism, doing too little about climate change, doing too little about wealth inequality etc. But when asked how they will vote between Biden and Trump, they are saying Biden. Essentially--you don't have to approve of someone to vote for them, you just have to not want their opponent to win.

Does this mean Dems have it in the bag?

No, I think it means the election will be very similar to 2020. If you're a reasonable person you will note 2020 was decided by some very narrow margins in several swing states. Assuming a similar electorate and similar voting patterns in 2024, that means that Trump could easily win. It also means Biden could certainly win. Probably I think Biden has the edge, but anyone going to bed the night before election night who thinks their guy has it won, in this political climate, is IMO being foolish.

I do think there's some things that will be interesting to watch for:

• How does the economy do? So far it looks like inflation is going to be reined in with either no, or minimal recession. This is good for an incumbent.
• How will Biden campaign? He largely campaigned from his basement in 2020, which is unlikely to be suitable for 2024, he likely very much needs to campaign aggressively.
• How will Trump campaign? Every indication I have seen is that he continues to drift more and more towards the "worst part" of his base, and further and further from the 2016 strategy that won him key suburban (especially white women) voters. There are many political analysts that have strongly argued the GOP's losses in 2018, 2020, and their muted wins in 2022 are directly linked to a loss of support in key white women suburban votes that have never been recovered. I do question how they plan to recover those votes with the sort of rhetoric they are doubling down on.

[Josquius]

I've heard a big thing in 2016 for trump was everything saying he didnt have a chance. This suppressed Clinton votes and boosted his. A close election could be good in getting large numbers of unenthusiastic dem supporters out.