2024 US Presidential Elections Megathread

[DGuller]

I sympathise with those remaining conservatives who do not want to accept that the only people left to (claim to) represent their views when running for office are anti-democratic fascists, but sadly that is the case.

There are only two policies left in politics to take a side on: "soft" fascist autocracy ala Russia and Hungary, or maintaining liberal democracy. Everything else is subjugated to this, the great culture war of these decades. If you can't see it and go about being lenient and sympathetic to people like the Republicans because they use the buzzwords you liked 20 years ago when they still mattered, you are deluding yourself and endangering the future of you and your children.

Well-said.

[mongers]

A simple two part acid test would be to ask each of these republican candidates if they unreservedly condemn Jan 6th capital attack/coup attempt and if they think the 2020 election was fairly conducted.

[Barrister]

What he's saying is, while there's an election for leadership of the Nazi party, knowing how bad Adolf Hitler is, do you want people of the NSDAP electing him as their leader or do you prefer them choosing Himmler?

Surely in this analogy he's the one saying Himmler hasn't done anything wrong and would be fine.

FFS I actually used this analogy already (though I used Goring).

I didn't say Goring would be fine - I said we know how bad Hitler is so better to try with Goring if given the option.

[PJL]

I sympathise with those remaining conservatives who do not want to accept that the only people left to (claim to) represent their views when running for office are anti-democratic fascists, but sadly that is the case.

There are only two policies left in politics to take a side on: "soft" fascist autocracy ala Russia and Hungary, or maintaining liberal democracy. Everything else is subjugated to this, the great culture war of these decades. If you can't see it and go about being lenient and sympathetic to people like the Republicans because they use the buzzwords you liked 20 years ago when they still mattered, you are deluding yourself and endangering the future of you and your children.

Sadly too many of them favour conservatism over democracy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Goofy Trump only lost the general by 2 million votes, while evil Trump lost it by 9 million.  Hard to see him "flipping 3-4 states" when its only gotten worse for him.  His approval rating was 49% heading into the 2020 elections.  It's 39% now.  The argument that people are just forgetting all the bad Trump stuff and are more willing to vote for him now doesn't withstand a look at the evidence.

Then why is Trump leading Biden in head-to-head polling?

Most off-year elections are a referendum on the incumbent.  In 2020 that was Trump, and he lost.

In 2024 that will be Biden.  We've had a few turbulent years - first coming through the second year of the pandemic, then all the supply shocks and inflation of the after-pandemic.  Obviously there's still another year and a half to go (Bush 41 was flying high in mid-1991, while Clinton didn't look so hot in mid-1995) but right now Biden is in an uphill battle.

Now there is the possibility that Trump's ego means he can't help but make it a referendum on himself yet again.  But I wouldn't want to count on that.

Keep in mind--Trump in head to head polling is drawing numbers roughly where he has always, literally for 7+ years now. And those numbers have been tested in 2 elections. It seems shockingly unlikely Trump will pull more than that.

Biden's total + Trump's total is well short of 100%. Most of those remaining votes are going somewhere, and unless the actual election trends of 2016 and 2020 have shifted to Trump suddenly becoming much more popular than he was in either of those elections, most of those votes are going to go to the other choice in our binary two party system.

It certainly shows low enthusiasm for Biden, but there's a number of reasons such far out election polling don't well capture what voters will do when faced with the reality of making a choice instead of expressing an opinion. With Trump's numbers we do have 2 huge elections to judge them on, and that middling 40% number is where he has always been.

[Barrister]

Goofy Trump only lost the general by 2 million votes, while evil Trump lost it by 9 million.  Hard to see him "flipping 3-4 states" when its only gotten worse for him.  His approval rating was 49% heading into the 2020 elections.  It's 39% now.  The argument that people are just forgetting all the bad Trump stuff and are more willing to vote for him now doesn't withstand a look at the evidence.

Then why is Trump leading Biden in head-to-head polling?

Most off-year elections are a referendum on the incumbent.  In 2020 that was Trump, and he lost.

In 2024 that will be Biden.  We've had a few turbulent years - first coming through the second year of the pandemic, then all the supply shocks and inflation of the after-pandemic.  Obviously there's still another year and a half to go (Bush 41 was flying high in mid-1991, while Clinton didn't look so hot in mid-1995) but right now Biden is in an uphill battle.

Now there is the possibility that Trump's ego means he can't help but make it a referendum on himself yet again.  But I wouldn't want to count on that.

Keep in mind--Trump in head to head polling is drawing numbers roughly where he has always, literally for 7+ years now. And those numbers have been tested in 2 elections. It seems shockingly unlikely Trump will pull more than that.

Biden's total + Trump's total is well short of 100%. Most of those remaining votes are going somewhere, and unless the actual election trends of 2016 and 2020 have shifted to Trump suddenly becoming much more popular than he was in either of those elections, most of those votes are going to go to the other choice in our binary two party system.

It certainly shows low enthusiasm for Biden, but there's a number of reasons such far out election polling don't well capture what voters will do when faced with the reality of making a choice instead of expressing an opinion. With Trump's numbers we do have 2 huge elections to judge them on, and that middling 40% number is where he has always been.

No they aren't.  Not necessarily.

Trump got way more votes in 2020 then he did in 2016, because turnout matters.  Biden got HUGE turnout - probably predicated on dislike of Trump.

Turnout matters.  If voters are unenthused about Biden they can also stay home.  I also pointed out the several possible third-party candidates that unenthused Biden voters could turn to.

Do not sleep or scoff at Trump being the GOP nominee.

[OttoVonBismarck]

No one is. We're saying the polls don't mean very much at this stage, and why.

Romney was beating Obama in the Gallup Poll at one point; Trump was never beating Hillary, and Trump was losing to Biden in a landslide. None of those things really came to pass.

That is why much of my point was actually based on electoral performance--because going off of current polling isn't wise. If I see polls with Biden down in the low 40s in the summer of 2024 I'd be more worried.

I have also said in a number of posts across this forum, repeatedly and consistently--any Republican can win in 2024. If you can look at 2016 and 2020 and think the election won't be tight and come down to the same few swing states, I don't know what to tell you. That means things are going to swing on a little bit of shifts in a few states, and anyone who feels confident they know what is happening are false.

But we can still make political analysis. I personally think Trump will prove a weaker candidate in the 24 general than most other GOP options. I also personally think his brand is too damaged in the suburbs of Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania to win those States.

The national opinion polls, 17 months out are a VERY abstract view of what is really like a 10 state election (most of those states are not being heavily polled individually right now.)

Of the few relevant states that have had recent-ish polls:

PA had Biden beating DeSantis by 9 points, and Kennedy (RFK Jr) beating DeSantis by 4 points. That doesn't tell us a lot, since I think either matchup is unlikely--and why the pollster didn't do Trump v Biden is anyone's guess. But it does suggest what both 2022 and 2020 showed, which is that Trump and large swathes of the Republican brand are struggling in the Midwest, and other data we've collected shows this is primarily a problem of the Midwestern suburb.

Again--these polls aren't worth much more than the national polls 17 months out, but they show me some things a little more interesting than national polling.

The litany of reasons the national polling isn't a great indicator of much should be well known at this point.

At the end of the day I don't know what cause there is to make such a fuss over the fact Biden might lose. Of course he might, anyone who thinks he doesn't have a chance of losing is crazy. But there's nothing in the available data that makes me think the Democrats are facing an apocalypse, particularly when they haven't even started campaigning--and Trump has.

[Barrister]

No one is. We're saying the polls don't mean very much at this stage, and why.
At the end of the day I don't know what cause there is to make such a fuss over the fact Biden might lose. Of course he might, anyone who thinks he doesn't have a chance of losing is crazy. But there's nothing in the available data that makes me think the Democrats are facing an apocalypse, particularly when they haven't even started campaigning--and Trump has.

Let's remember where this pile-up started.

Several people were saying "it doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is, they're all equally bad", or even "I hope Trump is the nominee - he'd be easier to beat in the general".

I don't think either statement is true.

Trump is demonstrably worse than any other GOP candidate by the sheer fact he openly tried to conduct a coup d'etat.  He's openly called for the Constitution to be suspended.

As for "easier to beat in the general" - as you have noticed Trump polls better than DeSantis.  Yes it's early, but he has name recognition through the roof and a dedicated minority of voters that view him as some kind of divinely-inspired candidate.

Any remotely intelligent person should be rooting for Trump to lose the GOP nomination race.

That's all I'm saying.

[Valmy]

(did you see the attack by Ted Cruz on the Ugandan "death to gays" law, and the attacks he got in response?) 

Yeah I did see that. Now granted twitter nuts are their own thing and don't really speak for most people and all but I couldn't help but notice him condemning the death penalty for homosexuality was him "going woke".

Which to me kind of says it all. DeSantis and his culture warriors are out there saying that wokeness is this dangerous and terrifying extremist ideology that is going to do all these unspecified horrible things. Like make all the kids trans or something. Yet it appears all you need to to to be a follower of this scary and terrifying ideology is disapprove of executing somebody for engaging in homosexuality. At least according to these twitter nuts.

I am not sure when the last time was a western country had the death penalty for homosexual acts, but I suspect it has been awhile so we have clearly been woke for a long time.

[Sheilbh]

I am not sure when the last time was a western country had the death penalty for homosexual acts, but I suspect it has been awhile so we have clearly been woke for a long time.

I could be wrong but my guess would be Germany and 1945.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Several people were saying "it doesn't matter who the GOP nominee is, they're all equally bad", or even "I hope Trump is the nominee - he'd be easier to beat in the general".

I don't think either statement is true.

Trump is demonstrably worse than any other GOP candidate by the sheer fact he openly tried to conduct a coup d'etat.  He's openly called for the Constitution to be suspended.

I think you put a lot more weight on the coup attempt. Which, let's be a little honest here. What sort of coup attempt doesn't involve the military? Or doesn't involve any elements of the State? He made a dangerous, rabble rousing speech, and he spent a month spreading lies about the election. Then a bunch of far right idiots committed a bunch of felonies by breaking into the U.S. Capitol. I am not saying Trump has no moral culpability, but nothing about that scares me about Trump, it actually tells me Trump doesn't know how a coup would work or how the government works, because interrupting that certification vote did nothing to change the reality of his repeated losses in State elections due to losing court case after court case.

I worry more about guys like DeSantis who actually IMO would have a better idea how to continue dismantling democracy. To me that is a bigger threat than a guy who was too lazy and inept to do most of what he screamed about the 4 years he was President.

As for "easier to beat in the general" - as you have noticed Trump polls better than DeSantis.  Yes it's early, but he has name recognition through the roof and a dedicated minority of voters that view him as some kind of divinely-inspired candidate.

What % of voters know who Ron DeSantis is, and what % of voters know who Donald Trump is? I am willing to bet a lot of money the first number is a lot lower than the second number.

Any remotely intelligent person should be rooting for Trump to lose the GOP nomination race.

That's all I'm saying.

Some Republican has to win the primary, and I don't see any viable contenders that are good options.

With a Trump 2.0 Presidency you have democratic backsliding and demagoguery and a lot of inept nonsense

With a DeSantis 2.0 Presidency you have democratic backsliding and a little less demagoguery, but a bit less ineptitude.

Those are both bad options, and the DeSantis option doesn't seem massively preferable to me, and could be worse.

[Josquius]

So. Pence in the running. He's a least bad option right?
Still a dickhead who wants to murder women and other nonsense but seemingly not anti democracy?

[Valmy]

I don't know if Pence is the least bad option but he is certainly proven himself committed to the Constitution so acceptable.

But he has no chance.

[viper37]

I am not sure when the last time was a western country had the death penalty for homosexual acts, but I suspect it has been awhile so we have clearly been woke for a long time.

South Carolina, 1873.
I don't know if it's Western enough...
Otherwise, Australia and UK in 1861, with the last execution having been in 1835.
We shall of course exclude Nazi Germany.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_punishment_for_homosexuality

[Valmy]

In 1874 South Carolina went woke.