Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[garbon]

Unless they see a correlation between that and their odds of staying in the country.

Wall paintings decide if children try to stay?

[Admiral Yi]

Wall paintings decide if children try to stay?

My thesis is that the ease of having your claim accepted or of going off the grid while awaiting your decision do impact asylum attempts, and that unicorns and rainbows do signal that ease.

[celedhring]

This just popped up in my timeline:




Tell me it's not a serious poll 

EDIT: Apparently the original poll gives just a % and the seats have been estimated by the Spanish site reporting it.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Electoral calculus gives labour 475 predicted seats https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/homepage.html

I expect Reform will not stand candidates in many plces so much of their vote share should probably be added to the tories.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Wall paintings decide if children try to stay?

My thesis is that the ease of having your claim accepted or of going off the grid while awaiting your decision do impact asylum attempts, and that unicorns and rainbows do signal that ease.

About 76% of the irregular entry folk are ultimately given leave to remain. My preference would be for them to be able to make applications from their safe place and arrive in the UK via conventional routes. They usually have family living in the UK which is why they want to leave France in the first place, it also limits the numbers of those who try because if your relatives are in, say, Germany, there is no point risking your life and losing several thousand pounds to come to the UK. Once we reduce the irregular crossings to Albanian gangsters and sundry desperadoes then I'd be very much in favour of a sterner regime.

[PJL]

There was a poll the other week that worked out that if Reform UK stepped down in Tory seats and most don't knows ended up voting for the Tories then Labour will still be the largest party but it would be in hung parliament territory.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah. There's been a poll with Labour on over 50% - I think that is plausibly the result you'd get if you plug the results into a predictor on uniform national swing

Things get pretty wild once one partied over 50% and the others under 25%. Uniform national swing is pretty blunt - but the latest MRP projection had Labour on about 470 seats which isn't far off and a majority of about 150

There are important differences, but commentators are definitely reading up on the Canadian 1993 election when the right went from governing to third place and almost wiped out in some areas. It feels pretty plausible now.

[Sheilbh]

There was a poll the other week that worked out that if Reform UK stepped down in Tory seats and most don't knows ended up voting for the Tories then Labour will still have a majority but it would be in hung parliament territory.

I don't but that for one second - there have been five pills for the reputable companies in the last week or so with Labour having an over 20% lead.

Separately in all the by elections and local elections the Reform Party has been seriously under-performing, which also reflects my experience that the second you step off the internet, no-one has heard of them (It also makes you realise how effective Farage was.)

Things could change and in a campaign they will definitely tighten. But I think that's just an outlier (and that it was mainly being published in order to put pressure on Sunak to move right).

[Richard Hakluyt]

When you piss off the likes of doctors, judges, lawyers, senior civil servants etc etc and you are supposed to be the conservative party ...well, its not going to go well for you.

[Jacob]

Removing the Jungle Book is an unnecessary unpleasantness only if you think lowering the number of undeserving applicants is not a worthwhile goal.

Alternately, you think it's unnecessarily shitty relative to its efficacy.

[Sheilbh]

My thesis is that the ease of having your claim accepted or of going off the grid while awaiting your decision do impact asylum attempts, and that unicorns and rainbows do signal that ease.

I think they're separate things but linked in another way.

The context of this is relevant. Excluding the Ukrainian, Hong Kong and Afghan schemes, last year the UK received it's highest number of asylum claims in 20 years.

20 years ago most decisions were made within six months and the end of year backlog of claims was always under 10,000, however about 75% of asylum claims were rejected. Last year most decisions take well over 6 months, there's a year end backlog of about 120,000, however 75% of claims are initially successful (and on appeal that increases to 85-90%.

There is absolutely a case and an argument for reducing the numbers. On their own terms the government have failed to do that and doing it would require the hard work of actually governing - it would involve legislating and close management of the "delivery" bits of the civil service. They're not showing much appetite or ability to do that so I think what we get instead is Disney villain cruelty - so it's less that the Jungle Book signals the relative ease of making claims in the UK, but that the removal of it signals the government's ongoing inability to actually do anything about that.

It is worth pointing out that - as many Tory MPs have noted - once you remove the Ukraine, Hong Kong and Afghanistan schemes there's basically no lawful way for someone to make an asylum claim in the UK, unless they travel here. I have no issue with quite strict border controls if we allow claims from outside the UK or take our fair share from the UNHCR. But we don't - and I think that basically encourages people to come because there is no other route.

As RH has pointed out the people making a claim here normally have a reason - there's been some really interesting stuff from lawyers who work in Calais on this. Often its family or an established diaspora in the UK, sometimes it's English. There is a perception that the UK is less racist/less likely to hassle people than other bits of Europe (particularly Greece, France and Italy) and also that you can disappear more easily here (which is the point the French government regularly make that the failure of having ID cards does not allow the police to check people's papers so people can disappear in the UK more easily). There's a mix there but it does mean there are pull factors in the UK and I think the perception of it being easy to disappear (relaltedly - we have a tight labour market and close to full employment) or likely to have a successful claim is part of that, but I think probably less than the other factors like diaspora, language and family. I'm not sure Jungle Book murals are necessarily a big part of it though.

[garbon]

I see the internet is abuzz with the purported identity of that bbc presenter and a supposed photo.

[Sheilbh]

Don't get this story as much as the Schofield one - but always nice to have an opportunity for a big chunk of the public to show their homophobia on social media

[Syt]

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage-blasts-mean-home-office-removal-of-mickey-mouse-art-at-childrens-asylum-centre-2464574

Nigel Farage blasts 'mean' Home Office removal of Mickey Mouse art at children's asylum centre
The former Brexit Party and UKIP leader, who often pushes the Government to crack down on Channel crossings, suggested the decision to target children was a step too far

Nigel Farage has criticised the Home Office's decision to paint over murals of cartoon figures at an asylum centre for lone children, describing it as "a bit mean".

i revealed on Tuesday that the immigration minister, Robert Jenrick, ordered the removal of artworks of figures such as Mickey Mouse and Baloo from The Jungle Book because they were "too welcoming" in April.

The Home Office confirmed that the work was carried out at the Kent asylum intake unit on Tuesday. It is understood that private contractors were used, after staff at the centre refused to act.

Despite Rishi Sunak having backed Mr Jenrick over the controversial move, senior Whitehall officials and some moderate Tory MPs are understood to be appalled.

Now, the former Brexit Party and UKIP leader, who often pushes the Government to crack down on Channel crossings, has joined them in suggesting the decision to target children was a step too far.

Mr Farage told i: "Whilst those crossing the Channel should not get four star treatment, this measure is a bit mean."

He added: "These kids are just pawns in a criminal enterprise."

The Prime Minister's spokesman suggested the decision was designed to "deter" asylum seekers from crossing the Channel as part of the Mr Sunak's promise to "stop the boats".

The spokesman said: "We want to ensure that children who come into our care are safe, secure, they're supported. And we need to make clear to broader arrivals that if you come here illegally, you will be removed.

"And ultimately, we want to deter people including families from making these dangerous profit crossings which are putting lives at risk."

Whitehall officials have privately expressed their disapproval at Mr Jenrick's order, with one telling i it was an "unforced error".

Another was surprised by Mr Jenrick's approach, i understands, having assumed he would take a more moderate stance on migration, while another accused him of trying to compete with his boss, the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, to be the toughest minister.

One former Tory former government adviser added: "The country is going to the dogs so we will instead focus on painting over a picture of Mickey Mouse to cheer up kids who have fled with only the clothes on their backs.

"What an absolute fucking disgrace."

Tory Peer Lord Kirkhope, a former immigration minister who oversaw the 1996 UN Bosnian refugee resettlement programme, described the decision as "unfortunate".

Labour has said Mr Jenrick, an ally of Mr Sunak, was "putting Britain to shame" and the Liberal Democrats described the order as "the worst kind of trivial nastiness" and a "waste of taxpayer money".

Natasha Tsangarides, associate director of advocacy at Freedom from Torture, said: "The news that the immigration minister has in fact made staff paint over murals at a refugee reception centre shows just how contemptible this Government really is.

"But the millions of caring people up and down the UK will not stand for this. And compassion and reason are winning. Just last week the Government suffered major blows with the Court of Appeal ruling its immoral Rwanda scheme is unlawful and key defeats to their cruel refugee ban Bill in the House of Lords.

"Instead of continuing to punish people who've already been through so much, this Government should concentrate on rebuilding an asylum system that treats people with dignity and kindness."

[Josquius]

I mean, he's not wrong.
But he's Nigel Fucking Farage.
It's literally his job to be wrong about things like this.

Don't get this story as much as the Schofield one - but always nice to have an opportunity for a big chunk of the public to show their homophobia on social media

First I've heard of this being a gay thing.
Guess thats my unconscious hetero-normative bias at work. Everything I've seen about this used neutral language and I assumed creepy old guy and young woman.

LOL at Gary Lineker's tweet: Sorry to disappoint the haters but it's not me.

So. Who hasn't been on lately...