The Off Topic Topic

[The Larch]

How the fuck does one "over-monetize" Magic: The Gathering?

That game is all about monetizing.  It's like saying someone is trying to over-monetize a casino...

According to the article by overproducing cards.

The primary concern is that Hasbro has been overproducing Magic cards which has propped up Hasbro's recent [earnings] results but is destroying the long-term value of the brand," Bank of America analyst Jason Haas wrote in November.

The oversupply of Magic cards means "card prices are falling, game stores are losing money, collectors are liquidating, and large retailers are cutting orders," Bank of America explained.

[garbon]

How the fuck does one "over-monetize" Magic: The Gathering?

That game is all about monetizing.  It's like saying someone is trying to over-monetize a casino...

According to the article by overproducing cards.

The primary concern is that Hasbro has been overproducing Magic cards which has propped up Hasbro's recent [earnings] results but is destroying the long-term value of the brand," Bank of America analyst Jason Haas wrote in November.

The oversupply of Magic cards means "card prices are falling, game stores are losing money, collectors are liquidating, and large retailers are cutting orders," Bank of America explained.

The strange thing is that I think mtg made a billion for thr first time last year.

[The Larch]

How the fuck does one "over-monetize" Magic: The Gathering?

That game is all about monetizing.  It's like saying someone is trying to over-monetize a casino...

According to the article by overproducing cards.

The primary concern is that Hasbro has been overproducing Magic cards which has propped up Hasbro's recent [earnings] results but is destroying the long-term value of the brand," Bank of America analyst Jason Haas wrote in November.

The oversupply of Magic cards means "card prices are falling, game stores are losing money, collectors are liquidating, and large retailers are cutting orders," Bank of America explained.

The strange thing is that I think mtg made a billion for thr first time last year.

That jives with what the article says, they're earning more through sales in the short term but loosing money in the long term by lowering the cards' value due to oversupply.

[garbon]

How the fuck does one "over-monetize" Magic: The Gathering?

That game is all about monetizing.  It's like saying someone is trying to over-monetize a casino...

According to the article by overproducing cards.

The primary concern is that Hasbro has been overproducing Magic cards which has propped up Hasbro's recent [earnings] results but is destroying the long-term value of the brand," Bank of America analyst Jason Haas wrote in November.

The oversupply of Magic cards means "card prices are falling, game stores are losing money, collectors are liquidating, and large retailers are cutting orders," Bank of America explained.

The strange thing is that I think mtg made a billion for thr first time last year.

That jives with what the article says, they're earning more through sales in the short term but loosing money in the long term by lowering the cards' value due to oversupply.

Feels like they might need to see sales actually decline this year, right?

[Jacob]

Feels like they might need to see sales actually decline this year, right?

They're forecasting.

If they forecast a decline in sales because they're seeing a decline in sales right now, it's not much of a forecast.

Their point is that Hasbro's actions is souring sentiment among their consumers, which is - BoA is forecasting - going to lead to a decline in the medium term even if short term they're making money.

[garbon]

Feels like they might need to see sales actually decline this year, right?

They're forecasting.

If they forecast a decline in sales because they're seeing a decline in sales right now, it's not much of a forecast.

Their point is that Hasbro's actions is souring sentiment among their consumers, which is - BoA is forecasting - going to lead to a decline in the medium term even if short term they're making money.

I know it is just weird that twice it has shown up in news (as I recall seeing earlier piece when it was just about mtg) that circulates around sites. Almost like there is a narrative that people are happy to push.

[Tamas]

I mean...

It sounds to me like what this is destroying is the second-hand market. How is that Hasbro's problem?

[Barrister]

Feels like they might need to see sales actually decline this year, right?

They're forecasting.

If they forecast a decline in sales because they're seeing a decline in sales right now, it's not much of a forecast.

Their point is that Hasbro's actions is souring sentiment among their consumers, which is - BoA is forecasting - going to lead to a decline in the medium term even if short term they're making money.

I know it is just weird that twice it has shown up in news (as I recall seeing earlier piece when it was just about mtg) that circulates around sites. Almost like there is a narrative that people are happy to push.

There was definitely an anti-Hasbro narrative going around about some change to the licensing agreement surrounding D&D.

I never dug deep enough into the issue to determine if the outrage was warranted, or typical internet nerd drama.

[Barrister]

I mean...

It sounds to me like what this is destroying is the second-hand market. How is that Hasbro's problem?

I mean it definitely could be.  Back in the 90s similar things happened to the sports cards and comic book markets - people were buying them as "investments", prices went up, manufacturers flooded the market, the second hard market collapsed, people stopped buying new product.

[Jacob]

I know it is just weird that twice it has shown up in news (as I recall seeing earlier piece when it was just about mtg) that circulates around sites. Almost like there is a narrative that people are happy to push.

I'm not sure I get what you're driving at?

Of course there's a narrative. That's what most media is, finding narratives and pushing them. That's also what forecasting is, looking at events and fitting them into a narrative that can be used to guide investing. So of course there's a narrative being pushed.

Hasbro has been making moves to alienate their consumers in the Wizards segment. That's a fact. Are you suggesting that there's something shifty in concluding this could negatively impact the profitability of that segment in the medium to long term?

[Grey Fox]

I mean...

It sounds to me like what this is destroying is the second-hand market. How is that Hasbro's problem?

It's akin to a  Windows Vista problem. If enthusiasts are not buying and pushing your products you are diying.

[Jacob]

I mean...

It sounds to me like what this is destroying is the second-hand market. How is that Hasbro's problem?

A few possible reasons:

1) People's spending patterns may be altered if they're buying something they think retains value, versus something that they believe do not?

2) There are a non-trivial number of stores that survive on selling MotG cards, including the second hand market. If - as I have seen claimed - these stores are important in maintaining communities and drawing in new players, undermining their business model may in fact be harmful to the medium to long term growth of the game.

Though it's not the only complaint. The other complaint is that their pace of pushing out new cards is so high that more casual players are leaving the game (and fewer new people joining).

It doesn't mean Hasbro doesn't have a clever strategy for their properties, of course. We'll see.

[Jacob]

There was definitely an anti-Hasbro narrative going around about some change to the licensing agreement surrounding D&D.

I never dug deep enough into the issue to determine if the outrage was warranted, or typical internet nerd drama.

In my read it's at least 50% "don't trust the man, man" sentiment. But conversely, there is also definitely an element of "yeah sure we could just wipe out the secondary cottage industries that have grown up around the licensing agreement, but we totally won't. Totally trust us." And that's not something that's particularly confidence inducing. And Hasbro did a pretty poor job of rolling out their proposed changes, which didn't help.

Which is to say, I think it's about 50% warranted and 50% internet nerd rage. But IMO from a product management perspective it was a fumble from Hasbro's side, whether or not the nerds are being unreasonable.

[PRC]

Just saw a great sign in a washroom at a university, it reads:

Trans

Noun

A person who needs to pee


It then goes on to describe how people should be respectful

I once saw some graffiti in a Pub bathroom in Vancouver (it was either the Ivanhoe or Cambie, real dive joints as I'm sure you know).  Anyways it was written in sharpie between the urinals and it said:

"Usually you see jokes written on the walls of men's bathrooms... but this time the joke's between your legs."

[garbon]

I know it is just weird that twice it has shown up in news (as I recall seeing earlier piece when it was just about mtg) that circulates around sites. Almost like there is a narrative that people are happy to push.

I'm not sure I get what you're driving at?

Of course there's a narrative. That's what most media is, finding narratives and pushing them. That's also what forecasting is, looking at events and fitting them into a narrative that can be used to guide investing. So of course there's a narrative being pushed.

Hasbro has been making moves to alienate their consumers in the Wizards segment. That's a fact. Are you suggesting that there's something shifty in concluding this could negatively impact the profitability of that segment in the medium to long term?

BB said what I'm thinking. I can't think of the last time I've heard details about a Bank of America forecast and now I've heard of it and the follow on forecast on nerd sites.