The Off Topic Topic

[Tamas]

If I live long enough I might still manage to see the times when instead of declaring doom because of overpopulation in X decades, we will be declaring doom in in X decades due to underpopulation.

[grumbler]

The three countries with the most emigrants to Canada are India, the Philippines, and China.  All three have considerable overpopulation problems.

[The Brain]

How are the numbers per capita?

[Barrister]

The three countries with the most emigrants to Canada are India, the Philippines, and China.  All three have considerable overpopulation problems.

But so do lots of other countries.  Nigeria.  Indonesia.  Bangladesh.  But we get hardly any immigrants from those countries.

[crazy canuck]

The three countries with the most emigrants to Canada are India, the Philippines, and China.  All three have considerable overpopulation problems.

All three also have a middle class professionals who come to Canada.

[Valmy]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

Why then is Canada taking in 500k per year?

Is today the future? Surely if there are fewer people in the world in the future there would be, you know, fewer people to immigrate.

Now I guess if the idea is that the whole world will just pile into the big western cities as the centuries roll on, well I guess that wouldn't be the worst thing.

I don't follow your logic.  If there are people in another country who can make a better life for themselves in Canada, they will likely want to come to Canada.  It is highly unlikely that will change in the future, even if over all population levels in the world decrease. 

The contrary is more likely - as populations become inverted in the future, the desire to come to Canada in the future will likely increase from current levels as the quality of life in other countries decreases.

Well how do we know that in the future Canada will always be better than those countries? Why would the quality of life in other countries decrease? Last I checked the gap between those countries and Canada has gotten smaller over the decades. China, India, and the Philippines all have had fast growing economies for awhile, eventually they are going to want all those middle class professionals to stay home.

And how did my general observations about what I think will be long term world wide trends become something about Canada?

[Josquius]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

Why then is Canada taking in 500k per year?

Is today the future? Surely if there are fewer people in the world in the future there would be, you know, fewer people to immigrate.

Now I guess if the idea is that the whole world will just pile into the big western cities as the centuries roll on, well I guess that wouldn't be the worst thing.

I don't follow your logic.  If there are people in another country who can make a better life for themselves in Canada, they will likely want to come to Canada.  It is highly unlikely that will change in the future, even if over all population levels in the world decrease. 

The contrary is more likely - as populations become inverted in the future, the desire to come to Canada in the future will likely increase from current levels as the quality of life in other countries decreases.

Well how do we know that in the future Canada will always be better than those countries? Why would the quality of life in other countries decrease? Last I checked the gap between those countries and Canada has gotten smaller over the decades. China, India, and the Philippines all have had fast growing economies for awhile, eventually they are going to want all those middle class professionals to stay home.

And how did my general observations about what I think will be long term world wide trends become something about Canada?

Anything is possible.
But.
1: people tend to think short term. They don't care that when they're 80 their country will be the equal of Canada. They need money and a decent life now.
2: with climate change et al signs do suggest Canada will maintain a higher quality of life than those more equatorial low lying countries. Though I doubt many think this long term at all.


On the original topic however I find it unlikely overpopulation plays a role in those countries emigration to Canada considering who the emigrants are.
In anything but the most abstract level of it impacting overall economy anyway.

[Sheilbh]

All three also have a middle class professionals who come to Canada.

Yeah and that's broadly true of most migration to developed countries. It is, broadly, only accessible to the global middle class at best.

The poorest migrate a lot as well but it's internal migration or to neighbouring slightly better off countries.

So you're right that actually the things that reduce push factors will reduce pull factors, I'm just not sure how they'll weigh out against each other in the end.

On the original topic however I find it unlikely overpopulation plays a role in those countries emigration to Canada considering who the emigrants are.
In anything but the most abstract level of it impacting overall economy anyway.

I agree. But I think that the same things that contribute to high birthrates (I hate "overpopulation") are female illiteracy, poverty and child mortality - those are things that are also push factors in international migration.

[The Larch]

Yeah and that's broadly true of most migration to developed countries. It is, broadly, only accessible to the global middle class at best.

The poorest migrate a lot as well but it's internal migration or to neighbouring slightly better off countries.

Not the case in Europe, or at least Southern Europe. People getting on rickety boats in the Med or jumping at the fences in Ceuta and Melilla do not tend to be middle class in their places of origin.

[Sheilbh]

Not the case in Europe, or at least Southern Europe. People getting on rickety boats in the Med or jumping at the fences in Ceuta and Melilla do not tend to be middle class in their places of origin.

Maybe but the poorest Syrians are in Turkey and Lebanon and Jordan (or still in Syria), the ones who can afford to try and get to Europe. Similarly with Eritreans or Afghans. The poorest in any society are normally the ones least able to make large cross-continental journeys (and least permitted by receiving countries).

But also I imagine even in Spain or Italy the numbers coming on small boats or jumping fences is a fraction of total migration. And lawful migration is broadly the preserve of the global middle class - it requires a certain level of wealth, education and language skills that are more available to that class.

[Syt]

https://twitter.com/RobertBohan/status/1613564244687224834?s=20&t=6S7vH85q1nhW1f3EVEAWAw

    

[Razgovory]

Ovis is sheep.  Ovid is a guy who wrote erotic poetry.

[Tamas]

MILITARY CODE FOR SURRENDER

No other possible explanation for the 19 in there.

[Sheilbh]

https://twitter.com/RobertBohan/status/1613564244687224834?s=20&t=6S7vH85q1nhW1f3EVEAWAw

    

Strongly reminiscent of this 2014 classic:

(Which is, incidentally, a terrifically put together explanation of a fairly complex and baffling conspiracy theory )

[Syt]

Yeah, I remember that one

Speaking of weirdos ... https://twitter.com/NickAdamsinUSA/status/1613571641426022401