The Off Topic Topic

[Josquius]

Just heard on NPR that the fertility rate in India has dropped below replacement.

That's good!

Africa is the only continent left with a high fertility rate but it continues to fall. It was 6.5 in the 1980s and now it is 4.1. It is nice that humanity is handling over-population seemingly organically without any crazy draconian policies...outside of China of course.

I presume that the entire world having upside down population pyramids isn't going to be that good either, though.

They key is to try and get less upside down pyramids and more gently sloping outwards trapezoids.

[Valmy]

Just heard on NPR that the fertility rate in India has dropped below replacement.

That's good!

Africa is the only continent left with a high fertility rate but it continues to fall. It was 6.5 in the 1980s and now it is 4.1. It is nice that humanity is handling over-population seemingly organically without any crazy draconian policies...outside of China of course.

I presume that the entire world having upside down population pyramids isn't going to be that good either, though.

Sure that is a challenge but a much easier problem to solve than over-population. All our advanced technology is supposed to require less labor for similar productivity right?

[Caliga]

Too bad that OJ, who as I understand it was the first black American (or one of the first?) to be portrayed as the high-status customer in ads/commercials, was you know OJ.

I think Sammy Davis Jr used to do the same sort of ads, and was probably doing them before OJ, who would have started in the early 1970s or later?

[Jacob]

That's good!

Africa is the only continent left with a high fertility rate but it continues to fall. It was 6.5 in the 1980s and now it is 4.1. It is nice that humanity is handling over-population seemingly organically without any crazy draconian policies...outside of China of course.

Well China's population decline is happening organically on top of the impact of the draconian one-child policy. In fact, these days China is beginning to experiment with policies to encourage more children. Some of them are draconian, of course, because the CPC is gonna CPC.

[Jacob]

Sure that is a challenge but a much easier problem to solve than over-population. All our advanced technology is supposed to require less labor for similar productivity right?

I don't think our social and economic systems are set up to support non-growing global population bases. There'll probably be some significant social upheaval along the way. In theory it could take us closer to a broadbased utopian society, but humanity doesn't have a perfect track record on that. We'll see, I suppose (or our descendants will).

[Barrister]

Sure that is a challenge but a much easier problem to solve than over-population. All our advanced technology is supposed to require less labor for similar productivity right?

I don't think our social and economic systems are set up to support non-growing global population bases. There'll probably be some significant social upheaval along the way. In theory it could take us closer to a broadbased utopian society, but humanity doesn't have a perfect track record on that. We'll see, I suppose (or our descendants will).

IIRC Japan's population has been declining for several years now, with projections for that decline to only increase in the future.  And they're having increasing problems as a result.

Of course much of the West would be having declining populations by now if not for immigration, but for various reasons Japan is reluctant to go that route.

It will be interesting to see once Africa, India and China hit declining populations - will immigration to the West just hasten their own decline, or will immigration in general slow down (I doubt it)?

[Valmy]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

[crazy canuck]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

Why then is Canada taking in 500k per year?

[Barrister]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

The reason people immigrate has little to do with their countries being crowded.  After all they wind up immigrating to big crowded western cities, not the countryside.

No, people immigrate for better financial opportunities.  Which the West will probably continue to provide.

[Valmy]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

Why then is Canada taking in 500k per year?

Is today the future? Surely if there are fewer people in the world in the future there would be, you know, fewer people to immigrate.

Now I guess if the idea is that the whole world will just pile into the big western cities as the centuries roll on, well I guess that wouldn't be the worst thing.

[crazy canuck]

Why do you doubt immigration would slow down? Surely most people when given the choice would prefer to remain in their own country.

Why then is Canada taking in 500k per year?

Is today the future? Surely if there are fewer people in the world in the future there would be, you know, fewer people to immigrate.

Now I guess if the idea is that the whole world will just pile into the big western cities as the centuries roll on, well I guess that wouldn't be the worst thing.

I don't follow your logic.  If there are people in another country who can make a better life for themselves in Canada, they will likely want to come to Canada.  It is highly unlikely that will change in the future, even if over all population levels in the world decrease. 

The contrary is more likely - as populations become inverted in the future, the desire to come to Canada in the future will likely increase from current levels as the quality of life in other countries decreases.

[Sheilbh]

The reason people immigrate has little to do with their countries being crowded.  After all they wind up immigrating to big crowded western cities, not the countryside.

No, people immigrate for better financial opportunities.  Which the West will probably continue to provide.

Yes. But the biggest reasons birthrates fall are female literacy, lower infant mortality and rising prosperity all of which might reduce the push factors?

[crazy canuck]

The reason people immigrate has little to do with their countries being crowded.  After all they wind up immigrating to big crowded western cities, not the countryside.

No, people immigrate for better financial opportunities.  Which the West will probably continue to provide.

Yes. But the biggest reasons birthrates fall are female literacy, lower infant mortality and rising prosperity all of which might reduce the push factors?

If a person becomes more educated and they presumably also become more knowledgeable about the benefits of coming to a country like Canada.

[Sheilbh]

If a person becomes more educated and they presumably also become more knowledgeable about the benefits of coming to a country like Canada.

Yeah it won't change the pull factors and it's true that a general increase in literacy and education may increase the knowledge of them.

[Barrister]

The reason people immigrate has little to do with their countries being crowded.  After all they wind up immigrating to big crowded western cities, not the countryside.

No, people immigrate for better financial opportunities.  Which the West will probably continue to provide.

Yes. But the biggest reasons birthrates fall are female literacy, lower infant mortality and rising prosperity all of which might reduce the push factors?

But the countries with the most migrants (to Canada at least) aren't the poorest countries, they're the middle-income countries.  And often from the wealthier parts of those countries.