The EU thread

[Zoupa]

Ok, so nothing in particular. 

Do you agree with Habeck that other Europeans should subsidize Germany's gas consumption?

[Jacob]

Seems reasonable that the EU should collaborate to ensure cohesion and facilitate collective action... though as usual within the EU there should probably be some give and take.

[Sheilbh]

And there will be understandable frustration and pushback from countries who, last time needed help to ensure cohesion etc, were lectured about not doing their homework and failing to live within their means.

[Zoupa]

And there will be understandable frustration and pushback from countries who, last time needed help to ensure cohesion etc, were lectured about not doing their homework and failing to live within their means.

Exactly.

[OttoVonBismarck]

What gives you the impression that Germany had any particular strategy regarding China, Russia, the US or even the EU? A strategy to me is something you actively pursue, whereas Germany just tried to benefit from a cozy status quo without any particular strategic goals.

The Economist had a good article this week about something I had long observed in my experiences in Germany and dealing with Germans on a number of issues, but had never quite been able to put into words. The way the Economist puts it--Germans have been living in a dream, and embracing fantasies.

That in and of itself isn't too shocking--most people around the world do exactly this thing, I think it just conflicts with more widespread stereotypes the West holds about Germany and Germans. When we think of Germans we think of engineers and pragmatists, people who would rather save for five weeks to buy something than buy it today on cheap credit. But on energy policy and Russia policy it is more like Germans have been living in the sort of fairy tale world of German fantasy tales of the past.

The concerted decision to "go big on Russia" involved multiple layers of delusion to be justifiable, particularly into the late 2010s and even 2020s (remember Nordstream 2 was still being vociferously defended until this very year.) Even worse though is the concerted decision--largely driven by people who believe in things that are not real, in the Green Party, to shrink other sources of energy.

Germany has around 800bcm of natural gas never exploited, and likely could quadruple or more domestic natural gas production with hydraulic fracturing. Instead, fairy tales (sometimes even promoted by Putin) deeply held by the Greens that fracking is the end of the world and causes cancer, radiation sickness, poisoned water etc etc were uncritically accepted and fracking was banned. Note that the technology had been used on a limited scale in Germany since the 1950s with no major environmental or health disasters of any kind.

After the Fukushima disaster, Germany decided to shutter all of its nuclear power plants--including three reactors to be shuttered soon that the Greens still are fairly insistent on shutting down. This was again, built upon fairy tale fears that are out of step with scientific and practical reality. Even worse, if you are concerned about the environment, much of the nuclear power production in Germany was replaced with biofuel and coal, which are unambiguously worse for the environment.

A segment of Germany's population wanted a fantasy land--one where they would have wide access to cheap energy, that bore no environmental costs because environmental harm occurring in Russia obviously aren't real in the minds of a German Green. Vladimir Putin, and Merkel were very happy to satisfy this fantasy.

[OttoVonBismarck]

Ok, so nothing in particular. 

Do you agree with Habeck that other Europeans should subsidize Germany's gas consumption?

I think they should, but it is entirely reasonable for people in Spain and such to do so with a lot of resentment towards Germany, who bears the vast majority of blame for Putin's invasion of Ukraine and threat to peace in Europe and who were more than happy to lecture their friends when they were in need during the Euro crisis.

At the end of the day an EU bloc-wide approach to natural gas supply issues will be good for the European project as a whole, but it won't be achieved without a lot of fuss and growing pains.

[Duque de Bragança]

Spain and Portugal are not linked to the Eurasian European gas pipelines (several projects to link them were cancelled as mentioned by Sheilbh) so Germany can pretty much forget it regarding Iberia.
They also have their LNG-ready ports, in Vasco da Gama's city for instance.

[Jacob]

And there will be understandable frustration and pushback from countries who, last time needed help to ensure cohesion etc, were lectured about not doing their homework and failing to live within their means.

Definitely. That falls under the "give and take"....

[Zanza]

Ok, so nothing in particular. 

Do you agree with Habeck that other Europeans should subsidize Germany's gas consumption?

No, Germany will of course pay for it. No subsidies necessary.

The gas shortage was a shared decision by the EU to not buy as much gas from Russia anymore as a reaction to the Ukraine War.

If gas supply alone was the German motive, we could just open Nord Stream 2 tomorrow and Russia would most likely sell us all the gas we might need. The rest of the EU would be rightfully outraged and common resolve gone.

Another unilateral action Germany could take would be to not export gas to our European partners anymore. Roughly half the Russian gas we import is exported downstream, e.g. to Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, even Poland. Similar consequences as above as that would be a gross violation of the common market as well.

We will not do neither of these things because we want to contribute to the common European cause of sanctioning Russia and moving towards becoming independent of them. But on the way there, as the decision to reduce Russian gas import was a shared decision, there should also be a common European policy towards alleviating the scarcity. Regardless of prior German (and Central European policies) that led to the dependency in the first place.

If such a common policy is not forthcoming, Putin has reached his goal to fracture European common resolve.

But no, we don't expect handouts. Just a common push to get over the next Winter and then get rid of Russian gas imports in 23 or 24 altogether.

[Zanza]

And there will be understandable frustration and pushback from countries who, last time needed help to ensure cohesion etc, were lectured about not doing their homework and failing to live within their means.

They are free to lecture us and as far as I can tell do so already.

[Zoupa]

The condescension certainly doesn't help your case, fyi.

[Jacob]

The condescension certainly doesn't help your case, fyi.

Zoupa, I love you dearly but that's clearly a shared European trait - not something unique to Zanza and the Germans 

[Zanza]

What gives you the impression that Germany had any particular strategy regarding China, Russia, the US or even the EU? A strategy to me is something you actively pursue, whereas Germany just tried to benefit from a cozy status quo without any particular strategic goals.

The Economist had a good article this week about something I had long observed in my experiences in Germany and dealing with Germans on a number of issues, but had never quite been able to put into words. The way the Economist puts it--Germans have been living in a dream, and embracing fantasies.

That in and of itself isn't too shocking--most people around the world do exactly this thing, I think it just conflicts with more widespread stereotypes the West holds about Germany and Germans. When we think of Germans we think of engineers and pragmatists, people who would rather save for five weeks to buy something than buy it today on cheap credit. But on energy policy and Russia policy it is more like Germans have been living in the sort of fairy tale world of German fantasy tales of the past.

The concerted decision to "go big on Russia" involved multiple layers of delusion to be justifiable, particularly into the late 2010s and even 2020s (remember Nordstream 2 was still being vociferously defended until this very year.) Even worse though is the concerted decision--largely driven by people who believe in things that are not real, in the Green Party, to shrink other sources of energy.

Germany has around 800bcm of natural gas never exploited, and likely could quadruple or more domestic natural gas production with hydraulic fracturing. Instead, fairy tales (sometimes even promoted by Putin) deeply held by the Greens that fracking is the end of the world and causes cancer, radiation sickness, poisoned water etc etc were uncritically accepted and fracking was banned. Note that the technology had been used on a limited scale in Germany since the 1950s with no major environmental or health disasters of any kind.

After the Fukushima disaster, Germany decided to shutter all of its nuclear power plants--including three reactors to be shuttered soon that the Greens still are fairly insistent on shutting down. This was again, built upon fairy tale fears that are out of step with scientific and practical reality. Even worse, if you are concerned about the environment, much of the nuclear power production in Germany was replaced with biofuel and coal, which are unambiguously worse for the environment.

A segment of Germany's population wanted a fantasy land--one where they would have wide access to cheap energy, that bore no environmental costs because environmental harm occurring in Russia obviously aren't real in the minds of a German Green. Vladimir Putin, and Merkel were very happy to satisfy this fantasy.

The article was posted here on the forum and is generally a sensible description.

But your editorializing that all of that is somehow to be blamed on the Greens does at least not fit my perception of what happened. 

The Conservatives ruled Germany 32 of the last 40 years. They decided - together with the Social Democrats - on foreign and energy policy. The Greens were in opposition. That said, public consensus has been against nuclear power for decades, originally driven by Greens, bit long adopted into the mainstream. Whereas gas was so far seen fairly neutral, except fracking, which was banned by the last conservative government (without any Greens involved). Not sure where this perception of German Greens comes from. They are by far the most hawkish party on Russia and China and have long criticized our dependency on fossil fuels and pushed for more renewables (which were massively harmed in the same year as the nuclear phase out after Fukushime - a double whammy by the Conservative-Liberal government of the day).

[OttoVonBismarck]

Spain and Portugal are not linked to the Eurasian European gas pipelines (several projects to link them were cancelled as mentioned by Sheilbh) so Germany can pretty much forget it regarding Iberia.
They also have their LNG-ready ports, in Vasco da Gama's city for instance.

The articles I was seeing suggested Spain would more likely be able to divert some gas to Italy, with which I believe it has transit links, as Italy is also in a bad way right now due to Russian supply issues.

We will not do neither of these things because we want to contribute to the common European cause of sanctioning Russia and moving towards becoming independent of them. But on the way there, as the decision to reduce Russian gas import was a shared decision, there should also be a common European policy towards alleviating the scarcity. Regardless of prior German (and Central European policies) that led to the dependency in the first place.

I don't really think Germany could even just snatch up gas that happens to be transiting the country bound for other locations. Those flows are usually based on legally binding, long-term contracts signed by various multinational corporations. I would be shocked if a modern OECD country like Germany can even within its own laws, just legally steal a bunch of gas that under the contractual laws of the country itself do not belong to the State. At least not without some sort of special legislation or something--and it would undermine confidence in the entire German legal and business system for a generation.

[OttoVonBismarck]

The article was posted here on the forum and is generally a sensible description.

But your editorializing that all of that is somehow to be blamed on the Greens does at least not fit my perception of what happened. 

The Conservatives ruled Germany 32 of the last 40 years. They decided - together with the Social Democrats - on foreign and energy policy. The Greens were in opposition. That said, public consensus has been against nuclear power for decades, originally driven by Greens, bit long adopted into the mainstream. Whereas gas was so far seen fairly neutral, except fracking, which was banned by the last conservative government (without any Greens involved). Not sure where this perception of German Greens comes from. They are by far the most hawkish party on Russia and China and have long criticized our dependency on fossil fuels and pushed for more renewables (which were massively harmed in the same year as the nuclear phase out after Fukushime - a double whammy by the Conservative-Liberal government of the day).

I mean the Greens were heavily against nuclear power and fracking, is why I bring them up. It is true they did not control the government, but the government did make a choice to accept their narratives and ideas. The government can actually help shape public perceptions, as far as I can tell no one in a position of responsibility in Germany even sought to lobby for or defend nuclear or fracking, which made it pretty easy for public opinion to turn so far against both. Given the tight business or personal ties between many leading Germans and Russia, perhaps it is unsurprising none felt the need to push back against narratives that ultimately benefitted the pro-Russia, pro-gas import desire.