Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Admiral Yi]

I think the 'should' is the fatal flaw.

Sure, but I think there is some middle ground we all could agree on.

[viper37]

Wtf Wtf?

And you see the problem as being grass roots led?

It implies (unintentionally I'm sure) that white people wouldn't - or worse, shouldn't - vote for people who aren't white.

Yeah, I'm not sure where that comes from at all.

Area with a large minority population choosing a MP who represents that population = cool. Ideally MPs should relate to the community they represent.

Parachuting in a minority MP to a 99% white safe seat so you can easily tick the minority representation box without actually giving any minorities representation = happens a few times and you can ignore it and think they're simply the best candidate without considering race (not that they have anything else to do with that seat...). When a pattern emerges... That looks pretty cynical.

if it's ok for non white people, than it has to be ok for white people too.

Representation should tend be local.  Not specifically the same riding, but close by.  A Pakistani from London would not offer better representation in a Pakistani neighbourhood of Edinburgh than a white person who lived all his life in this specific neighbourhood.

It's about regional interests, not ethnicity.  You got to know the specifics of local politics to better represent people, and ideally know most people around.

[Josquius]

Ah minorities can only relate to other minorities?

On the being Asian/muslim/whatever factor yes.
Or would you suggest a middle aged white guy is the right person to chat about the racism young black women face?

Cool, I love being othered.

You do fall into a lot of different categories to me. There will also be some where we fall into the same category.

[quote
if it's ok for non white people, than it has to be ok for white people too.

As mentioned being white isn't an issue for the majority of people in the country. Its not something most white people think about at all.
Those who do worry about this... Well labour must never target them and the tories try not to be seen to be targeting them too overtly. There are minor parties who specifically do target them.

Representation should tend be local.  Not specifically the same riding, but close by.  A Pakistani from London would not offer better representation in a Pakistani neighbourhood of Edinburgh than a white person who lived all his life in this specific neighbourhood.   

Yes.

However all else being equal the odds are higher the Pakistani outsider can relate better than a white outsider. 

The ideal likely match for a black Scouse taxi driver is a black Scouser who until entering politics was a taxi driver.

The regional factor is the key one. And this is where the grass roots minority selection beats the parachute candidate one.

[Valmy]

Sure but how often is all else equal?

[Josquius]

Sure but how often is all else equal?

Never. But then how likely is it you can get a candidate who is somehow a perfect match for every voter in the seat?

This is where the challenge lies. Though actually being local is one of the most important factors would you truly be represented by someone from your town who is otherwise your complete opposite rather than someone with the same outlook and background who comes from the other side of the country?

[Sheilbh]

I'm suddenly less sure Penny Mordaunt has much of a chance as her launch video is just cringe-worthy:
https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1546049184373121024?s=20&t=9HjYSaLU6jid4__XVDxt6A

It reminded me of something between the start of Little Britain and this:

As mad as it is - just saw clips of him and it feels like Shapps might be the best/least bad candidate

The way labour does it however strikes me as far more organic. Their minority MPs come from and represent seats with large minority populations; the way things are meant to be.

I've got similar issues with the phrasing of this.

But I'd also add that we're a far less diverse society than America or Canada. We're about average, I think, for big-ish West European countries. There are fewer areas with a large minority population and, in any event, there are shifts happening - such as the growth of the minority communities in suburbs and green belts around cities (like that article I posted on the shift in the Home Counties).

I'm not sure you'd actually get much representation if limited to areas with large minority populations. I also think it'd be more or less impossible for the Tories to have any minority candidates because their support tends to be the shires - I think that would create more of a risk of race becoming a defining divide between the parties which I think would be a bad thing.

The only disadvantage I see with this is minority heavy areas tend to be poorer so there's less of a role model sort of thing there, it's not the rich oxbridge educated minority guy but just one of the crowd, which for a lot of people in some minority groups will actually be a negative thing. But I don't think this is huge as its counterbalanced by those who recognise the colour of their skin may be what it is but their lives were totally alien.

I think the issue - and I think this is a problem for representation in Labour - is that there tend to be intersecting traits in some (but not all) areas with large minority populations. So for example they will often have a higher proportion of private rentals and basically be popular with young people moving into an area etc. I think that contributes to those constituencies often being to the left of Labour and means that they will pick candidates who are on the left too - my suspicion is that faction is disproportionatley minority in the Commons and out of power which may be part of the reason there's not much representation at cabinet level.

Parachuting smart young activists you think have a future in your party into safe seats is something that's always gone on in British politics. I don't have an issue with it also including women and minorities and I think it's a broadly good thing that given a selection of candidates local Tory associations will go for a minority candidate - I think local Labour parties have that imputed prejudice issue a bit more.

I do think there's a problem in labour with the way local parties are organised and sub organised into a thousand petty fiefdoms which can be quite indimidating to anyone who isn't part of the middle aged group of men who have been there forever.

All the parties are split along constituency lines. I'd say as someone who was a little involved in my local Labour party during the peak of the Brexit/Corbyn wars that it can incredibly unfriendly and pretty depressing thing. Just lots of very long rows, Trot middle-aged white men who've memorised the rule book etc. It was very grim and not welcoming at all despite actually loads of normal-ish, young-ish people wanting to get involved

Separately it feels like this contest is going to get nasty and, given that it's going to be short (possibly over by mid-August), it'll get there quick:

Dirty dossiers on S&M and affairs as Tory rivals turn on each other
Caroline Wheeler, Political Editor
Saturday July 09 2022, 6.00pm, The Sunday Times

No sooner had Boris Johnson announced his resignation last week after a series of scandals rocked Downing Street than the fresh mud-slinging begun.

The bitter civil war engulfing the Conservatives looks set to deepen as the party braces for what is likely to become the dirtiest leadership campaign in history.

So divided is the party that at least two rival leadership campaign teams have passed the Labour Party a digital dossier containing a series of lurid allegations about their potential opponents. Last week tongues were set wagging when a prominent supporter of one of the frontrunners in the race was seen meeting a senior Labour official at the White Horse pub in Soho, central London.

The documents include a catalogue of claims about the likely runners and riders, including allegations about their private lives and financial arrangements, among them the use of tax dodges and loans. At least one private investigator has been hired to dig into some of the candidates' financial arrangements. There are also claims of drug taking and the use of prostitutes.

A senior Tory party source said: "There are rumours being widely circulated about candidates getting involved in bondage, domination and sadomasochism, claims of inappropriate relationships and compromising explicit photographs that could be used as kompromat.

"It has even been claimed that one of the contenders requests that staff deliver their government papers to them while they are in the bath."

The negative briefing has sunk to such depths that even the staff who work for candidates are being targeted. One aide is accused of regularly attending orgies, something that is alleged to have precluded them from receiving the highest level of security clearance.

Details of alleged extramarital affairs are also being widely shared with Labour by Tories desperate to discredit their opponents. Hostile briefings between the rival camps raises the prospect of blue-on-blue attacks escalating during the course of the contest.

Dominic Cummings, the prime minister's former aide, has already gone public with some of the claims about affairs between the leadership hopefuls and their special advisers, known as spads.

In a tweet posted on Friday, he wrote: "At least three current candidates would be worse than Boris. At least one is more insane than Truss, clearly unfit to be anywhere near nuclear codes. At least one is a spad shagger."

He later tweeted: "Sorry, correction, I'm informed by Cabinet Office at least two spad shaggers . . . would be very Westminster for Boris to get the bullet cos of lies over sex/groping . . . only to be replaced by someone actually shagging their spad!"

Guto Harri, Johnson's director of communications, has already been forced to deny that he has been briefing against Rishi Sunak's campaign. He called the campaign team on Saturday morning to reassure them that he was not the source of hostile briefings against the former chancellor.

According to the Financial Times, Johnson's allies aim to stop Sunak becoming leader and are accusing the former chancellor of treachery for triggering the prime minister's premature exit. More than 50 Conservative MPs quit the government after Sunak and health secretary Sajid Javid resigned on Tuesday, leading Johnson to step down as Tory leader two days later. Close allies of Johnson said there was "huge anger" in Downing Street over Sunak's resignation. One senior No 10 official called Sunak "a treacherous bastard".

A government source said the skullduggery had reached new depths and was symptomatic of a party where scandal had become commonplace.

Last week it was claimed that Chris Pincher, the former deputy chief whip, had groped two men in a private members' club, triggering a chain of events that eventually led to the prime minister's downfall. Pincher denies the claims. It was the latest sleaze scandal to hit the Conservative Party, which has now lost four MPs over allegations of sexual misconduct, with a fifth being investigated by the police for rape.

A senior MP said: "Everybody is desperate for this sordid period of our party's history to end and for us to elect a new leader with bags of integrity who can draw a line under this disastrous episode. But that does mean that scandal now has a currency in the forthcoming leadership elections, which will likely make this the dirtiest campaign in history."

Many of the candidates who have declared, including Sunak, have avoided the traditional campaign launches and interviews with leading media outlets. Sunak launched his campaign by posting a video on Twitter.

It is understood this is to avoid the candidates being asked too many difficult questions as they progress through the first stages of a swift campaign.

Penny Mordaunt, the trade minister, is expected to run on a "zero-tolerance" ticket promising to clean up politics. One source feared this could make her vulnerable to a dirty-tricks campaign.

"If she is going to make this a dividing line, surely her rivals will do whatever it takes to undermine her and make her look like a hypocrite," they said.

Last night the briefing against her had already begun, with one Tory source claiming that Mordaunt had spent months priming allies for her resignation, only to remain in government and let others finish Johnson off. "Tom Hunt and Lee Anderson resigned from the government before she did. She's still there," they added.

"When it comes to the crux of it she has done absolutely nothing in government. There's a reason she's known as 'Penny Dormant'."

Meanwhile, Lord Goldsmith, a close ally of Johnson who has thrown his weight behind Nadhim Zahawi, has broken ranks to accuse Mordaunt of failing to heed concerns about the environment.

As international trade secretary, Goldsmith claimed that colleagues "couldn't persuade her of the importance of nature", adding: "You can do all the development you want, but lose the Congo Basin and hundreds of millions lose their rainfall and food and there's an unprecedented refugee crisis."

The Brexiteer candidates, who are all trying to win the support of the European Research Group and Common Sense group, are also turning on each other.

In one hostile briefing, Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, has been accused of not reading her own Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and staying quiet during key meetings. "It's important to remember, when she is flashing her Brexit credentials, that Liz campaigned for 'project fear' and the emergency budget. She also supported Theresa May's deal," a source in a rival camp added.

There have also been claims that whips, who have been ordered to stay neutral, have been ringing around on behalf of candidates.

With the field wide open and the potential for more than a dozen candidates to run in the contest, the knock-out rounds, which could start as early as Tuesday, are likely to be particularly brutal.

Previously, the parliamentary stage of the contest has lasted for weeks, but it is likely the 1922 Committee of backbench Tory MPs will announce on Monday that the slate is to be whittled down to the final two by the time the Commons rises for the summer recess on Thursday, July 21.

One source close to the 1922 Committee said active discussions are under way to truncate the second stage of the process, when party members vote for their preferred candidate. This could last for just three weeks, meaning a new Conservative Party leader — and prime minister — will have been elected by mid-August.

A Tory MP said: "The candidates will only have a matter of days to make their mark. The gloves are going to have to come off pretty quickly."

Candidates vying for support from the same wing of the party will be particularly eager to pick each other off in order to hoover up their rivals' support and make it through to the final two.

Previously, candidates have been accused of lending others support in order to ensure they knock out their closest rival. In 2019, supporters of Michael Gove accused Johnson's campaign team of "dirty tricks" after the former housing minister was narrowly eliminated in the battle for No 10.

In 2016, Theresa May's aides are alleged to have drawn up a dirty dossier on Johnson at a time when he was considered her fiercest rival. It was not used because his campaign imploded. The document, which was seen by The Sunday Times, contained a string of allegations about Johnson's sexual liaisons, quips from him about cocaine, and damning assessments of his character.

"If only we had taken more heed of that dossier," said one aide. "Maybe we would not have got into this mess in the first place."

Striking detain in another Times piece that there are a dozen "unexploded bombs" that might go off once there's a leader. Lots of other stories and scandals that haven't been reported yet but are clearly being talked about/looked at by journalists.

[Tamas]

[alfred russel]

Fair but Tory leadership elections are a little unpredictable (and I think they want this one done quick). They adopted the system in 2001. Since then:
2001 - 3 months
2005 - 2 months
2016 - 2 weeks (everyone's campaign imploded so May was the last man standing)
2019 - 6/7 weeks

I cashed out my bet last night and took an L of $117.40.

This is the way I see it: there are 7.5 weeks before the end of August. If you have 6 weeks for the postal ballot, that just leaves 1.5 weeks for narrowing the competitors to two, getting ballots ready, counting votes, resigning, etc.

More to the point: if they are rational, there is no need to rush this. Boris may take a lot of flack but that will associate with him. You don't want the new prime minister to be saddled with "chosen in a rushed leadership contest" for the next few years.

[The Brain]

I remain unconvinced that people should vote for politicians based on skin color.

[Valmy]

I remain unconvinced that people should vote for politicians based on skin color.

I can see if you are from a community and there are two basically equivalent politicians without anything else of significance to distinguish them you will choose the one from your community.

I did so myself in one election with two completely indistinguishable candidates but one was from Cedar Park, where I live, but the other was from Round Rock. So I went with the one who was from my town. But usually there is a little bit more going on.

[OttoVonBismarck]

I have to say I like that all the Tory leadership candidates have told Sturgeon she can pound sand on wanting a new referendum--as has even Keir Starmer. It's interesting that it wasn't long ago what I call the "Sheilbh" style of British spinelessness about secession was at the helm of both major parties, and is now out in both of them. It could do Britain some good in the long term to have politicians willing to stand up to Scottish truculence.

[Zoupa]

I remain unconvinced that people should vote for politicians based on skin color.

Good! What's also good is that absolutely nobody here has made that argument.

[Valmy]

I have to say I like that all the Tory leadership candidates have told Sturgeon she can pound sand on wanting a new referendum--as has even Keir Starmer. It's interesting that it wasn't long ago what I call the "Sheilbh" style of British spinelessness about secession was at the helm of both major parties, and is now out in both of them. It could do Britain some good in the long term to have politicians willing to stand up to Scottish truculence.

I think they learned a lesson from the Brexit debacle.

[alfred russel]

I have to say I like that all the Tory leadership candidates have told Sturgeon she can pound sand on wanting a new referendum--as has even Keir Starmer. It's interesting that it wasn't long ago what I call the "Sheilbh" style of British spinelessness about secession was at the helm of both major parties, and is now out in both of them. It could do Britain some good in the long term to have politicians willing to stand up to Scottish truculence.

All half measures. A true tory would stand up to them by reinstating prima noctae.

[garbon]

I remain unconvinced that people should vote for politicians based on skin color.

Good! What's also good is that absolutely nobody here has made that argument.