Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

I see that Simon Jenkins has written a bad column again.

I've mentioned before on how Ireland has somehow managed to get into an even worse situation on housing, with similar supply issues. At the minute, in the entire country there are only 851 properties available for rent

Needless to say rental price inflation is at a five year high and running at about 12%

[The Larch]

I see that Simon Jenkins has written a bad column again.

Just went to check, it's the "Building more homes won't solve anything" one? 

[Richard Hakluyt]

Oh well, since Simon Jenkins is always wrong it is axiomatic that we need to build more homes 

[The Larch]

Btw, what's exactly the "Street votes" program that the Tories seem to be promoting now to boost housing development?

[Richard Hakluyt]

Summary over here https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/gove-says-government-will-legislate-for-street-votes/5114990.article

I don't see it working unless the people who vote for "densifying" will make a huge financial killing.

[Sheilbh]

Just went to check, it's the "Building more homes won't solve anything" one? 

Yes.

Summary over here https://www.housingtoday.co.uk/news/gove-says-government-will-legislate-for-street-votes/5114990.article

I don't see it working unless the people who vote for "densifying" will make a huge financial killing.

Yeah that's the theory. There's two strands to need to build more homes the one we normally focus on is just new builds. The need to encourage/enable developments on brown and greenfield sites. The other thing is to encourage densification of the suburbs - which I think is especially a thing in the bigger cities. In London you can still be in parts of Zone 2 on the Tube map and you're basically have areas with two storey, single family homes.

It's been wildly misreported as a proposal to allow communities to vote on planning applications. It doesn't do that - and it shouldn't because that would provoke civil wars in every community in the country

Basically the proposal is that if at least 20% of residents submit a proposal for a "street plan", basically a design code, then the council has to hold a binding local vote on it. If that passes every property on that street has planning permission for developments that are within the "street plan". There's already something relatively similar where there's a blanket planning permission for an area for loft conversions, for example, but this goes further so it would allow adding extra floors or even permission to build another home on the property (for example infilling between semi-detached properties or over/to replace garages). It's still subject to certain rules particularly around traffic intensification and sunlight access (so I don't think it's allowed to cover adding extra parking spaces for example) because the intent is to densify the area. The theory is that it may only be a few property owners who want to do that type of development, or who can afford it, but it creates an incentive for everyone else on the street to support it because they can then sell on their property with planning permission for an extension or a granny flat or a manard roof or adding a full floor etc which should increase the value of their property too - and would likely change the market so actually, if there's a street plan, individuals will sell to developers who can afford to build extra properties or floors and sell them on.

The idea is from Policy Exchange who are a centre-right think tank and the idea is basically what Jos always says, that the way to encourage densification/building is to give current residents a stake. Here, because it'll increase the value of their property too even if all you've done is approve the plan. It's an idea that's done the rounds and has been endorsed by lots of YIMBY groups and has been supported (as a private member's bill - the government's adopted it) by MPs from most of the main parties and by policy guys from the left as well as the right.

It's not a solution to the housing crisis but I think it's possibly part of a solution for densification. Most UK cities have this ring of Metroland early suburbs, often late Victorian or early 20th century. At the time they were proper suburbs because they'd just got a train station but are now pretty central because of how the rest of the city has developed. It won't solve the housing crisis, but it will help if those areas start to densify and merge a little bit more into the centre.

The other bit that sounds good is the proposal to have a levy on developments that goes directly to local councils (and is apportioned so each layer of the local council structure gets extra funding). At the minute I think a lot of that is done by agreement between the council and the developer, which I imagine is heavily negotiated so it's probably really variable across councils. But I've seen less detail/coverage of this.

Edit: Also it is just a trial at this stage - but the proposal is to put the legislation in place to allow for a trial and, if it works, roll it out nationwide. Incidentally the same groups who've been behind this idea are now pushing a similar idea about turning parking alleys of garages into small residential mews houses and I wouldn't be surprised if they succeed on that as well.

[garbon]

Unrelated point but zone 2 isn't a rigid boundary. I recall when far out Stratford wasn't part of zone 2.

[Richard Hakluyt]

Thanks for the summary Sheilbh.

Very relieved to hear that there will be no vetoes on neighbours' extensions or conservatories etc etc; which would have led to blood-curdling civil war worse than we have seen for centuries 

In general terms I am in favour of bringing the NIMBYs round with financial incentives; these are pretty non-existent right now so most of the current NIMBYism by householders is probably rational.

[Sheilbh]

Simon Schama voice: "the Great Anarchy started when Janet, from Pinner, erected this conservatory."

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/13/uk-should-not-fear-eu-trade-war-frost-backs-ripping-up-protocol

UK should not fear EU trade war, says Frost as he backs ripping up protocol

Former Brexit minister says UK 'cannot be defeated' by Brussels in provocative Telegraph column

The former Brexit minister David Frost has said the UK should not fear a trade war with the EU.

In a provocative newspaper column, he said the UK "cannot be defeated" by Brussels and needed to "make sure it is ready" for the consequences of a unilateral move to scrap parts of the Northern Ireland protocol.

The foreign secretary, Liz Truss, is expected to announce plans for legislation next week to disapply some of the protocol in a risky move that could result in sanctions or even the suspension of the trade deal that Lord Frost negotiated in December 2020.

Writing in the Daily Telegraph about the potential move, Frost said: "We may, of course, face EU retaliation, although it would be disproportionate to the trade involved, only arguably legal and entirely self-defeating. I am not convinced every EU member's heart would be in it either. Logic may yet prevail. But if it does happen, it will complicate things, but we should not fear it."

Adding to tensions with Europe, Jacob Rees-Mogg claimed on Friday the EU "wants to make the UK feel bad about having left the European Union". But the Brexit opportunities minister told GB News he doubted the EU would retaliate with something as severe as a trade war if the UK were to remove parts of the protocol, saying it would be a "pretty silly" thing to do.

He questioned whether Brussels would even get the support of all member states. "The European Union would need unanimity and it seems to me that's a pretty high bar to get," he told GB News on Friday.

He also argued the EU would be punishing its own voters by introducing a trade war at a time of rising inflation and the cost of living crisis. "Do they really want to make prices even higher for their consumers and their voters? I think that's an interesting and important question."

"The EU ... may decide it wants an act of self-harm, that is not under our control, but it would be a pretty silly thing to do," he added.

Truss has argued she would have no option but to act if the EU did not concede to the UK's demands to scrap the checks on goods crossing from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. It is a high-stakes move that is testing relations with EU leaders but is also timed to exploit the lack of appetite in Europe for a trade war with a former ally at a time when political focus is on Russia and the expansion of Nato.

Frost has become one of the most vocal critics of the Brexit deal since he quit his role in December. In his column he defends the government's decision to go ahead with what Boris Johnson had called his "oven-ready" deal, arguing the UK had no choice but to sign the protocol as it was the only way to realise Britain's departure from the EU.

"It was the right thing to do. If we hadn't, I think we would still be in the EU now," he said.

Earlier this week Frost told the US president, Joe Biden, who has invested much of his career in supporting peace in Northern Ireland, to butt out of UK business.

"I get slightly frustrated when we are told by a third party, albeit a very important one in this context, how to manage these issues," he told a thinktank in the US. "It is our country that faced terrorism, faced the Troubles. I am old enough to remember having to check under my car every morning, as a diplomat, before I went to work. Most people were very affected in one way or another by this."

His remarks come as a delegation of influential US Congress representatives, including the head of the ways and means committee, Richard Neal, plan to fly to London amid growing concern in the White House about spiralling tensions over the Northern Ireland protocol.

[Richard Hakluyt]

One of an assortment of non-entities who stoke the old brexit flames to try and keep themselves relevant and embiggened. No doubt we will also hear from Mark Francois again soon 

Edit : I always forget that Mark is his first name, but using his middle name is a cheap shot hence the edit.

[Sheilbh]

One of an assortment of non-entities who stoke the old brexit flames to try and keep themselves relevant and embiggened. No doubt we will also hear from Mark Francois again soon 

Yes.

Although I'm also not convinced that "Telegraph columnist writes insane Brexit column" is necessarily news for other papers.

I did love the idea doing the round in Brexit ultra circles that Frost should give up his peerage to become Tory candidate in the Tiverton and Honiton by election. Because it would probably that not only would he lose but he wouldn't be in the Lords any more either.

[Josquius]

"It was the right thing to do. If we hadn't, I think we would still be in the EU now," he said.

I note a contradiction here.

[Sheilbh]

Mixed signals in Stormont - apparently the DUP won't nominate or support a speaker, which means the Assembly can't open at this point. That was called for by TUV and suggests the DUP may be more worried (at this point) about the challenge from more hardline parties than getting back. As I say I think it is in the DUP's interests to get the Executive and Assembly up and running again - but they have six months and probably not much will happen until they're close to that deadline. Although they have already said they're perfectly happy to go to an election every six months for as long as it takes (this isn't true ).

On the positive side, Michelle O'Neill who will be nominated First Minister by Sinn Fein has used the phrase "Northern Ireland" for the first time. Sinn Fein have confirmed this was "as an attempt to show she wants to be a First Minister for all" - which is a good start.

[Sheilbh]

The anti-WFH stuff is crazy for many, many reasons. But I'm seeing this Johnson line getting dragged a lot online.....but based on me it's not totally not true

Jason Groves
@JasonGroves1
Boris Johnson on wfh culture: 'You spend an awful lot of time making another cup of coffee, getting up, walking very slowly to the fridge, hacking off a small piece of cheese, then walking very slowly back and then forgetting what it was you're doing...'