Brexit and the waning days of the United Kingdom

[Sheilbh]

Britain Elects' prediction range for tomorrow's local elections:


The Labour fightback and moving into second in Scotland looks promising.

The Tories tried to manage expectations by pre-briefing that they were expecting to lose 800 councillors but that was never likely and, importantly, the last time most of these seats were up for election was in 2018 (just before Salisbury) so at just about the peak of Corbynism so Labour are competing from a pretty high base. A better example of how the Tories is doing is that they are generally campaigning as "Local Conservatives" and emphasising local government, explicitly telling voters to ignore Westminster and focus on local issues and generally using teal instead of blue on their campaign material - which doesn't seem like a party comfortable with how its brand will be received

But there's a relatively large range of areas that can be looked at and maybe give an idea of what's going on - all of London, Scotland and Wales plus some blue and red wall areas.

[Josquius]

Also worth noting the huge amount of independents one finds in traditional Labour areas are usually just shy tories. In Wales that will be the key factor.
I'm surprised there has yet to be a decent journalistic investigation into this pheneomna. A trick they get away with

[Richard Hakluyt]

Surely the number of Labour candidates who are just shy tories is more disturbing 

[Tamas]

Surely the number of Labour candidates who are just shy tories is more disturbing 

 

[Tamas]

So a couple of days ago the Environment Secretary made a "let them eat cake" comment on the cost of living crisis by suggesting that people should solve the crisis by buying supermarket own-brand stuff instead of the expensive brand, and of course it generated some mild outrage.

Then, comes in a Guardian columnist, who seemingly thought the outrage was not because how the original comment lacked perspective and was full of contempt, but rather, because of the outrageous notion of buying supermarket-brands rather than going broke. I think this because she took the original comment and wrote a pros and cons of supermarket brands article: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/may/04/the-pros-and-cons-of-buying-supermarket-own-brand-food

[garbon]

In area that I affectionately refer to as 'pee corner' I saw several people gathered this morning who then dispersed to give out Labour flyers. I think one of them was one of the local candidates.

[garbon]

So a couple of days ago the Environment Secretary made a "let them eat cake" comment on the cost of living crisis by suggesting that people should solve the crisis by buying supermarket own-brand stuff instead of the expensive brand, and of course it generated some mild outrage.

Then, comes in a Guardian columnist, who seemingly thought the outrage was not because how the original comment lacked perspective and was full of contempt, but rather, because of the outrageous notion of buying supermarket-brands rather than going broke. I think this because she took the original comment and wrote a pros and cons of supermarket brands article: https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/may/04/the-pros-and-cons-of-buying-supermarket-own-brand-food

I didn't get that article as felt like she was just doing a lazy buzzfeed listicle but then decided to talk about food quality when people are starving.

[Tamas]

Yeah it seemed like a very middle class "I am worried the cost of living crisis might put a dent into the level of my comfort. Am I right to worry?" article. It'd be much better placed in the Telegraph.

[Josquius]

Surely the number of Labour candidates who are just shy tories is more disturbing 

You've turned Corbynite?

[Sheilbh]

Yeah it seemed like a very middle class "I am worried the cost of living crisis might put a dent into the level of my comfort. Am I right to worry?" article. It'd be much better placed in the Telegraph.

I mean it's the Guardian. It's a pretty middle class newspaper.

It's the wild swimming and Ottolenghi wing of the middle class, but it's not exactly the voice of the worker.

[Tamas]

Yeah it seemed like a very middle class "I am worried the cost of living crisis might put a dent into the level of my comfort. Am I right to worry?" article. It'd be much better placed in the Telegraph.

I mean it's the Guardian. It's a pretty middle class newspaper.

It's the wild swimming and Ottolenghi wing of the middle class, but it's not exactly the voice of the worker.

Fair enough. Article is still in bad taste though.

[Josquius]

Yeah it seemed like a very middle class "I am worried the cost of living crisis might put a dent into the level of my comfort. Am I right to worry?" article. It'd be much better placed in the Telegraph.

I mean it's the Guardian. It's a pretty middle class newspaper.

It's the wild swimming and Ottolenghi wing of the middle class, but it's not exactly the voice of the worker.

My ultra labour trade unionist uncle was a guardian reader 😔

It definitely has the whole granola munching "just get poor kids to listen to brahms and there'll be no need for crime!" angle too, but I do think it has a decent portion of its readership amongst the older, unflinching, traditional working class.
The daily mirror being the only other option it's easy to see why.

[Sheilbh]

Oh I love the Guardian. But I'm not sure I'd draw a massive class distinction between its readership and the Telegraph's or any other broadsheet.

I also think the Guardian has an incredibly successful online media business - I think it's after only the BBC in terms of online views. By not having a paywall (and good design - not unreadable with so many ads like most other free U.K. news sites) it is probably more influential/important than it's ever been. Arguably it's a little disproportionate, especially for overseas perspectives/reads on the UK.

But it still has its institutional foibles - like the fondness for wild swimming

[Richard Hakluyt]

Surely the number of Labour candidates who are just shy tories is more disturbing 

You've turned Corbynite?

Of course not, he is an anti-western unelectable turlingdrome; but I would appreciate it if Labour adopted a few left wing policies. Sometimes I wonder if Starmer, as former head of the CPS, has a risk-averse civil service mindset. A bit of boldness would not go amiss, the country is in a mess and there is little point in being elected if you are not going to do anything about that.

[Sheilbh]

Of course not, he is an anti-western unelectable turlingdrome; but I would appreciate it if Labour adopted a few left wing policies. Sometimes I wonder if Starmer, as former head of the CPS, has a risk-averse civil service mindset. A bit of boldness would not go amiss, the country is in a mess and there is little point in being elected if you are not going to do anything about that.

The most interesting and bold stuff has come from Rachel Reeves as Shadow Chancellor - the £30 billion a year until 2030 spend on energy transition is pretty bold. It's also the only commitment I've seen from any party to actually spend as much of their GDP as economists think is necessary to meet net zero targets. It would be a separate ring-fenced debt pool, in theory debt to fund capital investment rather than current spending.

Similarly I think the plan to scrap rates and replace it with an entirely new local business tax system is good - I know some people with a small business and rates are one of their biggest complaints. It's more of an issue from what I've heard from people moaning than their rent.

I think the stuff on unions is really good and important too.

But even away from where I think they have been pretty bold - which is the economy - there's something to be said for just returning to New Labour era competence and priorities