Refractory Gauls, or the French politics thread

[Duque de Bragança]

It's 20.00 (UTC+2) so some results, semi-official:

Macron 28,6 %
Marine 24,2 %

Mélenchon third as predicted, around 20 %. Quite a performance in this context for the biggest poutinolâtre (primus inter pares?) of this campaign.

Disaster for Pécresse, under the 5% threshold, meaning among other most campaigning expenses won't be paid, and disappointment for Zemmour, under 7%.

 

[Sheilbh]

Stronger than expected for Macron. For Le Pen that's about what the polls were saying.

The really striking thing is after 2017's immolation of the PS, the LR joining them. The two dominant parties even two elections ago on about 6-7% now:


Now the slightly worrying thing is in the system v anti-system framework, the anti-system candidates are on about 60%. Last time around Melenchon supported abstention I think, he'll probably do the same again - and turnout with that 20% will be key.

Pecress, Jadot and Roussel have already endorsed Macron to beat the far-right. Ciotti (who came second in the LR primary) won't vote for Macron. The key now is turnout - my worry is that this result might make people a little more comfortable come the second round.

Edit: Melenchon has, like last time, emphatically said none of his supporters should back Le Pen, but that's it.

[Duque de Bragança]

Stronger than expected for Macron. For Le Pen that's about what the polls were saying.

Polls predicted both would be ahead, so not a big surprise. That's the strongest voting ever for the right of the right.
Macron is about average, that's somewhat positive, given the down trend he was until the elections

The really striking thing is after 2017's immolation of the PS, the LR joining them. The two dominant parties even two elections ago on about 6-7% now:

Macro's primary objectives.

Now the slightly worrying thing is in the system v anti-system framework, the anti-system candidates are on about 60%. Last time around Melenchon supported abstention I think, he'll probably do the same again - and turnout with that 20% will be key.

He could also call for blank voting.  Official line, "not a single vote to the extreme right". Almost a Macron endorsement. So much for an anti-system candidate.

Pecress, Jadot and Roussel have already endorsed Macron to beat the far-right. Ciotti (who came second in the LR primary) won't vote for Macron. The key now is turnout - my worry is that this result might make people a little more comfortable come the second round.

Pécresse really wants LR to disappear by saying so. Zemmour predicted it, incidentally.
However, that's not a party position so Ciotti or her electors are in no way bound, as LR reminded before the results.

[The Larch]

Apparently Ria Novosti is reporting some "alternative facts":

[Razgovory]

 Zemmour lost so that's good.

[Sheilbh]

Very, very unlikely to happen but there's still about 3 million votes to count and Melenchon has closed the gap on Le Pen to about 950,000. Not likely - but not impossible, the rate appears to be flattening a little. But it certainly looks like the gap will be narrower than expected, he might be up to 22-23%


Pecresse is now in fifth so has the humiliation of only being behind Macron, Le Pen, Melenchon and Zemmour - and not also the Greens. On just how catastrophic the night's been for PS she's behind them Lasalle's slight weirdness, the Communists (which I don't think has happened since the PS were created? ) and Dupont-Aignan.

The weirdness with the weakness of PS and LR - and this is what I mean by French presidential elections becoming a personalist form of democracy - is that they still dominate regional and local elections because they have a party infrastructure, activists etc. While at this level you have Macron - a redemptive leader who doesn't have a traditional party but "supporters"; Le Pen - who has a very small party structure and is, despite attempts to break this, based around these presidential elections; and Melenchon who is strongly for the whole idea of social movements, but again has not really created any of the normal infrastructure of a traditional democratic party. At some point it feels like those two democracies - traditional, left-right, party at the local level and populist/personalist at the national - will clash

[Admiral Yi]

Loads of examples out there. On the trans example for instance the whole manufactured toilet nonsense, the general language of cultural Marxism (literal nazi propeganda), book banning, warped appeals to science, etc...

I would like to defer to the wishes of the Le Pen fanboi and continue this discussion elsewhere but I can't find a suitable thread on the first six pages.

[Jacob]

Loads of examples out there. On the trans example for instance the whole manufactured toilet nonsense, the general language of cultural Marxism (literal nazi propeganda), book banning, warped appeals to science, etc...

I would like to defer to the wishes of the Le Pen fanboi and continue this discussion elsewhere but I can't find a suitable thread on the first six pages.

Make a new one?

[The Larch]

Results by region:

[celedhring]

I'm not that clued in the minutia of French politics, but what were the most significant differences between Zemmour's and LePen's flavors of far right?

[Sheilbh]

Again from a UK perspective this is so weird - basically Macron relies on the over-60s (that's a narrower age base than even the Tories here, where the cross-over age is 39):

[The Larch]

Results in the main cities, where Macron and Melenchon take by far the most votes (Le Pen doesn't even crack the Top 5 in Paris, and only gets more than 10% in Marseille):

[Duque de Bragança]

Very, very unlikely to happen but there's still about 3 million votes to count and Melenchon has closed the gap on Le Pen to about 950,000. Not likely - but not impossible, the rate appears to be flattening a little. But it certainly looks like the gap will be narrower than expected, he might be up to 22-23%

Mélenchon's remontada is over with Mélenchon's followers blaming the communists for making it to the run-off.
The communist candidate also had the "bad" idea of putting (quality) meat in his vision of French gastronomy along with wine (a couple of glasses only) and cheese, hence infuriating the the vegan and vegetarian wing of Mélenchon's party. 
The same Mélenchon who in the previous election declared he switched to quinoa and lost 6 kilos. 

Pecresse is now in fifth so has the humiliation of only being behind Macron, Le Pen, Melenchon and Zemmour - and not also the Greens. On just how catastrophic the night's been for PS she's behind them Lasalle's slight weirdness, the Communists (which I don't think has happened since the PS were created? ) and Dupont-Aignan.

If you say SFIO, the forefather of the PS, it happened most of the time but yes, starting with Mitterrand's
manipulation and then neutering of the PCF they have been consistenly behind.
As for Pécresse, saying she will vote for Macron shows for a lot of people her true colours, and dooms her party. LR won't have 50 % of the campaign paid as the 5% threshold so she already started an appeal to help pay for the campaign. She should send the bill to

Palais de l'Élysée
55 rue du Faubourg-Saint-Honoré
75008 Paris, France

The weirdness with the weakness of PS and LR - and this is what I mean by French presidential elections becoming a personalist form of democracy - is that they still dominate regional and local elections because they have a party infrastructure, activists etc. While at this level you have Macron - a redemptive leader who doesn't have a traditional party but "supporters"; Le Pen - who has a very small party structure and is, despite attempts to break this, based around these presidential elections; and Melenchon who is strongly for the whole idea of social movements, but again has not really created any of the normal infrastructure of a traditional democratic party. At some point it feels like those two democracies - traditional, left-right, party at the local level and populist/personalist at the national - will clash

PS is pretty much dead outside of Paris and a few isolated outposts and/or in the way of total recycling by LREM. The same fate could await LR in the coming legislative elections.

RN is much more of a traditional party than LREM, like it or not, however, the lack of proportional representation hurts them a lot. They do fine on European elections as well, as a matter of fact.

Final results, according to the Interior Ministry:



The last two, trotskyite parties, made almost 10% in 2007, and 10% if one includes the third Trot, Gérard Schivardi

[Sheilbh]

PS is pretty much dead outside of Paris and a few isolated outposts and/or in the way of total recycling by LREM. The same fate could await LR in the coming legislative elections.

Didn't the PS win the regional elections last year? In regional elections they're still the force - PS and LR between them got 60% of the vote, but then at a national, presidential level they're below 7%.

It's a clash of different structures of democracy - traditional party democracy in the regions and more personalist, movement, media democracy at the national level.

RN is much more of a traditional party than LREM, like it or not, however, the lack of proportional representation hurts them a lot. They do fine on European elections as well, as a matter of fact.

That's exactly what I said

[Duque de Bragança]

I'm not that clued in the minutia of French politics, but what were the most significant differences between Zemmour's and LePen's flavors of far right?

A bit to the left economically as in nationalisations of motorways (positively leftist or socialist by US standards), more of a social side with clinging on to retirement at 60 (if one started to work before 20 and having 40 full years of work) and a much toned down rhetoric on immigration though they are not that far apart, as in theory Pécresse (mere PR for her I believe).

In detail, Marine focussed on purchasing power, reinstating the wealth tax (partially removed by Macron), won't go back on medically assisted procreation for lesbians, no remigration minister (interior minister is enough) and has no qualms about accepting Ukrainian refugees. The last point Zemmour first said no saying they should be helped in neighbouring countries then somewhat changed but it's still not clear.

Bottom line, Zemmour made Marine look moderate or mainstream at least. The rest of their agendas are not too far apart.