http://news.yahoo.com/no-person-got-shot-stabbed-slashed-murdered-nyc-153318577.html
QuoteIt may be a small — or, rather, nonexistent — number, but it's a heartening statistic: there were no shootings, stabbings, slashings, or murders in New York City between around 10:30 p.m. Sunday night and 11:20 a.m. Tuesday morning, the NYPD said, according to NY1. Police can't remember the last time that happened.
We should point out that Monday wasn't entirely free from gunshots. Per the New York Daily News, a teen accidentally shot himself in the thigh Monday.
The murder rate has been so low this year that the 2012 murder count for New York will likely end up hovering around 400. Last year 515 people were deemed homicide victims, according to the NYPD, and that number included 27 people who either weren't assaulted in that year or whose deaths weren't deemed homicides until that year.
That said, it's not all good news for crime in the city. In October Graham Rayman of the Village Voice wrote that "for the first time in 20 years, New York City might record an overall rise in crime." Rayman explained that while the homicide rate drops "other crime indicators shows the opposite." Looking at the week between November 12 through 18, total crime was up by 3.31 percent in the city compared to 2011.
I guess the self-inflicted wound doesn't count as it wasn't a crime. :showoff:
To what do they attribute the change?
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
It is weakening the bloodline. Something needs to be done to get the murder rate back up, pronto.
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
The trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
Crime doesn't pay. :(
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
It may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 12:35:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
It may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 12:51:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 12:35:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
It may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.
The Germans have the US beat by most murders per century by a longshot.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 28, 2012, 12:21:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
The trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
The population is aging. Crime rates are dropping everywhere this is occuring.
Clearly, it is because garbon is not pulling his weight, as either perp or victim. :contract:
Quote from: Malthus on November 28, 2012, 01:37:00 PM
Clearly, it is because garbon is not pulling his weight, as either perp or victim. :contract:
His generation is weak.
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
http://languish.org/forums/index.php/topic,8549.msg486070.html#msg486070
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
:huh:
You mean a marvel for the US?
The province of Quebec and NYC both hover around 8 million people. We had 84 homicides last year.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 28, 2012, 03:15:34 PM
:huh:
You mean a marvel for the US?
No a marvel for NYC.
Quote from: Zoupa on November 28, 2012, 03:15:34 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
:huh:
You mean a marvel for the US?
The province of Quebec and NYC both hover around 8 million people. We had 84 homicides last year.
Again, population density applies. Quebec's pop. density is only 15.3/sqm compared to NYC's 27,000. :contract:
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 03:25:39 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on November 28, 2012, 03:15:34 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
:huh:
You mean a marvel for the US?
The province of Quebec and NYC both hover around 8 million people. We had 84 homicides last year.
Again, population density applies. Quebec's pop. density is only 15.3/sqm compared to NYC's 27,000. :contract:
:yes:
When you have everyone on top of one another - tempers flare.
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 12:51:07 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 12:35:53 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
It may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.
I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 03:41:49 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 12:51:07 PM
That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.
I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.
And if you can provide something that says that, I'll believe you. :)
By the way, Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Germany_with_more_than_100,000_inhabitants) says that there isn't a single German city with a higher population density of more than 5k/sq km. Nowhere near the same as NYC.
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 03:54:08 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 03:41:49 PM
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 12:51:07 PM
That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.
I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.
And if you can provide something that says that, I'll believe you. :)
By the way, Wiki (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cities_in_Germany_with_more_than_100,000_inhabitants) says that there isn't a single German city with a higher population density of more than 5k/sq km. Nowhere near the same as NYC.
OK lets compare, what you'd regard as like with like, Hong Kong has a population of about 7million and is suitably densely populated. There current murder rate appears to be about 2.2 homicides per month. :hmm:
Why the fixation with population density anyway? It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.
Guliani/Kerik 2016!!!!!11111oneoneoneone
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 04:27:47 PM
Why the fixation with population density anyway? It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.
Because people on top of people makes for more opportunity to commit - and to get away with - a crime. Having a population of 2 million people spread out so thin that there's only 3.5 people per sq mile doesn't provide the same opportunity as having 27,000 people per sq mile.
When murder is outlawed, only outlaws will be murderers. :cry:
And let's head it off at the pass: "This is Giuliani Time!" :yeah:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.huffingtonpost.com%2F2009-05-30-7louima.jpg&hash=7f272037f88d5b5c8c451219256f3b0ceb8e7432) (https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.anusha.com%2Fdiallo.jpg&hash=f40a4d4dc62bda5b18d00c6c17de6d75bcdcd657)
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 04:34:38 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 04:27:47 PM
Why the fixation with population density anyway? It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.
Because people on top of people makes for more opportunity to commit - and to get away with - a crime. Having a population of 2 million people spread out so thin that there's only 3.5 people per sq mile doesn't provide the same opportunity as having 27,000 people per sq mile.
Sounds like an unwarranted assumption. Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern. The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.
Quote from: Capetan Mihali on November 28, 2012, 04:38:47 PM
When murder is outlawed, only outlaws will be murderers. :cry:
And let's head it off at the pass: "This is Giuliani Time!" :yeah:
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimages.huffingtonpost.com%2F2009-05-30-7louima.jpg&hash=7f272037f88d5b5c8c451219256f3b0ceb8e7432) (https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.anusha.com%2Fdiallo.jpg&hash=f40a4d4dc62bda5b18d00c6c17de6d75bcdcd657)
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2Fjw6LhKCYUCQ%2F0.jpg&hash=806a0014724d4416a07467228bf1391c2835535b)
I'm saying that when the Cops do it, it's *not* illegal!
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 04:43:09 PM
Sounds like an unwarranted assumption. Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern. The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.
It's a very long, very old argument among sociologists. A bunch believe that density is a factor. Others believe that it's not. I think the majority of studies show that it has a lot more to do with unemployment/poverty than density, but that in densely populated cities you're more likely to have higher unemployment/poverty.
To my mind, that seems like six of one, half a dozen of another.
Quote from: merithyn on November 28, 2012, 05:28:48 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 04:43:09 PM
Sounds like an unwarranted assumption. Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern. The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.
It's a very long, very old argument among sociologists. A bunch believe that density is a factor. Others believe that it's not. I think the majority of studies show that it has a lot more to do with unemployment/poverty than density, but that in densely populated cities you're more likely to have higher unemployment/poverty.
To my mind, that seems like six of one, half a dozen of another.
To my mind, that's definitely not. Assuming that what you said is true, population density is acting as a proxy for the real causative factors. Proxy variables are never as good as the real thing, and they add noise. And on a more general note, these sociologists most likely compared murder rates within US, which would most likely not touch upon the reasons for the order of magnitude difference in the murder rates between US and many countries in Europe.
It's pretty clear that within the US, more densely populated areas tend to have more crime. Whether or not the density itself is among the reasons for that isn't clear.
Regardless of that, the point is that NYC murder rate is impressive for a US city. Compared to Western European countries, even many economic basket cases, it's still atrocious.
That is what makes NYC exciting. In Berlin, they nanny everybody. In NYC, an impromptu live version of the Warriors might break out.
USA wins.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 28, 2012, 12:21:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
The trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
Well now, our Western societies are just failing at even getting crime done right! ;)
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 28, 2012, 12:21:48 PMThe trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
I wonder how much of it's to do with ageing?
QuoteIt may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
Indeed. Boris always likes that line when plugging London (recently in India) over New York as a city to do business in - we've more bookshops and less murder :lol:
I think it looks like we're doing ok....
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/homicide-rates
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.economist.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Foriginal-size%2F20111008_WOM936_0.gif&hash=a781e0f86cf959d80cc27322bd014b188b0c92b9)
Thank God we don't have Europe's pickpocket problem though.
Anyone got any comparative stats on muggings?
Don't know if this is accurate or would cover pickpocketing (which has never happened, ever, to anyone I know), or whether it's just muggings:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rob_vic-crime-robbery-victims
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 28, 2012, 10:04:02 PM
Don't know if this is accurate or would cover pickpocketing (which has never happened, ever, to anyone I know), or whether it's just muggings:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/cri_rob_vic-crime-robbery-victims
No real gypsies in England. :contract:
We can travel :P
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 07:36:30 PM
Regardless of that, the point is that NYC murder rate is impressive for a US city. Compared to Western European countries, even many economic basket cases, it's still atrocious.
Why the fuck do we care about Europe? :huh:
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 28, 2012, 09:52:08 PM
I think it looks like we're doing ok....
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/homicide-rates
(https://languish.org/forums/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fmedia.economist.com%2Fsites%2Fdefault%2Ffiles%2Fimagecache%2Foriginal-size%2F20111008_WOM936_0.gif&hash=a781e0f86cf959d80cc27322bd014b188b0c92b9)
This is masking the relative safety of Europe. There is an infinite difference expressed as a ratio between a rate of 0 and 3.
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:29:37 PM
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 07:36:30 PM
Regardless of that, the point is that NYC murder rate is impressive for a US city. Compared to Western European countries, even many economic basket cases, it's still atrocious.
Why the fuck do we care about Europe? :huh:
As a point of comparison? We should probably measure ourselves against Europe rather than Venezuela.
But no one was making comparisons till you came in blathering about Europe. Like it so much, go back! :angry:
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:40:17 PM
But no one was making comparisons till you came in blathering about Europe. Like it so much, go back! :angry:
Pardon me for targeting what is known to be humanly possible, and not just against own past experience.
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:40:17 PM
But no one was making comparisons till you came in blathering about Europe. Like it so much, go back! :angry:
Actually Ukraine's as dangerous as the US. DG's safe nowhere! :(
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:29:37 PM
Why the fuck do we care about Europe? :huh:
It's a place with rich history and culture, which we are deeply intertwined with by virtue of robust economic, diplomatic, military, and ancestral ties. Many of their women are very attractive, some of them frighteningly so. They possess a great deal of high quality art, and some of their cities are aesthetic marvels. Some of their cuisine ranks among the best in the world, if not the absolute best.
Quote from: DGuller on November 28, 2012, 10:43:23 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:40:17 PM
But no one was making comparisons till you came in blathering about Europe. Like it so much, go back! :angry:
Pardon me for targeting what is known to be humanly possible, and not just against own past experience.
Well we have to start somewhere. REducing NYC murder rate to historic lows is a good start.
Quote from: Tonitrus on November 28, 2012, 09:52:08 PM
I think it looks like we're doing ok....
http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2011/10/homicide-rates
When was Afghanistan's last recored year, 1978?
Quote from: Admiral Yi on November 28, 2012, 10:44:48 PM
Quote from: garbon on November 28, 2012, 10:29:37 PM
Why the fuck do we care about Europe? :huh:
It's a place with rich history and culture, which we are deeply intertwined with by virtue of robust economic, diplomatic, military, and ancestral ties. Many of their women are very attractive, some of them frighteningly so. They possess a great deal of high quality art, and some of their cities are aesthetic marvels. Some of their cuisine ranks among the best in the world, if not the absolute best.
Sorry but that answer has nothing to do with the spirit of my question.
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 28, 2012, 12:21:48 PM
Quote from: Valmy on November 28, 2012, 11:35:12 AM
The New York crime rate is really a marvel. If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days. When you compare the populations that is astounding. Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.
The trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
TAccording to Freakonomics we can thank the legalisation of abortion.
Quote from: Sheilbh on November 28, 2012, 09:37:53 PM
Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on November 28, 2012, 12:21:48 PMThe trouble is that we don't know why the crime rates are falling. In the UK homicides peaked 10 years ago and then started falling, there were only 550 last year.......in a population of 63m. Most of the other crimes are falling too, even though we are also in the 4th year of economic gloom and despondency, most of the "experts" predicted it would go up with economic hard times :hmm:
I wonder how much of it's to do with ageing?
QuoteIt may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards. Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.
Indeed. Boris always likes that line when plugging London (recently in India) over New York as a city to do business in - we've more bookshops and less murder :lol:
Ageing is almost certainly a favourable factor, but the UK population has been ageing ever since the baby boom (largest cohort in the UK was 1963 IIRC, they were 18 in 1981). If ageing was the dominant factor we would have expected a reduction in crime in the 1990s, instead it greatly increased.