No Person Got Shot, Stabbed, Slashed, or Murdered in NYC Monday

[merithyn]

The New York crime rate is really a marvel.  If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days.  When you compare the populations that is astounding.  Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.

You mean a marvel for the US?

The province of Quebec and NYC both hover around 8 million people. We had 84 homicides last year.

Again, population density applies. Quebec's pop. density is only 15.3/sqm compared to NYC's 27,000.

[garbon]

The New York crime rate is really a marvel.  If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days.  When you compare the populations that is astounding.  Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.

You mean a marvel for the US?

The province of Quebec and NYC both hover around 8 million people. We had 84 homicides last year.

Again, population density applies. Quebec's pop. density is only 15.3/sqm compared to NYC's 27,000.

When you have everyone on top of one another - tempers flare.

[DGuller]

The New York crime rate is really a marvel.  If it really ends up around 400 it will be lowest number of annual murders in NYC since pre-prohibition days.  When you compare the populations that is astounding.  Whatever they are doing I hope every city can.

It may be astounding for a US city, but it's still way, way too high by European standards.  Germany, all of it, has about 200 murders per year.

That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.

I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.

[merithyn]

That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.

I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.

And if you can provide something that says that, I'll believe you.

By the way, Wiki says that there isn't a single German city with a higher population density of more than 5k/sq km. Nowhere near the same as NYC.

[mongers]

That's hardly a fair comparison. NYC has a population density of 27,000+ per square mile, while Germany has a population density of 230 per square km.

I'm sure at least 10,000,000 million of the Germans live in high density cities, and unless the murder rate is negative in the countryside, their cities still have less murders.

And if you can provide something that says that, I'll believe you.

By the way, Wiki says that there isn't a single German city with a higher population density of more than 5k/sq km. Nowhere near the same as NYC.

OK lets compare, what you'd regard as like with like, Hong Kong has a population of about 7million and is suitably densely populated. There current murder rate appears to be about 2.2 homicides per month.   

[DGuller]

Why the fixation with population density anyway?  It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.

[Viking]

Guliani/Kerik 2016!!!!!11111oneoneoneone

[merithyn]

Why the fixation with population density anyway?  It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.

Because people on top of people makes for more opportunity to commit - and to get away with - a crime. Having a population of 2 million people spread out so thin that there's only 3.5 people per sq mile doesn't provide the same opportunity as having 27,000 people per sq mile.

[Capetan Mihali]

When murder is outlawed, only outlaws will be murderers.   

And let's head it off at the pass: "This is Giuliani Time!"   

[DGuller]

Why the fixation with population density anyway?  It's not like Manhattan is driving the murder statistics.

Because people on top of people makes for more opportunity to commit - and to get away with - a crime. Having a population of 2 million people spread out so thin that there's only 3.5 people per sq mile doesn't provide the same opportunity as having 27,000 people per sq mile.

Sounds like an unwarranted assumption.  Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern.  The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.

[Viking]

When murder is outlawed, only outlaws will be murderers.   

And let's head it off at the pass: "This is Giuliani Time!"   

I'm saying that when the Cops do it, it's *not* illegal!

[merithyn]

Sounds like an unwarranted assumption.  Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern.  The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.

It's a very long, very old argument among sociologists. A bunch believe that density is a factor. Others believe that it's not. I think the majority of studies show that it has a lot more to do with unemployment/poverty than density, but that in densely populated cities you're more likely to have higher unemployment/poverty.

To my mind, that seems like six of one, half a dozen of another.

[DGuller]

Sounds like an unwarranted assumption.  Again, NYC itself is a data point that doesn't follow this pattern.  The most dangerous boroughs are Brooklyn and Bronx, which are half as dense as Manhattan.

It's a very long, very old argument among sociologists. A bunch believe that density is a factor. Others believe that it's not. I think the majority of studies show that it has a lot more to do with unemployment/poverty than density, but that in densely populated cities you're more likely to have higher unemployment/poverty.

To my mind, that seems like six of one, half a dozen of another.

To my mind, that's definitely not.  Assuming that what you said is true, population density is acting as a proxy for the real causative factors.  Proxy variables are never as good as the real thing, and they add noise.  And on a more general note, these sociologists most likely compared murder rates within US, which would most likely not touch upon the reasons for the order of magnitude difference in the murder rates between US and many countries in Europe.

[dps]

It's pretty clear that within the US, more densely populated areas tend to have more crime.  Whether or not the density itself is among the reasons for that isn't clear.

[DGuller]

Regardless of that, the point is that NYC murder rate is impressive for a US city.  Compared to Western European countries, even many economic basket cases, it's still atrocious.