Languish.org

So which one do you think is the most likely scenario?

My guess is that some combination of all options will be how things turn out.

Fiscal union, no one leaves the eurozone.

Should the world ending next year fall under option 2 or option 6?

I doubt it can survive intact barring a major cultural shift in the PIIGS nations. We'll have to see what the political situation is like in the south in the medium term to know for sure. Voted for collapse because I don't think it can happen fast enough without excessive popular anger.

I think it'll blow up.  Big time.

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

There is no problem with East European debt, unless you mean Greece.

Quote from: Martinus on September 23, 2011, 04:18:33 PM

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

There is no problem with East European debt, unless you mean Greece.

There is problem with Polish debt even if it's hidden under cover at the moment

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

None of those can leave the Eurozone without defaulting immediately after. And if Italy or Spain default, shit is going to hit the fan.

Greece and Portugal will default and leave the euro.  Ireland will default and maybe stay.

Greece will default.  No one leaves the Euro.  Eurobonds and moves to closer fiscal union.

Greece and Ireland will default. Greece might leave the Euro, Ireland won't leave. Portugal is solvent, so they will be bailed out until their liquidity crisis is over. Same for Spain or Italy.
They talk about leveraging the EFSF, which would mean that the ECB prints money in whatever quantity is needed to finance governments. There will be lots of grumbling about this in Germany and some other countries, but they are a minority in the ECB. So Germany will demand austerity and transfer of sovereignity in exchange.
Not sure if there will be a real fiscal union in the end. Maybe it's what Germany will demand for it to underwrite anything. But that will be a fiscal union where the strong dictate the terms to the weak. So it will sour relations for decades to come.

Quote from: Zanza on September 24, 2011, 03:32:44 AM
Greece and Ireland will default. Greece might leave the Euro, Ireland won't leave. Portugal is solvent, so they will be bailed out until their liquidity crisis is over. Same for Spain or Italy.
They talk about leveraging the EFSF, which would mean that the ECB prints money in whatever quantity is needed to finance governments. There will be lots of grumbling about this in Germany and some other countries, but they are a minority in the ECB. So Germany will demand austerity and transfer of sovereignity in exchange.
Not sure if there will be a real fiscal union in the end. Maybe it's what Germany will demand for it to underwrite anything. But that will be a fiscal union where the strong dictate the terms to the weak. So it will sour relations for decades to come.

:hmm:  Sounds like the boy knows what he's talking about.

I'd be interested in hearing the case for Portugal's solvency.

On a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke

Yeah, I can't think of a way in which a fiscal union would come about that would be politically acceptable.  The Germans would be annoyed at having to pay for the profligacy of the crap parts of Europe, and there's no way that would put the EU apparatus in a position where the 80 million Germans dictated to 200 million assorted wastrels.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 03:41:51 AM:hmm:  Sounds like the boy knows what he's talking about.

Not really, I change my guesses in this crisis frequently.

QuoteI'd be interested in hearing the case for Portugal's solvency.

Admittedly they may barely be solvent, but as a few more spending cuts will mean they get rid of their manageable primary budget deficit, they'll then just need favorable terms to refinance themselves (via the EFSF) and can then start lowering their debt to more manageable levels.

QuoteOn a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).

It's mentioned a lot. As well as other parts of Germany's more distant history. Germany basically defaulted on its war debts after both wars and while it paid some reparations, those were probably lower than the damages it caused.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 03:41:51 AMOn a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).

I think Germany's behaviour's done the impossible and made the Greeks sympathetic.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 24, 2011, 06:57:33 PM
I think Germany's behaviour's done the impossible and made the Greeks sympathetic.

You were already sympathetic to the Greeks.  Who else?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 07:15:22 PMYou were already sympathetic to the Greeks.  Who else?

Greece is (like Switzerland) the subject of a bias of mine, I can't stand bloody Greece.  I'd far rather the Turks in the EU and NATO alone and all the rest than the Greeks.  I acknowledge Mousaka as an Armenian dish and the kebab as a Middle Eastern invention stolen by the Greeks.  Give me the Hebrew parts of the Bible rather than the Alexandrian, philosophical nonsense.

The best thing the Greeks have given the world is sodomy.  Aside from that I'm not at all Hellenic :P

Sympathetic to the retard protesters, not the country per se.

Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 24, 2011, 05:31:31 AM

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke

We're not really interested in your petty ethnic squabbles. I would have thought that was clear by now. :(

Quote from: Razgovory on September 24, 2011, 09:00:59 PM

Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.

It stimulates the economy.

Voted for #4, "Some of the PIIGS will go bankrupt and leave the eurozone. Eurozone will move towards a fiscal union."

I'm not an expert though, so what do I know?

Quote from: Razgovory on September 24, 2011, 09:00:59 PM

Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.

Insurance scam.

Quote from: DGuller on September 25, 2011, 12:09:44 AM

It stimulates the economy.

Broken window fallacy.

Quote from: garbon on September 24, 2011, 09:52:44 PM

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 24, 2011, 05:31:31 AM

Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke

We're not really interested in your petty ethnic squabbles. I would have thought that was clear by now. :(

you will be when the economy blows up. Not that your opinion was asked for.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 01:49:42 AM

Quote from: DGuller on September 25, 2011, 12:09:44 AM

It stimulates the economy.

Broken window fallacy.

Incorrect.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 07:59:29 PM
Sympathetic to the retard protesters, not the country per se.

I'm sympathetic to all protesters including the Tea Party.  I support protests in general, it doesn't mean I agree with them in the (very rare) occassions when a protest can be said to have a coherent agenda.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 08:59:10 AM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 07:59:29 PM
Sympathetic to the retard protesters, not the country per se.

I'm sympathetic to all protesters including the Tea Party.  I support protests in general, it doesn't mean I agree with them in the (very rare) occassions when a protest can be said to have a coherent agenda.

This seems weird to me.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 08:59:10 AM
I'm sympathetic to all protesters including the Tea Party.  I support protests in general, it doesn't mean I agree with them in the (very rare) occassions when a protest can be said to have a coherent agenda.

Well, I'm curious where you got the notion that Germany's actions have rendered Greece sympathetic.  Sympathetic to whom?

When it comes down to it Greece is just a tiny percentage of the EU economy.
If Spain gets worse and Italy starts going down...then we could be pretty fucked. But with Just Greece (whats up with Ireland? Have they sorted their debt?) its not a long term danger.

I don't get why Spain is getting beat up along with the others.  Debt is 78% of GDP, lower I think than Germany.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 25, 2011, 09:44:14 AMWell, I'm curious where you got the notion that Germany's actions have rendered Greece sympathetic.  Sympathetic to whom?

I think the German government's tended to choose the worst action at every given moment.  When decisiveness was needed there was dithering, when a decision had been reached it was ineffective and often edged with contradictions from senior figures in the German government.  I know there were real constitutional problems for Germany but I don't think the government's handled it well and that they've, if anything exacerbated the situation.

By contrst the Greeks have gone through hell.  They've passed truly painful austerity several times over the last 2 years, this government wasn't the one who fudged the figures and they've had to deal with massive uncertainty when despite all this because, due to often domestic political reasons, each tranche of funding is subject to new Euro infighting (normally, though not always, led by the German government).  I think it's dawning on Europe that Greece isn't a debt problem.  Greece is a far bigger problem involving the debt and a sclerotic economy.  All Europe's offering Greece is more cuts and tax rises with no plan or idea of how to help fix the Greek economy.  It's not enough simply to inflict pain if there's no idea of how to support growth.

Last tranche I remember hearing European leaders recognise this and talk about the need for a 'Marshall plan for Greece'.  This time we've only got more tax rises, more tax cuts and a Finnish tantrum.  The Greeks meanwhile are passing shock therapy reforms.  It's hard not to feel sympathy for Greece now.

 :lol:  Answer: just me.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 25, 2011, 10:24:40 AM
:lol:  Answer: just me.

Not really.  As I say the Eurozone itself has gone from 'sell your islands!' to a 'Marshall plan for Greece'.  It would just be nice if they were able to flesh out those ideas a bit.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 10:27:37 AM
Not really.  As I say the Eurozone itself has gone from 'sell your islands!' to a 'Marshall plan for Greece'.  It would just be nice if they were able to flesh out those ideas a bit.

Eh, when you say "the Eurozone itself has gone from sell your islands to a Marshall plan for Greece,"  do you mean the EU bureacracy, the heads of states of the Eurozone countries and their legislatures, all have come to a concensus on a Marhall plan, and they're presumably just working out the details, or do you mean one person wrote an op-ed you agreed with?

I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 25, 2011, 10:30:27 AMEh, when you say "the Eurozone itself has gone from sell your islands to a Marshall plan for Greece,"  do you mean the EU bureacracy, the heads of states of the Eurozone countries and their legislatures, all have come to a concensus on a Marhall plan, and they're presumably just working out the details, or do you mean one person wrote an op-ed you agreed with?

The Eurozone leaders - they're mostly Parliamentary systems so the legislature goes with that.  The Commission and bureaucracy just deliver that policy.  The first draft said 'Marshall plan for Greece' the final draft didn't and I think the policy's still being worked out and probably won't be delivered for a few years. 

I think the plan is to keep cutting (unfortunately the Greek economy keeps shrinking more than was projected) and start shock therapy reforms to regulations and the labour market (this has already started) and then channel billions of infrastructure to help boost growth in a few years.  It all seems a bit long-winded to me and not necessarily going to help the Greeks.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

I understand you also support similar attitudes from the Tea Party congress members who refused to increase the US debt cap?

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

The Germans were breaking the rules for a long time too.

I'm not saying you can pass on the debt, there probably needs to be a restructuring of some sort.  The problem in Ireland is debt.  The problem in Spain, Italy and Portugal is growth with a bit of debt.  The problem with Greece is both on a massive scale.  Portraying this as some sort of morality play isn't helpful.

Quote from: Martinus on September 25, 2011, 10:41:13 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

I understand you also support similar attitudes from the Tea Party congress members who refused to increase the US debt cap?

Tea Party members tended to come from red states, the states that typically get more federal money then they take in.  Not to mention they identified with the party that created a vast debt over the last decade.  With out raising so much as a peep.  So it's more analogous to your cousin blowing all his money on a stereo system and they raising a stink when you pay the utility bills.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 10:44:13 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

The Germans were breaking the rules for a long time too.

I'm not saying you can pass on the debt, there probably needs to be a restructuring of some sort.  The problem in Ireland is debt.  The problem in Spain, Italy and Portugal is growth with a bit of debt.  The problem with Greece is both on a massive scale.  Portraying this as some sort of morality play isn't helpful.

What Rules did the Germans break?

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:56:22 AMWhat Rules did the Germans break?

Growth and stability pact on deficits.  The Germans, French and Italians broke it year in year out (the Irish and Spanish adhered) which rather removed any force it would have had when the big three just ignore it.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 11:00:48 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:56:22 AMWhat Rules did the Germans break?

Growth and stability pact on deficits.  The Germans, French and Italians broke it year in year out (the Irish and Spanish adhered) which rather removed any force it would have had when the big three just ignore it.

What are Growth and stability pacts on deficits?

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 10:44:13 AM
Portraying this as some sort of morality play isn't helpful.

It's very helpful in demonstrating that people suffer consequences from their own bad choices and that assistance is also a choice, not an obligation.

Quote from: Martinus on September 25, 2011, 10:41:13 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

I understand you also support similar attitudes from the Tea Party congress members who refused to increase the US debt cap?

Ignoring Raz's idiocy and attempts to score political points, the real problem with the Tea Party is their stupidity and their belief that if only they trust in Jesus and lower taxes, everything will work out.  The second problem flows from the first.

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 10:22:02 AMI think the German government's tended to choose the worst action at every given moment.  When decisiveness was needed there was dithering, when a decision had been reached it was ineffective and often edged with contradictions from senior figures in the German government.  I know there were real constitutional problems for Germany but I don't think the government's handled it well and that they've, if anything exacerbated the situation.

I've read that a lot in the English media. Can you give an example or two?

QuoteBy contrst the Greeks have gone through hell.  They've passed truly painful austerity several times over the last 2 years, this government wasn't the one who fudged the figures and they've had to deal with massive uncertainty when despite all this because, due to often domestic political reasons, each tranche of funding is subject to new Euro infighting (normally, though not always, led by the German government).  I think it's dawning on Europe that Greece isn't a debt problem.  Greece is a far bigger problem involving the debt and a sclerotic economy.  All Europe's offering Greece is more cuts and tax rises with no plan or idea of how to help fix the Greek economy.  It's not enough simply to inflict pain if there's no idea of how to support growth.

Greece hasn't privatized anything yet, Greece hasn't even been able to stop that unbelievably ridiculous lorry licensing scheme, the have no plan to really cut down their huge government workforce, rich Greeks still don't pay taxes as all the tax raises hit the employees etc.
If not for the bailouts, they would have crashed much, much harder.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 11:07:11 AMWhat are Growth and stability pacts on deficits?

The Eurozone countries were meant to have less than 60% of GDP in debt and less than 3% annual deficit. Germany never fulfilled the former and broke the latter for three or four years in the early 2000s. Without consequence as France had broken them too and they basically told the rest to ignore that or else.

Quote from: Zanza on September 25, 2011, 11:33:23 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 11:07:11 AMWhat are Growth and stability pacts on deficits?

The Eurozone countries were meant to have less than 60% of GDP in debt and less than 3% annual deficit. Germany never fulfilled the former and broke the latter for three or four years in the early 2000s. Without consequence as France had broken them too and they basically told the rest to ignore that or else.

So Germany violating this somehow hurts Greece?

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 11:42:09 AM
So Germany violating this somehow hurts Greece?

Germany violating it and getting away with it arguably hurt Greece.

Quote from: Zanza on September 25, 2011, 11:31:38 AMI've read that a lot in the English media. Can you give an example or two?

The one that sticks out in my mind was Merkel mentioning the need for private sector involvement and a bond haircut on one day and, after market panic, having to clarify that she meant after 2013 and the form would still have to be decided.  It seemed like the first comment was for domestic consumption without an awareness of how the market would respond to loose talk. 

QuoteGreece hasn't privatized anything yet, Greece hasn't even been able to stop that unbelievably ridiculous lorry licensing scheme, the have no plan to really cut down their huge government workforce, rich Greeks still don't pay taxes as all the tax raises hit the employees etc.
If not for the bailouts, they would have crashed much, much harder.

I support the bailouts and Greek austerity.  I think Britain should be contributing to them.  But there needs to be a plan beyond bailouts and austerity such as the promise of support devising labour market and bureaucratic reforms and later infrastructure subsidies.

I believe around 80 000 public sector workers are on compulsory unpaid leave and there are things like top-rate pensions have been cut by 20%.  You're right about the tax evasion as a problem.

As I say my problem is that I think the Irish economy will recover.  I think the Italians, Portuguese and Spanish have a relatively clear route to getting a sustainable and slightly more liberal economy.  With Greece the size of adjustment, both fiscal and in policy terms, is so large it's like looking at the equivalent of a former Eastern Bloc or Latin American state.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 11:42:09 AM
So Germany violating this somehow hurts Greece?

I think it hurt the credibility of fiscal discipline in the Eurozone that the three big members ignored the rules and weren't censured (and weren't able to censure smaller states breaking the rules).  But I didn't argue that, I just disagreed with your idea that Germany kept their house in order while the spendthrift Greeks were pissing it all away.  The Greeks were, but the Germans weren't saints.  That's a relatively recent development :P

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 25, 2011, 11:45:41 AMI support the bailouts and Greek austerity.  I think Britain should be contributing to them.  But there needs to be a plan beyond bailouts and austerity such as the promise of support devising labour market and bureaucratic reforms and later infrastructure subsidies.

There is exactly one group of people that can fix the Greek labor market. And that's the Greeks. The EU has no competences in that area and it shouldn't have either. And infrastructure subsidies? They got those for decades. And then they got cheap credit from the Euro. Did they use that for infrastructure? I guess you could say that if private swimming pools and big marinas full of shiny boats count as infrastructure.

QuoteI believe around 80 000 public sector workers are on compulsory unpaid leave and there are things like top-rate pensions have been cut by 20%. 

It depends on how you count it, but apparently their public sector and state owned enterprises are rather bloated from all the cronyism that has gone on for decades. 80,000 on unpaid leave is just the consequence. Without the bailouts it would probably be more as the state would just not have any money to pay their wages anymore.
And top-rate pensions being cut? Greeks apparently have a considerable part of their pension money invested in Greek government bonds. Let them default and see who pays. I'll give you a hint - it's not the vilified German and French banks. They will write down their assets a bit and might need a small recapitalization. The Greek pensioner however is in very deep shit then.

QuoteYou're right about the tax evasion as a problem.

That, corruption, cronyism, protectionism etc. all harm the Greek economy and those are all things that only the Greeks can fix.

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:55:36 AM

Quote from: Martinus on September 25, 2011, 10:41:13 AM

Quote from: Razgovory on September 25, 2011, 10:34:07 AM
I don't think you can get a pass on debt if you say it was the previous governments fault.  I feel more sorry for the a Germans, who kept their house in order and keep having to give handouts to their spendthrift Greek cousins.  The Germans are framed the bad guys because they give their cousins a budget, tell them to lay off the pot, and force them to get a job.

I understand you also support similar attitudes from the Tea Party congress members who refused to increase the US debt cap?

Tea Party members tended to come from red states, the states that typically get more federal money then they take in.  Not to mention they identified with the party that created a vast debt over the last decade.  With out raising so much as a peep.  So it's more analogous to your cousin blowing all his money on a stereo system and they raising a stink when you pay the utility bills.

Germany benefited hugely from having Greeks (and others) in the system (German economy is strong arguably because of having large export markets within the EU; I find it rather funny how everyone now praises Germans for being so good at fiscal matters, whereas about 5-10 years ago, the federal republic was widely derided as the "sick man of Europe"). And as others pointed out, they broke rules too.

I started a thread recently asking why the Tea Party got the bad rap over doing something comparable to what Germans are doing now - and people doubted this is the case. This thread proves I was right.

Quote from: Martinus on September 25, 2011, 12:53:49 PMI find it rather funny how everyone now praises Germans for being so good at fiscal matters, whereas about 5-10 years ago, the federal republic was widely derided as the "sick man of Europe").

Germany's fiscal policy was not the reason why it was called the sick man of Europe. :mellow:

QuoteI started a thread recently asking why the Tea Party got the bad rap over doing something comparable to what Germans are doing now - and people doubted this is the case. This thread proves I was right.

Only if one accepts your premise that what Germany and the Tea Party are doing is actually comparable.

Quote from: Martinus on September 25, 2011, 12:53:49 PM


Germany benefited hugely from having Greeks (and others) in the system (German economy is strong arguably because of having large export markets within the EU; I find it rather funny how everyone now praises Germans for being so good at fiscal matters, whereas about 5-10 years ago, the federal republic was widely derided as the "sick man of Europe"). And as others pointed out, they broke rules too.

I started a thread recently asking why the Tea Party got the bad rap over doing something comparable to what Germans are doing now - and people doubted this is the case. This thread proves I was right.

They don't appear to be doing something comparable.  The Tea Party didn't exist prior to the Obama administration, nor is it in a position to bail out anyone.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 25, 2011, 10:08:32 AM
I don't get why Spain is getting beat up along with the others.  Debt is 78% of GDP, lower I think than Germany.

1) As far as I understand our debt is often grouped with other Med bonds, which drags it down.
2) While government debt is low, private debt is quite high as a result of the bubble.
3) Extremely high unemployment.
4) Low growth prospects.
5) Lack of confidence in administrations.

It all sort of goes together: up until the sub-prime market blew up interest rates were lower than inflation. The government paid off some debt, which is why it is low, but businesses and families logically borrowed heavily and either invested or bought real state.
When it all came apart the entire construction sector (around 15% of the economy back then) was wiped out. Banks stopped lending, administrations froze payments and businesses started collapsing. By the time dust settled we had 20% unemployment and very high deficit. Furthermore, my entire generation has mortgaged their future (and often that of their parents as guarantors).
Add the austerity plans and you can see why internal consumption has plummeted.

The natural solution would be to export more. The problem is everyone else is in the same boat as we are, so growth prospects are not good.

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 25, 2011, 04:55:38 AM
you will be when the economy blows up. Not that your opinion was asked for.

Unlikely. If the economy was to go to total hell - I wouldn't even have the time to consider caring about Flems and Walloons.

We don't care that you don't care.

I don't care about anybody caring about anyone else, or not caring.

The Greeks should have listened to Groucho Marx.

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on September 26, 2011, 01:38:58 AM
The Greeks should have listened to Groucho Marx.

:D