What will become of the eurozone?

[Martinus]

So which one do you think is the most likely scenario?

[DGuller]

My guess is that some combination of all options will be how things turn out.

[Brezel]

Fiscal union, no one leaves the eurozone.

[Eddie Teach]

Should the world ending next year fall under option 2 or option 6?

[MadImmortalMan]

I doubt it can survive intact barring a major cultural shift in the PIIGS nations. We'll have to see what the political situation is like in the south in the medium term to know for sure. Voted for collapse because I don't think it can happen fast enough without excessive popular anger.

[Darth Wagtaros]

I think it'll blow up.  Big time.

[Habsburg]

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

[Martinus]

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

There is no problem with East European debt, unless you mean Greece.

[szmik]

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

There is no problem with East European debt, unless you mean Greece.

There is problem with Polish debt even if it's hidden under cover at the moment

[Iormlund]

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

None of those can leave the Eurozone without defaulting immediately after. And if Italy or Spain default, shit is going to hit the fan.

[Admiral Yi]

Greece and Portugal will default and leave the euro.  Ireland will default and maybe stay.

[Sheilbh]

Greece will default.  No one leaves the Euro.  Eurobonds and moves to closer fiscal union.

[Zanza]

Greece and Ireland will default. Greece might leave the Euro, Ireland won't leave. Portugal is solvent, so they will be bailed out until their liquidity crisis is over. Same for Spain or Italy.
They talk about leveraging the EFSF, which would mean that the ECB prints money in whatever quantity is needed to finance governments. There will be lots of grumbling about this in Germany and some other countries, but they are a minority in the ECB. So Germany will demand austerity and transfer of sovereignity in exchange.
Not sure if there will be a real fiscal union in the end. Maybe it's what Germany will demand for it to underwrite anything. But that will be a fiscal union where the strong dictate the terms to the weak. So it will sour relations for decades to come.

[Admiral Yi]

Greece and Ireland will default. Greece might leave the Euro, Ireland won't leave. Portugal is solvent, so they will be bailed out until their liquidity crisis is over. Same for Spain or Italy.
They talk about leveraging the EFSF, which would mean that the ECB prints money in whatever quantity is needed to finance governments. There will be lots of grumbling about this in Germany and some other countries, but they are a minority in the ECB. So Germany will demand austerity and transfer of sovereignity in exchange.
Not sure if there will be a real fiscal union in the end. Maybe it's what Germany will demand for it to underwrite anything. But that will be a fiscal union where the strong dictate the terms to the weak. So it will sour relations for decades to come.

  Sounds like the boy knows what he's talking about.

I'd be interested in hearing the case for Portugal's solvency.

On a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).

[Crazy_Ivan80]

Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke