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What will become of the eurozone?

Started by Martinus, September 23, 2011, 02:51:24 PM

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What will become of the eurozone within the next 5 years?

Not much will change. It will weather the storm.
9 (32.1%)
It will collapse entirely.
7 (25%)
Some of the PIIGS will go bankrupt and leave the eurozone. Nothing else will change.
3 (10.7%)
Some of the PIIGS will go bankrupt and leave the eurozone. Eurozone will move towards a fiscal union.
5 (17.9%)
None of the PIIGS will go bankrupt or leave the eurozone. Eurozone will move towards a fiscal union.
4 (14.3%)
Other
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 27

Neil

Yeah, I can't think of a way in which a fiscal union would come about that would be politically acceptable.  The Germans would be annoyed at having to pay for the profligacy of the crap parts of Europe, and there's no way that would put the EU apparatus in a position where the 80 million Germans dictated to 200 million assorted wastrels.
I do not hate you, nor do I love you, but you are made out of atoms which I can use for something else.

Zanza

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 03:41:51 AM:hmm:  Sounds like the boy knows what he's talking about.
Not really, I change my guesses in this crisis frequently.

QuoteI'd be interested in hearing the case for Portugal's solvency.
Admittedly they may barely be solvent, but as a few more spending cuts will mean they get rid of their manageable primary budget deficit, they'll then just need favorable terms to refinance themselves (via the EFSF) and can then start lowering their debt to more manageable levels.

QuoteOn a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).
It's mentioned a lot. As well as other parts of Germany's more distant history. Germany basically defaulted on its war debts after both wars and while it paid some reparations, those were probably lower than the damages it caused.

Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 03:41:51 AMOn a differnent note, I've already gone on record as saying I for the most part applaud Germany's handling of the situation so far, but IF I were feeling touchy about default and IF I were trying to pick a fight with a German I would mention Germany breaching the debt limits treaty (along with France).
I think Germany's behaviour's done the impossible and made the Greeks sympathetic.
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Quote from: Sheilbh on September 24, 2011, 06:57:33 PM
I think Germany's behaviour's done the impossible and made the Greeks sympathetic.

You were already sympathetic to the Greeks.  Who else?

Sheilbh

Quote from: Admiral Yi on September 24, 2011, 07:15:22 PMYou were already sympathetic to the Greeks.  Who else?
Greece is (like Switzerland) the subject of a bias of mine, I can't stand bloody Greece.  I'd far rather the Turks in the EU and NATO alone and all the rest than the Greeks.  I acknowledge Mousaka as an Armenian dish and the kebab as a Middle Eastern invention stolen by the Greeks.  Give me the Hebrew parts of the Bible rather than the Alexandrian, philosophical nonsense.

The best thing the Greeks have given the world is sodomy.  Aside from that I'm not at all Hellenic :P
Let's bomb Russia!

Admiral Yi

Sympathetic to the retard protesters, not the country per se.

Zoupa

Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.




Razgovory

Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

garbon

Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 24, 2011, 05:31:31 AM
Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke

We're not really interested in your petty ethnic squabbles. I would have thought that was clear by now. :(
"I've never been quite sure what the point of a eunuch is, if truth be told. It seems to me they're only men with the useful bits cut off."
I drank because I wanted to drown my sorrows, but now the damned things have learned to swim.

DGuller

Quote from: Razgovory on September 24, 2011, 09:00:59 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.
It stimulates the economy.

jimmy olsen

Voted for #4, "Some of the PIIGS will go bankrupt and leave the eurozone. Eurozone will move towards a fiscal union."

I'm not an expert though, so what do I know?
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

Martinus

Quote from: Razgovory on September 24, 2011, 09:00:59 PM
Quote from: Zoupa on September 24, 2011, 08:57:40 PM
Yeah. They're so retarded, those protesters.

I don't see how lighting cars on fire gets Greece out of debt any faster.

Insurance scam.

Razgovory

I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Crazy_Ivan80

#28
Quote from: garbon on September 24, 2011, 09:52:44 PM
Quote from: Crazy_Ivan80 on September 24, 2011, 05:31:31 AM
Quote from: Habsburg on September 23, 2011, 04:17:51 PM
Worst case Eurozone survives w/France-Benelux-Germany-Finland.  Doesn't Austria have a tonne of East European debt?

I would think Italy and Spain would  be wanted to stay if at all possible.

The question is how Spain and Italy perform through the contagion which will come to bear.

In your scenario Belgium cannot stay ni the euro. It's not possible. If you tear up Belgium though then flanders can easily stay in the euro, but Wallonia... that's Greece in the North. Just a bad, just as broke

We're not really interested in your petty ethnic squabbles. I would have thought that was clear by now. :(

you will be when the economy blows up. Not that your opinion was asked for.

Darth Wagtaros

PDH!