Languish.org

What do you think your society and economy will look like after the coronavirus crisis has ended?

What shape will the world economy be in and will humans behave differently?

My guess is it'll be very messy, putting aside the human suffering, countries will have their own virus crisis for very different durations.
So whilst some of the advanced and/or organised society will be trying to start up again,  there will be plenty of countries around the world that will act as virus hotspots that can't be visited or have people from them travelling to a virus free country.

I think the implicit bet contained within Western governments emergency economic measure, that the economy and society can bounce back to how things once were will prove to be wrong.

No doubt there will be a lot of pent up demand in Western countries, but will that be enough to bring things back to the way they were or will a new normal take hold?

You only have to drink for a poll, so no drink.

You're muddling two different concepts.  One is easing off the brake as new covid cases first diminish (ie inflection point) and then approach zero.  The other is LDCs going to hell while we're OK.  I.e. we're China and they're Italy.

I think we're going to see continued travel restrictions for a long time.

Also a third concept, which is after the crisis is over.

The last economic crisis was supposed to be a sign that the old way of things was broken and change was needed....
Instead we got a doubling down on the establishment bollocks.

The world recovered after the Spanish flu.  It will recover this time. 

I think I just saw a Triffid.

But seriously, I dont think it's going to be that John Wyndham. I think there will be quite a lot of effects, but they might not become clear for a few years. I have no idea what they will be, I dont think this will transform US Society into full dystopia, but it may strengthen plenty of unwelcome trends, similarly it wont magically tansform things for the better, but there may be a silver lining or two.

I'm watching to see how the US healthcare "system" responds to this, wether it will exacerbate the situation, or rise to the occasion. If things go badly will the general population blithely accept it or will the call for systemic change to healthcare grow louder? No clue. I suspect healthcare in the US will change at the state level not the federal level. Utter Cunts, sorry Health Insurers, too well represented in government. And not any time soon, even if things go ill.

Trump may be weakened or strengthened. Not sure. I do think, as a certainty that we will start to spend a lot more on epidemiological defense, all around the world. We must not be so woefully unprepared next time.

After all the dust has settled and all the bodies buried, I hope we triple down on the establishment bollocks.

The aftermath will suck.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETpqTeBUMAAAf5i?format=jpg&name=small)

;)

The capitalism beast will not be stop for long. The march towards heat death will take back it's course.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2020, 05:46:28 PM
After all the dust has settled and all the bodies buried, I hope we triple down on the establishment bollocks.

What establishment bollocks?

Quote from: Oexmelin on March 21, 2020, 06:01:42 PM
What establishment bollocks?

Whatever Squeeze is opposed to.

Quote from: mongers on March 21, 2020, 05:01:16 PM
What shape will the world economy be in and will humans behave differently?

Any world leader proposing to invade China and take their resources as payback will get huge popular support.

Quote from: viper37 on March 21, 2020, 06:08:57 PM

Quote from: mongers on March 21, 2020, 05:01:16 PM
What shape will the world economy be in and will humans behave differently?

Any world leader proposing to invade China and take their resources as payback will get huge popular support.

Canada to attack China?

Quote from: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 05:54:33 PM
The aftermath will suck.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETpqTeBUMAAAf5i?format=jpg&name=small)

;)

Need to save those coffee filters to retrofit as facemasks.  :ph34r:

Quote from: Fate on March 21, 2020, 06:24:41 PM

Quote from: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 05:54:33 PM
The aftermath will suck.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/ETpqTeBUMAAAf5i?format=jpg&name=small)

;)

Need to save those coffee filters to retrofit as facemasks.  :ph34r:

:x That's unsanitary.

Mr Coffee filters would work a lot better than Melitta.

What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world. 

Quote from: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 07:03:57 PM
What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world.

In what respect do you think Mono?

Quote from: fromtia on March 21, 2020, 07:10:03 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 21, 2020, 07:03:57 PM
What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world.

In what respect do you think Mono?

China will be seen as an enemy rather than a partner.  China's argument that other countries should not interfere in its internal affairs will be significantly weakened, because it is now shown that China's internal policies have devastating consequences for the world.  The rest of the world will present a united front to China.  Unless changes are made, no more trade and flow of people and capital.  The changes will range from the handling of wildlife, disease prevention, access by international bodies, to freedom of the press, and may even include demands for democracy. 

We kinda have to figure out a way to get people working again. And fairly soon. But there are no good solutions at this point. Regular well-run small businesses can handle a month with zero income, after that they start rapidly dying. Large corporations can get political bailouts, that's good maybe for 5-6 months or so. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have not locked down completely and they're managing their outbreaks. You can't really "pause" an economy for months and then just unpause it like it's a Netflix show.

Quote from: Legbiter on March 21, 2020, 08:11:18 PM
We kinda have to figure out a way to get people working again. And fairly soon. But there are no good solutions at this point. Regular well-run small businesses can handle a month with zero income, after that they start rapidly dying. Large corporations can get political bailouts, that's good maybe for 5-6 months or so. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have not locked down completely and they're managing their outbreaks. You can't really "pause" an economy for months and then just unpause it like it's a Netflix show.

Yes, Italy, Spain, France and to a lesser extent the UK have stopped their economies and as you say it's not like a digital steam to pause as you wish; better to think of industries as the limbs and organs of body politic, stop the blood supply for long and they'll begin to die.

Though some service industries are more like hair, really cut them back, but eventually those just come back to as it was, so after the virus we'll not be short of bar, venue, hair salon and nail-bar start ups.

Quote from: mongers on March 21, 2020, 08:22:17 PMYes, Italy, Spain, France and to a lesser extent the UK have stopped their economies and as you say it's not like a digital steam to pause as you wish; better to think of industries as the limbs and organs of body politic, stop the blood supply for long and they'll begin to die.

Yeah we're slamming into a wall at 250 mph. It doesn't just turn back on after a "pause". I'm thinking double digit unemployment figures and soup lines. A couple of months of total shutdown is a depression which will take years to recover from.

I think regular people will take one look at the end of April unemployment figures, glance at the half-empty fridge and opinion will turn on a dime. We'll wear homemade spacesuits in order to get back to work.

Quote from: mongers on March 21, 2020, 05:01:16 PM
What do you think your society and economy will look like after the coronavirus crisis has ended?

What shape will the world economy be in and will humans behave differently?

My guess is it'll be very messy, putting aside the human suffering, countries will have their own virus crisis for very different durations.
So whilst some of the advanced and/or organised society will be trying to start up again,  there will be plenty of countries around the world that will act as virus hotspots that can't be visited or have people from them travelling to a virus free country.

I think the implicit bet contained within Western governments emergency economic measure, that the economy and society can bounce back to how things once were will prove to be wrong.

No doubt there will be a lot of pent up demand in Western countries, but will that be enough to bring things back to the way they were or will a new normal take hold?

We will go back to being stupid and entitled.

@ Mongers, I am only about 300 pages into Picketty's book, and it is an interesting time to read it especially now that I have some time!

One of the points he makes in the early chapters is that the French Revolution did not do much to change property relationships or inequality (it did change the power of the state).  One of the reasons he identifies is that there was so little time to try out new forms of property ownership and there was a deep fear of changing too much from established ownership structures - turns out revolutionaries are conservative at heart.   :D

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 21, 2020, 08:59:43 PM
@ Mongers, I am only about 300 pages into Picketty's book, and it is an interesting time to read it especially now that I have some time!

One of the points he makes in the early chapters is that the French Revolution did not do much to change property relationships or inequality (it did change the power of the state).  One of the reasons he identifies is that there was so little time to try out new forms of property ownership and there was a deep fear of changing too much from established ownership structures - turns out revolutionaries are conservative at heart.   :D

Interesting I should give that book a go.

Also I'm now proposing a new informal dating system B.V. and A.V. 

At the very least I think The virus will supersede the WW2 as a frame of reference, the post-war world is over.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 21, 2020, 06:04:13 PM

Quote from: Oexmelin on March 21, 2020, 06:01:42 PM
What establishment bollocks?

Whatever Squeeze is opposed to.

So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2020, 01:53:42 AM
So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

I'm opposing for the sake of mocking usage of an empty and meaningless, but emotionally laden, expression.

I think he meant the bailouts?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 22, 2020, 02:00:27 AM

Quote from: Tyr on March 22, 2020, 01:53:42 AM
So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

I'm opposing for the sake of mocking usage of an empty and meaningless, but emotionally laden, expression.

Were you asleep during the last financial crisis?
You should be aware of what happened without someone needing to explain it when referencing it.

I think WFH will become far more widespread - a combination of bosses seeing that productivity stays roughly the same and the desire to cut fixed costs like rent. I think if people get ill they will WFH or take the time off instead of going in unless they literally can't (I'm very guilty of this).

I think we'll become more tactile at least in the short term. Bars and restaurants will be the one bit of the economy that, whatever else happens, rebounds in a a huge V shape.

I think there'll be a shift in view on the internet and I think people will realise that now it is an essential service.

I think we'll probably move away from just-in-time multi-national supply chains in some sectors to more stockpiling in warehouses. There's probably definitely a "China" risk that people haven't thought of before, like if a country needs to lockdown. Similarly I think there'll be almost nation security style focus on ensuring there is local capacity to manufacture certain health sector stuff - like PPE.

I think people will start wearing masks when they have a cold/feel ill as a matter of basic social courtesy and not doing it will be like gobbing in the street.

Quote from: 11B4V on March 21, 2020, 08:50:52 PM
We will go back to being stupid and entitled.

Pretty much. Many people won't even have to go back.

Quote from: Iormlund on March 22, 2020, 09:26:18 AM

Quote from: 11B4V on March 21, 2020, 08:50:52 PM
We will go back to being stupid and entitled.

Pretty much. Many people won't even have to go back.

Yes.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 22, 2020, 09:02:38 AM
I think WFH will become far more widespread - a combination of bosses seeing that productivity stays roughly the same and the desire to cut fixed costs like rent. I think if people get ill they will WFH or take the time off instead of going in unless they literally can't (I'm very guilty of this).

This is a curious one.
WFH was already growing quite rapidly. This however is its big test.
I fear some companies may take the drastically lowered productivity over this period as proof that WFH is a bad idea and push back its progress some years.

In a way its my dream. A remote job.
Except in my dream it was travelling the world whilst I worked rather than holed up in my flat.

Quote
I think people will start wearing masks when they have a cold/feel ill as a matter of basic social courtesy and not doing it will be like gobbing in the street.

I have observed a lot how we are in many ways following the same path of development as Japan only a few decades behind. I get your thinking here but from what I've seen in recent days I just don't have so much faith in British people to care for others. Covid will likely help this to become more normal and accepted but I don't think it'll reach the level of expected.

Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 22, 2020, 03:32:35 AM
I think he meant the bailouts?

He could mean salaries for teachers or Shovel Re-Dee(tm) infrastructure spending.

One thing that is noticeable in Europe is a trend towards authoritarianism from this crisis:

Orban was authoritarian before but now wants to outright rule by decree.

Germany proposes far reaching new powers for the federal government including a possibility to track everybody via their phones in order to identify contact persons of infected. This latter measure is done in East Asia and may have its merits even when considering how drastic it violates privacy rights. But pushing this through at a time of crisis without proper public debate is not a good idea.

Quote from: Zanza on March 23, 2020, 01:41:35 AM
Germany proposes far reaching new powers for the federal government including a possibility to track everybody via their phones in order to identify contact persons of infected. This latter measure is done in East Asia and may have its merits even when considering how drastic it violates privacy rights. But pushing this through at a time of crisis without proper public debate is not a good idea.

I'm in favor of doing this, but ONLY if it's clearly tied to a State of Emergency in place. I fear our politicians will quietly slip it through with no oversight.

I think by the end of it we will all be living a bit more closer to how China lives, although less drastically. On the other hand, this crisis can see the fall from grace of the raving bafoon as the ideal leadership candidate.

Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2020, 05:39:25 AM
I think by the end of it we will all be living a bit more closer to how China lives, although bit drastically. On the other hand, this crisis can see the fall from grace of the raving bafoon as the ideal leadership candidate.

You'd think. All being logical. Though I fear the worst. I fear their own failings may be shrugged off as corona.
In the UK in particular this should mask the already existing trend of economic unravelling.

Quote from: Tyr on March 23, 2020, 06:03:45 AM

Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2020, 05:39:25 AM
I think by the end of it we will all be living a bit more closer to how China lives, although bit drastically. On the other hand, this crisis can see the fall from grace of the raving bafoon as the ideal leadership candidate.

You'd think. All being logical. Though I fear the worst. I fear their own failings may be shrugged off as corona.
In the UK in particular this should mask the already existing trend of economic unravelling.

IDK. Communism in Eastern Europe collapsed because it failed to provide what the population perceived as adequate living standards.

One other thought - a lot of short-haul flights are not coming back. I think that whole generation Easyjet thing is gone.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2020, 09:43:49 AM
One other thought - a lot of short-haul flights are not coming back. I think that whole generation Easyjet thing is gone.

Why do you think? Air travel is still subsidized to a ludicrous degree, that's not going to change now.

Quote from: Maladict on March 23, 2020, 09:53:22 AM

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2020, 09:43:49 AM
One other thought - a lot of short-haul flights are not coming back. I think that whole generation Easyjet thing is gone.

Why do you think? Air travel is still subsidized to a ludicrous degree, that's not going to change now.

I think it'd be a very convenient time to ban, or regulate, or otherwise massively increase the price of it to better reflect environmental impact. It might survive as a very expensive business travel option, but I basically think the days of Londoners going for a weekend in Florence will probably end.

It's a business that is possibly unsustainable on the way it's been run (until we have electric planes) for the last 20 years and there are alternatives. But in normal times it would be very unpopular to make this shift - it's something we could do now. I think (and hope) the train network will develop alternatives.

Edit: And on theme I see that EasyJet is going ahead with the proposed £175 million dividend payment to shareholders which can only mean they've got loads of cash and don't need any state support at this time.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2020, 10:05:55 AM

Quote from: Maladict on March 23, 2020, 09:53:22 AM

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2020, 09:43:49 AM
One other thought - a lot of short-haul flights are not coming back. I think that whole generation Easyjet thing is gone.

Why do you think? Air travel is still subsidized to a ludicrous degree, that's not going to change now.

I think it'd be a very convenient time to ban, or regulate, or otherwise massively increase the price of it to better reflect environmental impact. It might survive as a very expensive business travel option, but I basically think the days of Londoners going for a weekend in Florence will probably end.

It's a business that is possibly unsustainable on the way it's been run (until we have electric planes) for the last 20 years and there are alternatives. But in normal times it would be very unpopular to make this shift - it's something we could do now. I think (and hope) the train network will develop alternatives.

I disagree. And I am irked by the middle class' environmental wunderwaffe of preventing poor people from flying. If we stopped planes altogether it would reduce emissions by around 4%, i.e. it would  not make any difference.

Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2020, 10:10:14 AM
I disagree. And I am irked by the middle class' environmental wunderwaffe of preventing poor people from flying. If we stopped planes altogether it would reduce emissions by around 4%, i.e. it would  not make any difference.

Yeah - I don't entirely disagree.

Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2020, 10:10:14 AM


I disagree. And I am irked by the middle class' environmental wunderwaffe of preventing poor people from flying. If we stopped planes altogether it would reduce emissions by around 4%, i.e. it would  not make any difference.

I share this irk. I suspect its rooted in British Middle Class loathing of their social inferiors. teh chavs are on the plane! It must be stopped!

Quote from: fromtia on March 23, 2020, 11:05:16 AM

Quote from: Tamas on March 23, 2020, 10:10:14 AM


I disagree. And I am irked by the middle class' environmental wunderwaffe of preventing poor people from flying. If we stopped planes altogether it would reduce emissions by around 4%, i.e. it would  not make any difference.

I share this irk. I suspect its rooted in British Middle Class loathing of their social inferiors. teh chavs are on the plane! It must be stopped!

I'm not so sure, plenty of well off people use budget airlines a lot.

IIRC something like 54% of Brits never fly, I'm willing to guess plenty of those are the poor, though as you say it could well be the travelling middle class no wishing to share their bargain trips with the masses.

Agreed. I really don't think there's much snobbiness about low cost airlines and poor people flying. Even quite decently well off people don't like spending money unecessarily. The old "I only fly BA" stereotype is a dying breed.
And lets face it. Charvas aren't going to be heading off to Florence for a cultural weekend. You get a very different crowd on a flight to Geneva vs. a flight to Malaga.

Also bears noting that flag carriers are often not that much more expensive than easyjet and ryanair. Sometimes cheaper even.



I could see ridiculously cheap flights like my £10 to Romania from a few years back vanishing, but low cost airlines in general are here to stay though how we may use them may change.  It is conceivable that weekend breaks could take a blow as flying becomes more of a fuss with extra health screenings et al, which could push up prices a little.

Would also be nice to see hub airports decline. Stop the talk of expanding Heathrow and expand Birmingham instead.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 23, 2020, 10:05:55 AM
I think it'd be a very convenient time to ban, or regulate, or otherwise massively increase the price of it to better reflect environmental impact. It might survive as a very expensive business travel option, but I basically think the days of Londoners going for a weekend in Florence will probably end.

It's a business that is possibly unsustainable on the way it's been run (until we have electric planes) for the last 20 years and there are alternatives. But in normal times it would be very unpopular to make this shift - it's something we could do now. I think (and hope) the train network will develop alternatives.

Edit: And on theme I see that EasyJet is going ahead with the proposed £175 million dividend payment to shareholders which can only mean they've got loads of cash and don't need any state support at this time.

You seem to be describing an example of "policy entrepreneurship," a concept I read about in undergrad.  People have these problems they'd like to address, along with preferred solutions, and they have to wait for the right time and place to sell them and get them adopted.  Right after crises is usually a good time, when everyone is clamoring for fixes.  You slip your problem and your solution into the mix, claiming a connection.  I can think of plenty of examples from the '08 crisis that fit this description, like everything Warren did.  One phrase that stuck with me from the reading is "every crisis is an opportunity."

All that being said, I don't really see how banning cheapo flights fits with preventing or mitigating pandemics.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 23, 2020, 01:46:26 PM
You seem to be describing an example of "policy entrepreneurship," a concept I read about in undergrad.  People have these problems they'd like to address, along with preferred solutions, and they have to wait for the right time and place to sell them and get them adopted.  Right after crises is usually a good time, when everyone is clamoring for fixes.  You slip your problem and your solution into the mix, claiming a connection.  I can think of plenty of examples from the '08 crisis that fit this description, like everything Warren did.  One phrase that stuck with me from the reading is "every crisis is an opportunity."

All that being said, I don't really see how banning cheapo flights fits with preventing or mitigating pandemics.

Yeah. Just old-fashioned opportunism - more important than that is I think in this sort of crisis and the aftermath, everything will be in flux.

There's no economics textbook in the world that deals with how do you stop your economy - no-one has tried this and this sort of "reset" moment will present an opportunity for all sorts of entrepreneurs.

In terms of this I can see three basic constituencies for wanting to make short-haul flights more difficult/expensive - or just plain banning them.

I think there will be a populist/nationalist right pushback - see Trump's tweet today "THIS IS WHY WE NEED BORDERS!" and the response of various European states, especially those with populist leanings of immediately shutting down their borders - similarly I think the Chinese focus now will be on saying they've dealt with it and new cases are because of foreigners. I think this will create a bit of a pull against foreigners and globalisation - with its easier travel and relatively open borders.

There's also probably a sort of bien pensant middle class element - which has two parts I think. One is the environmental "flight-shaming" people who will possibly see a world without short-haul flights and with lower carbon emissions during this crisis and resist a return to the status quo. The other side of that, in Europe, is that there are significant areas with real anti-tourist movements because there is a sense that certain areas/cities/regions are being overwhlemed and the previous levels of tourism were unsustainable. Again I think they'll resist a return to the status quo. Both of those channels are really reflecting by surging green parties - but are also a part of most social democratic parties' coalitions.

The other group in Europe is, I think, the policy elites possibly at European level who really do want to act on climate and again may see an opportunity. Because they're not having to radically change people's lives by massively curtailing these flights - rather it's just a case of not returning to the status quo. These are folks in plenty of parties - centre left, centre right, liberal.

So on a European level I suppose it's some sort of ungodly Orban-Macron-Podemos-Greens coalition. As I say it's not directly related to the pandemic - but I think in the context of an economic reset policy entrepreneurship won't be limited to pandemic related issues, it'll be closer to post-War politics in Europe and Japan.

OK, get all that.  But presumably you need to pitch to the public that "we are preparing for future outbreaks by banning EasyJet." 

How do you make that spiel?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 23, 2020, 03:05:19 PM
OK, get all that.  But presumably you need to pitch to the public that "we are preparing for future outbreaks by banning EasyJet." 

How do you make that spiel?

There are more ways to encourage a change in consumer behaviours and business practices than just banning things.

Quote from: Tyr on March 23, 2020, 03:07:43 PM
There are more ways to encourage a change in consumer behaviours and business practices than just banning things.

I don't understand why you are directing this to me.  It's Shelf's idea.

Easy Jet aside, I agree with what Sheilbh is saying, I anticipate on the other side of the present crisis there will be quite a lot of legislative oppurtunism, it's just far to early to tell which way its going to go and whats going to be on the agenda. Neo liberal thumb screws get tightened? Permanent Oligarchy entrenched in the US? Bold attempt to address climate ?less/More Economic Inequality? Ban Bat/Pangolin relations? Who knows.

The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 23, 2020, 05:07:44 PM
The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

Yeah, by Horny McBatface, the famous horny bat. Shortly before he was made into a sandwich.

Quote from: fromtia on March 23, 2020, 07:42:26 PM

Quote from: Eddie Teach on March 23, 2020, 05:07:44 PM
The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

Yeah, by Horny McBatface, the famous horny bat. Shortly before he was made into a sandwich.

I wonder if the guy who ate that ever died or if he's sitting at home going.."duuude I caused the end of the world. "

One other thought on change is I think it'll change the way day-to-day representative democracy works. Select Committees are already changing the way they work to introduce remote, video-conferenced hearings.

There's a lot of irritation that Parliament stays open (though only MPs who are on the order paper are attending the House of Commons), which puts MPs, Lords and workers at risk, especially for non-coronavirus work. I expect Parliament will shut down but I also wonder if they will try to work out some sort of way that, for example, Ministers can make statements or MPs can ask questions in a remote virtual way.

I wonder if at the end of this a lot of MPs will wonder if actually they all need to be in Westminster in a room with 500 other MPs and if that's the best way for a democracy to work these days, especially given the feeling of distance between the governors and the governed.

I hope we get changes like more widespread use of distance medical consultation, AI, online shopping, robotics, etc. 

I will also be very happy if we reverse the trend of packing an impossible number of tables in restaurants.  Sometimes I literally have trouble reaching my table because all the corridors are blocked by other tables, or there is only 2cm between my table and the next  :mad:

I think we're definitely going to see a lot more e-filing and remote appearances in the courts.

The common belief is that it takes 21 days to change a habit. We'll all be on lockdown for a lot longer than that. What changes will that bring about in your life, do you think?

I, for one, anticipate eating out far less than I had been. I'm getting into a rhythm with cooking again, and preparing meals ahead of time. There's comfort in it, and I can see carrying that forward post-quarantine.

I think part of the hoarding habit will be carried forward.  Keeping a year's supply of all kinds of medication, having more than 100 rolls of toilet paper, for example.

Cooking will be difficult because there is no time.   

A concern I have is what it means for the high street.
It has already been struggling, shops going under quicker than things can adjust.
Now though we have all non essential brick and mortar shops closed whilst people are locked up at home.... Perfect situation for Internet shopping.

Yeah apparently Amazon is hiring massive numbers of workers.

Quote from: Monoriu on March 24, 2020, 04:52:52 PM
I think part of the hoarding habit will be carried forward.  Keeping a year's supply of all kinds of medication, having more than 100 rolls of toilet paper, for example.

Cooking will be difficult because there is no time.

I will have 4 cans of store brand chopped pressed pork shoulder in my cupboard until the day I die.

mono, how many sheets do you use to wipe your ass after a dump?

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 24, 2020, 05:02:38 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 24, 2020, 04:52:52 PM
I think part of the hoarding habit will be carried forward.  Keeping a year's supply of all kinds of medication, having more than 100 rolls of toilet paper, for example.

Cooking will be difficult because there is no time.

I will have 4 cans of store brand chopped pressed pork shoulder in my cupboard until the day I die.

mono, how many sheets do you use to wipe your ass after a dump?

About 16.  I have a bad digestive system.  Been that way since I was a kid.  So I typically take 2-3 dumps per day. 

Quote from: merithyn on March 24, 2020, 04:45:48 PM
The common belief is that it takes 21 days to change a habit. We'll all be on lockdown for a lot longer than that. What changes will that bring about in your life, do you think?

I, for one, anticipate eating out far less than I had been. I'm getting into a rhythm with cooking again, and preparing meals ahead of time. There's comfort in it, and I can see carrying that forward post-quarantine.

Oh Meri that's a good question.


Though personally not too many, as I feel some of you are now moving in my direction.  :P

After this is all over, I am going keep at least a thousand face masks at home for next time.  I am so glad that I kept 50 or so at home after SARS in 2003.  There will be a next time, I am sure. 

Why not 2000? 10 000? A million?

There will be more sex.

Quote from: Zoupa on March 24, 2020, 11:08:18 PM
Why not 2000? 10 000? A million?

Obviously storage space is limited.  Facemasks aren't huge but they do take up space.  And they cost money.  1,000 for two people is enough for around 500 days.  A bit over a year.  I think that is reasonable. 

Quote from: Tyr on March 24, 2020, 04:56:10 PM
A concern I have is what it means for the high street.
It has already been struggling, shops going under quicker than things can adjust.
Now though we have all non essential brick and mortar shops closed whilst people are locked up at home.... Perfect situation for Internet shopping.

Good riddance if there ever was one. The "high street" is an expensive middleman, profiting from the barriers in front of a simple citizen obtaining goods more directly from the manufacturer. Technology has removed most of those barriers.

Quote from: Tamas on March 25, 2020, 04:10:51 AM

Quote from: Tyr on March 24, 2020, 04:56:10 PM
A concern I have is what it means for the high street.
It has already been struggling, shops going under quicker than things can adjust.
Now though we have all non essential brick and mortar shops closed whilst people are locked up at home.... Perfect situation for Internet shopping.

Good riddance if there ever was one. The "high street" is an expensive middleman, profiting from the barriers in front of a simple citizen obtaining goods more directly from the manufacturer. Technology has removed most of those barriers.

Don't you have grandparents?
How will they manage if all shopping goes online only?

I've lived in a country where the  death of the high street is a lot further developed. Its not a pretty sight at all. It really is downfall of society territory.
The high street is declining, this is known. However we need to ensure that this decline is a gradual one that causes the least damage possible,lets the older generation to continue to live their lives, and allows for transition to a new model that leaves our towns intact.

Also the high street is an important place from the perspective of identity and community. People see it as a sort of barometer for the health of their community - and they're right. Especially now it's not necessary you can normally tell how well a town/village is doing based on the high street because the shops and cafes etc are purely luxury.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a link between closed shops on the high street and votes for, say, UKIP or the Brexit Party. I think there was something similar in France that found a link between villages that had/didn't have a shop and support for the FN.

If the claim is that high streets are important to maintain, what's the solution? Why would anyone want to pay a premium on goods if they don't have to (assuming their isn't a commensurate increase in quality from the high street good)?

Quote from: garbon on March 25, 2020, 04:42:49 AM
If the claim is that high streets are important to maintain, what's the solution? Why would anyone want to pay a premium on goods if they don't have to (assuming their isn't a commensurate increase in quality from the high street good)?

Yeah I don't know. Business rates are the thing every small business owner I know complains about, so I'd look at that. Also possibly that community interest protection in terms of planning applications to stop redevelopment. But you're right.

The other side is I actually think the high street is showing their importance right now, I know several people who live in the country who say their local shops are starting to do deliveries (mainly focused on the vulnerable) and given the issues people are having with the big supermarket delivery services at the minute, this might lead people to going more local.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 25, 2020, 04:35:05 AM
Also the high street is an important place from the perspective of identity and community. People see it as a sort of barometer for the health of their community - and they're right. Especially now it's not necessary you can normally tell how well a town/village is doing based on the high street because the shops and cafes etc are purely luxury.

I wouldn't be surprised if there's a link between closed shops on the high street and votes for, say, UKIP or the Brexit Party. I think there was something similar in France that found a link between villages that had/didn't have a shop and support for the FN.

:yes:
Thats what I was referring to with what I saw in Japan.
Towns just aren't towns anymore. They're nothing but vast stretches of housing. If they didn't have such a well developed railway system to point out the town centre as a significant place you wouldn't notice it in most.
I really think this is linked to all aspects of things being messed up there right down to their birth rate issues.

So one interesting observation - you couldn't get a one bed flat in zones 1-3 in London for under £1-1,200. I'm now seeing flats for rent at about £8-900.

I wonder if this is the impact of the thousands of AirBnBs suddenly coming onto the market. If that's so we either need to police current regulations or make them stricter.

Outlawing AirBnB, actually all those gig economy apps, is the way to go. Especially if you are not American. Let's stop giving rich conservative american venture capitalist sway over our nations.

Jesus Christ, people.


FIrst of all the death of high street doesn't mean you can only shop online, alright.

And guess what, in the small town where my parents live, small grocery stores, a butcher's etc. are perfectly fine because THEY STILL MAKE SENSE. The distance from supermarkets is big enough that people are putting up with their premiums for daily shopping.

There's correlation between the death of stores and the rise of retards because if a village/town goes to the shitters then people who can earn money leave and the shops thus reduce in numbers, and all you have left are the elderly,  and the useless 'tards.

The notion that you need to have shops on the high street to socialise is, I am sorry, laughable. If people want to go there and socialise they don't HAVE to shop. If they don't want to socialise then having to attend expensive shops with a range of selection miniscule compared to supermarkets let alone the Internet will not change that.

The only bigger marketing BS than this high street QQ is the one justifying the taxi driver guilds as customer protection.

Quote from: Grey Fox on March 25, 2020, 08:37:17 AM
Outlawing AirBnB, actually all those gig economy apps, is the way to go. Especially if you are not American. Let's stop giving rich conservative american venture capitalist sway over our nations.

Are your suggesting vulture capitalism is a virus and we need a vaccine?

The corner shops in my neighbourhood were at their lowest ebb about 10 years ago; since then they have expanded. As for the high street, many shops have closed but have been replaced to a certain extent by cafes, small supermarkets, alehouses and restaurants............for me these developments are an improvement  :cool:

It depends on where you look. In my current upper middle class neighborhood shops get replaced by trendy shops - the food du jour places, artison muffin shops, that kind of thing. At the same time, in the 6 years I've lived in this area some shops have been empty for the entire time, likely because of the rents required to pay.

Compare with my previous haunts, working class/immigrant area. An old shop would close and a cell phone or kebab shop would spring up. On Quellenstraße, between Favoritenstraße and Laxenburger Straße (about 700 meters, maybe), there were probably 6 or 7 kebab places. :lol: Fortunately, the amount of sports betting places has gone down a bit in recent years.

Quote from: Richard Hakluyt on March 25, 2020, 09:00:10 AM
The corner shops in my neighbourhood were at their lowest ebb about 10 years ago; since then they have expanded. As for the high street, many shops have closed but have been replaced to a certain extent by cafes, small supermarkets, alehouses and restaurants............for me these developments are an improvement  :cool:

Yeah I think this happens, it's why I think people aren't wrong to associate the wider economic health of their community with the high street.

I think it does give a sense of identity and community to an area and a sort-of sense of wellbeing. I think business rates are a huge issue which I'd get rid of - and also I'd pedestrianise more, it's something businesses always hate the idea of but every time it's done it increases trade (not least because practically the way you shop on a high street is park somewhere and walk up and down, not park at each shop).

But I wouldn't even oppose something like potemkin high streets.

Quote from: mongers on March 25, 2020, 08:45:21 AM

Quote from: Grey Fox on March 25, 2020, 08:37:17 AM
Outlawing AirBnB, actually all those gig economy apps, is the way to go. Especially if you are not American. Let's stop giving rich conservative american venture capitalist sway over our nations.

Are your suggesting vulture capitalism is a virus and we need a vaccine?

In case of the hotel industry, there's already a vaccine and it is called AirBnB.

I'm curious if this will have any impact on the healthcare debate in the US. I think there may be an increase in support for government healthcare here, but I don't think we will see any actual implementation, so we will just end up with a lot of dead and a lot of angry people.

Quote from: HisMajestyBOB on March 25, 2020, 09:44:33 AM
I'm curious if this will have any impact on the healthcare debate in the US. I think there may be an increase in support for government healthcare here, but I don't think we will see any actual implementation, so we will just end up with a lot of dead and a lot of angry people.

I am thinking, they way its going to go is first the big cities will be hit which are not very pro-Trump in general. So the GOP crowd won't care. But then of course their less populate areas will also be heavily hit, and because of the sequence of event they will be blaming the liberals for not controlling it in the cities.

I am hoping  it will make them turn toward a civilised healthcare system, but I am not expecting it.

Quote from: Tamas on March 25, 2020, 08:44:41 AM
Jesus Christ, people.


FIrst of all the death of high street doesn't mean you can only shop online, alright.

And guess what, in the small town where my parents live, small grocery stores, a butcher's etc. are perfectly fine because THEY STILL MAKE SENSE. The distance from supermarkets is big enough that people are putting up with their premiums for daily shopping.

There's correlation between the death of stores and the rise of retards because if a village/town goes to the shitters then people who can earn money leave and the shops thus reduce in numbers, and all you have left are the elderly,  and the useless 'tards.

The notion that you need to have shops on the high street to socialise is, I am sorry, laughable. If people want to go there and socialise they don't HAVE to shop. If they don't want to socialise then having to attend expensive shops with a range of selection miniscule compared to supermarkets let alone the Internet will not change that.

The only bigger marketing BS than this high street QQ is the one justifying the taxi driver guilds as customer protection.

You're being too black and white on this.
Nobody is saying we have to subsidise all the shops and keep them open forever. We all recognise they're a dying breed as times are changing.
However, the transformation of the high streets from predominantly shopping areas towards being predominantly leisure areas is a slow and gradual one, it is happening, slowly slowly, but this transition heavily relies on the old slowly winding down as the new builds up. History has shown time and again that sudden change can have a major negative effect.
The high street is the core of the town because thats where the shops are. Remove the shops and you remove the footfall so cafes and leisure places suffer too. The theories behind anchor stores et al still hold. Slowly replace the old style shops with new facilities piece by piece however and you can maintain the town's health even as it transforms.

As the population becomes more and more digital high street shopping will continue to decline, this is inevitable, but we should make efforts to ensure this is as slow as possible so the idea of a town centre doesn't die along with it and the elderly and poor aren't left behind as society changes.

I'm wondering if I'm going to move to always having groceries delivered after I see the time and energy saved.

I don't think I'd ever been excited about groceries as I was at midnight last night snagging a delivery window on Amazon Fresh with most of the groceries supplied by Morrisons. :blush:

Quote from: Tyr on March 25, 2020, 10:03:23 AM
As the population becomes more and more digital high street shopping will continue to decline, this is inevitable, but we should make efforts to ensure this is as slow as possible so the idea of a town centre doesn't die along with it and the elderly and poor aren't left behind as society changes.

Unless the elderly and poor are assisted in affording/using the new technologies (in this instance online shopping), it seems like they'll still end up losing albeit drip by drop.

I am one of those weirdos who actually enjoys going to grocery stores.

The future of delivery-only grocery distribution warehouses scares me.  :(

I like grocery shopping.  Good people watching.

Every red blooded American male thinks about pulling the Dean's wife in the produce section.

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 05:37:27 AM
I am one of those weirdos who actually enjoys going to grocery stores.

The future of delivery-only grocery distribution warehouses scares me.  :(

I do too.  Ms. CC can't understand it but I like to see what there is on offer.  Kind of like how I would much prefer going to a good book store (if there was still one here).

I have no strong feelings one way or the other.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 05:43:40 AM
I like grocery shopping.  Good people watching.

Every red blooded American male thinks about pulling the Dean's wife in the produce section.

"Mine's bigger than that."

Anyone else getting a bit parsimonious with some foods?

I'm rationing my favourite tea blends and coffee, because those appear in short supply.
And it's less risk than going to the shops two or three times a week just to see if they're in stock.

Yeah. The Peckham fruit tea shortage continues :(

I have a coffee subscription service so I'm okay on that.

Though I've found local deliveries for fruit and veg, toiletry essentials and essentials like bread, milk and butter and eggs. So I'm mainly okay avoiding the shops now.

Yeah I've a local service now for fruit, vegetables, eggs, milk and bread. Haven't found anything reasonable for meat so now on amazon fresh.

I've always enjoyed the grocery store, or the vegetable market when I lived in the UK. I think I'll probably not adopt online ordering for groceries.

I've also been cooking every day, super cheap, peasant cooking usually throw something together to last the household the rest of the day. Then I go and drink tea and watch the bluejays and the cardinals in the backyard.

For months I'd been toying with the idea of cutting my hair at home to save money.

Since the barbershops are all closed now until God knows when, it's given me the excuse to take the plunge and order an electric trimmer.

As an added plus the first few cuts will probably be seen by very few people.  :P

Quote from: Camerus on March 29, 2020, 01:07:09 PM
For months I'd been toying with the idea of cutting my hair at home to save money.

Since the barbershops are all closed now until God knows when, it's given me the excuse to take the plunge and order an electric trimmer.

As an added plus the first few cuts will probably be seen by very few people.  :P

I've been doing it that for a few years now, saves me about $15 a time and I don't risk a stilted conversation with the barber.

I'm seriously considering shaving my head.  Now is the best time to try it and get used to it.  Is there anything to it other than running through your head with the clipper, and then shaving?  I can see it being a little unwieldy to do it yourself.

I just run the machine over the head and skip the shaving. Fast and simple.

Quote from: DGuller on March 29, 2020, 04:04:23 PM
I'm seriously considering shaving my head.  Now is the best time to try it and get used to it.  Is there anything to it other than running through your head with the clipper, and then shaving?  I can see it being a little unwieldy to do it yourself.

Just follow that scene in 'full metal jacket'

I've long followed a policy of going to a pro once every year or two to get my hair evened out and put into some sembelance of style.
The months after are oddly when I look my worst.
But it's necessary to bring order to my more standard home hair cuts which vary from getting my mam to do it to drunkenly slicing off a few strands.

I was going to shave it, but decided to try trimming the hair first, to see how much of a mess I would do of it. It ended up working fairly nicely.

:ph34r:

I go to a Turkish barber every six weeks. As I last got my hair done before holiday it's been over two months now and I have had to do a home hair cut this weekend :ph34r:

I don't hate it.

After working from home for a week and a half, I've decided to try growing out my beard. This will last until my wife gets sick of it.

I am going full hippy-if this lasts that long.

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 29, 2020, 05:54:54 PM
I am going full hippy-if this lasts that long.

dreadlocks?

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 29, 2020, 05:54:54 PM
I am going full hippy-if this lasts that long.

I'm going to go the opposite - try to get my hands on electric trimmers and go full-on buzz cut.

I had gotten a set of cordless (highly recommend that), rechargeable clippers and have been cutting my own hair for about two years now. 

I don't do a full on, military buzz cut, but my short enough to be pretty simple (Meri could say if it looked like ass or not).

Youtube videos help for that initial confidence you need to take the initial plunge (plus the willingness to cut it all off and start over if you mess up). 

Quote from: Barrister on March 29, 2020, 06:11:51 PM

Quote from: crazy canuck on March 29, 2020, 05:54:54 PM
I am going full hippy-if this lasts that long.

I'm going to go the opposite - try to get my hands on electric trimmers and go full-on buzz cut.

I picked up a nice Wahl  a few years back, genuine good bit of American kit.  :)

Some budding entrepreneur should resurrect the Flowbee.  :P

Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

Seems like I wasn't the first one who had this thought.  My local target has been all out of good Wahl clippers.  It's probably easier to find toilet paper.

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:22:08 PM
Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

I don't think I have ever bought yeast, or suffered to have any in my home.

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:26:24 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:22:08 PM
Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

I don't think I have ever bought yeast, or suffered to have any in my home.

Between you toes or elsewhere on another family member?

Quote from: mongers on March 29, 2020, 06:35:29 PM

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:26:24 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:22:08 PM
Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

I don't think I have ever bought yeast, or suffered to have any in my home.

Between you toes or elsewhere on another family member?

I practice good foot hygiene and am single.  :sleep:

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:56:38 PM

Quote from: mongers on March 29, 2020, 06:35:29 PM

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:26:24 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:22:08 PM
Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

I don't think I have ever bought yeast, or suffered to have any in my home.

Between you toes or elsewhere on another family member?

I practice good foot hygiene and am single.  :sleep:

Anyway getting back on topic, what are people currently choosing to bury in your coffee tins?

I am really surprised that people bake their own bread at home.  Never thought that is possible until now.  You guys must have big ovens or something. 

Now that I think about it, bags of flour is not a bad way to store food. 

I'm growing a beard.

Wait, is this the yeast thread, or the beard thread?

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:17:38 PM
I don't do a full on, military buzz cut, but my short enough to be pretty simple (Meri could say if it looked like ass or not).

You looked adorable. ^_^

Quote from: Tonitrus on March 29, 2020, 06:26:24 PM

Quote from: Admiral Yi on March 29, 2020, 06:22:08 PM
Can you idiots stop babbling about your hair for just one second?  This is a deadly serious situation, and we need to focus on what's important, like yeast.

I don't think I have ever bought yeast, or suffered to have any in my home.

I wasn't there long enough. :P

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 07:48:37 PM
I am really surprised that people bake their own bread at home.  Never thought that is possible until now.  You guys must have big ovens or something. 

I can bake up to four loaves of bread in my regular oven. How big of loaves do you think we're making? :unsure:

I don't have an oven at all  :lol:

Doesn't surprise me. I don't think I've ever had Asian food that required baking.

Are there any?

Quote from: merithyn on March 29, 2020, 08:22:14 PM
Doesn't surprise me. I don't think I've ever had Asian food that required baking.

Are there any?

Not the traditional dishes.  But baked rice and baked pasta are local favourites and are commonly found.  Most HK flats are far too small to have ovens which are non-essential.  Especially because many many people don't cook at home at all.  They eat out 100%.  One of the first things many people do when they buy their flats is to demolish their kitchens to allow more space for beds. 

Basked pork chop rice is arguably a fusion east meets west thing and is really great if done right. 

So how is that working with the lockdown? All take-home meals?

Quote from: merithyn on March 29, 2020, 08:27:47 PM
So how is that working with the lockdown? All take-home meals?

I am still eating out once a day.  Mostly lunch.  Restaurants in HK are still mostly open, albeit with restrictions.  They may only serve half their permissible number of guests, and each table must be at least 1.5m apart.

Most days I try to have a big lunch, and then just some fruit or leftovers from lunch for dinner. 

Given that I was a little drunk this evening, I decided to go ahead with my plan to simplify my hair care.  That was quite a pain in the ass to make sure I didn't miss any spots, I hope it gets easier with practice.

Quote from: DGuller on March 29, 2020, 09:26:44 PM
Given that I was a little drunk this evening, I decided to go ahead with my plan to simplify my hair care.  That was quite a pain in the ass to make sure I didn't miss any spots, I hope it gets easier with practice.

Pics or it didn't happen.

Also would we be best advised to also be slightly drunk to appreciate your handicraft?  :P

I can almost never eat out anymore :( I miss not having to cook.

And it is sadly not related to the current Pandemic.

Quote from: Grey Fox on March 30, 2020, 08:18:49 AM
I can almost never eat out anymore :( I miss not having to cook.

And it is sadly not related to the current Pandemic.

We should sort of 'swap', as I hate eating out at all and love making my own meals.

Quote from: mongers on March 30, 2020, 08:25:13 AM

Quote from: Grey Fox on March 30, 2020, 08:18:49 AM
I can almost never eat out anymore :( I miss not having to cook.

And it is sadly not related to the current Pandemic.

We should sort of 'swap', as I hate eating out at all and love making my own meals.

It's not delivery. It's DiGiorno.

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
They eat out 100%.

Everybody in Hong Kong must be incredibly wealthy.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:00:01 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
They eat out 100%.

Everybody in Hong Kong must be incredibly wealthy.

I've limited experience but know someone who lived in South-East Asia for a while and it's more that eating out is cheap. The kitchen is the least important room in your flat. People do home-cook but there's always restaurants or street food stalls as a very affordable option.

Edit: I believe it's similar in other bits of East Asia but I don't know - it sounds dreamy.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2020, 01:01:52 PM

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:00:01 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
They eat out 100%.

Everybody in Hong Kong must be incredibly wealthy.

I've limited experience but know someone who lived in South-East Asia for a while and it's more that eating out is cheap. The kitchen is the least important room in your flat. People do home-cook but there's always restaurants or street food stalls as a very affordable option.

Edit: I believe it's similar in other bits of East Asia but I don't know - it sounds dreamy.

I mean that might be true in small town Thailand but we are talking about one of the most expensive cities in the world :lol:

Besides even if I did nothing but eat super cheap fast food, besides inching myself closer to death, it would still add thousands of dollars a month to my budget to do it every day for all meals.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:00:01 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
They eat out 100%.

Everybody in Hong Kong must be incredibly wealthy.

Food is incredibly cheap.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:04:08 PM

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2020, 01:01:52 PM

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:00:01 PM

Quote from: Monoriu on March 29, 2020, 08:29:49 PM
They eat out 100%.

Everybody in Hong Kong must be incredibly wealthy.

I've limited experience but know someone who lived in South-East Asia for a while and it's more that eating out is cheap. The kitchen is the least important room in your flat. People do home-cook but there's always restaurants or street food stalls as a very affordable option.

Edit: I believe it's similar in other bits of East Asia but I don't know - it sounds dreamy.

I mean that might be true in small town Thailand but we are talking about one of the most expensive cities in the world :lol:

Besides even if I did nothing but eat super cheap fast food, besides inching myself closer to death, it would still add thousands of dollars a month to my budget to do it every day for all meals.

"Super cheap fast food" in China, at least, is nothing like what you're thinking here in the states. Jeremy and I ate on roughly $15 a day for the two of us while we were in Beijing and Shanghai. It was less in Wulingyuan. And it was healthy food with fresh vegetables, etc.

Hey those hamburgers have tomatos and lettuce :P

I just thought Hong Kong was this big international city like New York or Tokyo and thus had prices that were comparable to those cities.

I am sure food was cheaper in Champaign as well but that doesn't mean it is super cheap to eat out in Chicago...every day for every meal.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
Hey those hamburgers have tomatos and lettuce :P

I just thought Hong Kong was this big international city like New York or Tokyo and thus had prices that were comparable to those cities.

I am sure food was cheaper in Champaign as well but that doesn't mean it is super cheap to eat out in Chicago...every day for every meal.

Of course there are really expensive restaurants in Hong Kong. And Beijing and Shanghai. But the average restaurant is crazy cheap. Jeremy and I were getting six rolls for breakfast for roughly $2. It's not like in the US.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:04:08 PM
I mean that might be true in small town Thailand but we are talking about one of the most expensive cities in the world :lol:

He was in Bangkok (which is cheap) and Singapore (which ain't). I don't see why Hong Kong would be wildly different than Singapore.

QuoteBesides even if I did nothing but eat super cheap fast food, besides inching myself closer to death, it would still add thousands of dollars a month to my budget to do it every day for all meals.

Sure but in our culture eating out and even fast food or take away are treats, not a daily thing so pricing reflects that. If your culture emphasises street food and eating out as almost a daily necessity, something you will do several times a week then the pricing will reflect that. I mean Singapore famously has the world's cheapest Michelin star restaurant where you can get the chicken and rice signature dish for $3.

It doesn't stop there being very expensive high end restaurants, which Mono loves, but there's range that I've not seen anywhere in the West (possible exception: Mexico - theory, street food is key).

Definitely it's a great thing I found in Japan that in any decent sized city you can find a range of food for all price ranges.

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2020, 01:32:14 PM
Sure but in our culture eating out and even fast food or take away are treats, not a daily thing so pricing reflects that.

Well that is just not true. Tons of people would LOVE to eat out or take out for every meal. But generally, in our culture, that is a great way to go broke. In fact the main way people change their lifestyle to get out of debt is just to stop eating out.

It is kind of sad to know that all that is completely unnecessary and we are all just being overcharged like suckers.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:44:06 PM

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2020, 01:32:14 PM
Sure but in our culture eating out and even fast food or take away are treats, not a daily thing so pricing reflects that.

Well that is just not true. Tons of people would LOVE to eat out or take out for every meal. But generally, in our culture, that is a great way to go broke. In fact the main way people change their lifestyle to get out of debt is just to stop eating out.

It is kind of sad to know that all that is completely unnecessary and we are all just being overcharged like suckers.

Um, how long have you lived in the US? I mean, this is pretty much true of most things here.

Traveling for a month in Europe cost me less the first two weeks (Spain and Italy) than it did for a month of groceries in the US. I mean, I got breakfast daily of a croissant and coffee for just under $3. Lunch would run me around $5. Dinner was a splurge of around $7 or $8 most nights, which included a glass of wine. (Most expensive night was when cel and I went out for my birthday and there was much wine. :D )

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
Hey those hamburgers have tomatos and lettuce :P

I just thought Hong Kong was this big international city like New York or Tokyo and thus had prices that were comparable to those cities.

I am sure food was cheaper in Champaign as well but that doesn't mean it is super cheap to eat out in Chicago...every day for every meal.

I only have experience from Macau and Vietnam, but the big cities basically have two types of restaurants. Expensive ones like the west for tourists who don't know better and locals who want to show off, and then cheap ones with the exact same food for locals and tourists who know better. 

Quote from: merithyn on March 30, 2020, 01:52:34 PM

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:44:06 PM

Quote from: Sheilbh on March 30, 2020, 01:32:14 PM
Sure but in our culture eating out and even fast food or take away are treats, not a daily thing so pricing reflects that.

Well that is just not true. Tons of people would LOVE to eat out or take out for every meal. But generally, in our culture, that is a great way to go broke. In fact the main way people change their lifestyle to get out of debt is just to stop eating out.

It is kind of sad to know that all that is completely unnecessary and we are all just being overcharged like suckers.

Um, how long have you lived in the US? I mean, this is pretty much true of most things here.

Traveling for a month in Europe cost me less the first two weeks (Spain and Italy) than it did for a month of groceries in the US. I mean, I got breakfast daily of a croissant and coffee for just under $3. Lunch would run me around $5. Dinner was a splurge of around $7 or $8 most nights, which included a glass of wine. (Most expensive night was when cel and I went out for my birthday and there was much wine. :D )

Okay but that's not generally true of large European cities.

Quote from: HVC on March 30, 2020, 01:52:41 PM

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 01:11:59 PM
Hey those hamburgers have tomatos and lettuce :P

I just thought Hong Kong was this big international city like New York or Tokyo and thus had prices that were comparable to those cities.

I am sure food was cheaper in Champaign as well but that doesn't mean it is super cheap to eat out in Chicago...every day for every meal.

I only have experience from Macau and Vietnam, but the big cities basically have two types of restaurants. Expensive ones like the west for tourists who don't know better and locals who want to show off, and then cheap ones with the exact same food for locals and tourists who know better. 

I mean "like the west", most Americans are not going out to expensive restaurants :lol:

But just feeding your family at McDonalds every day can get pretty expensive.

yeah I wonder how much of our fast food culture (and pricing) is based on the fact that franchises way outnumber our mom and pop places. I don't see restaurants in like Asia (or Europe) taking home the same cash as a McDonalds franchisee

*edit* hmm, I guess maybe not outnumber? market share would maybe be a better guage

Quote from: garbon on March 30, 2020, 02:10:06 PM

Okay but that's not generally true of large European cities.

I was in Barcelona, Naples, and Rome. :mellow:

Quote from: merithyn on March 30, 2020, 02:49:52 PM

Quote from: garbon on March 30, 2020, 02:10:06 PM

Okay but that's not generally true of large European cities.

I was in Barcelona, Naples, and Rome. :mellow:

Okay? It doesn't mean that you aren't still wrong about those facts. :mellow:

Quote from: garbon on March 30, 2020, 02:54:13 PM

Quote from: merithyn on March 30, 2020, 02:49:52 PM

Quote from: garbon on March 30, 2020, 02:10:06 PM

Okay but that's not generally true of large European cities.

I was in Barcelona, Naples, and Rome. :mellow:

Okay? It doesn't mean that you aren't still wrong about those facts. :mellow:

:hmm:

I shared what my experiences were in those large European cities. What "facts" am I wrong about?

Well you made it pretty clear my experience is wrong so why not yours? :lol: Just kidding.

Seriously though, I guess I just found it odd given the horrible and dehumanizing living conditions that Mono claims most of Hong Kong residents endure because of the extreme cost of living there that they could afford to eat out all the time. I mean I can't and I have great living conditions.

Quote from: Valmy on March 30, 2020, 03:02:45 PM
Well you made it pretty clear my experience is wrong so why not yours? :lol: Just kidding.

Seriously though, I guess I just found it odd given the horrible and dehumanizing living conditions that Mono claims most of Hong Kong residents endure because of the extreme cost of living there that they could afford to eat out all the time. I mean I can't and I have great living conditions.

I don't know if the cost of living is necessarily that extreme in HK.  You've seen the apartments they live in - calling them shoeboxes would be an insult to shoeboxes.

As such restaurants can get away with paying lower wages (plus with lots of mainlanders willing to come and work for those low wages), and with wages being the #1 cost of a restaurant, they can then charge lower prices.

Or so goes my theory.

Quite a nice time lapse video of a Saturday night drive through central London out to the suburbs, regent street to the hamersmith flyover (a drive/journey I've done many times):

https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52084872/timelapse-the-streets-of-london-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-52084872/timelapse-the-streets-of-london-during-the-coronavirus-pandemic)

I ate out a lot in Shanghai. My wife still cooked a lot because she enjoys cooking. Eating out was cheap but cooking was even cheaper, especially if you bought from the corner vegetable market instead of the supermarket.

Of course you will find cheap food when there's next to no sanitation requirements, duh.

I was a bit confused, but now I got it straight in my mind, this is the haircuts and yeast thread? 

With travel being disrupted probably for many months to come, Austria will be quite hard hit. 1 in 14 jobs in Austria is in tourism. Vienna alone had 7.5 million tourist visitors in 2018, with each spending 2-3 nights on average. 73% of tourists come from abroad. Big chain hotels and restaurants will likely be fine, but a lot of small hotels and gastronomy business, esp. in the countryside, have very limited financial reserves to make it through a dry spell.

Tourism, travel, and leisure make up for 15% of the Austrian economy, with only Greece and Portugal a higher percentage.

Quote from: Syt on April 05, 2020, 04:02:43 AM
With travel being disrupted probably for many months to come, Austria will be quite hard hit. 1 in 14 jobs in Austria is in tourism. Vienna alone had 7.5 million tourist visitors in 2018, with each spending 2-3 nights on average. 73% of tourists come from abroad. Big chain hotels and restaurants will likely be fine, but a lot of small hotels and gastronomy business, esp. in the countryside, have very limited financial reserves to make it through a dry spell.

Tourism, travel, and leisure make up for 15% of the Austrian economy, with only Greece and Portugal a higher percentage.

If travel suffers out of corona I can see Austria holding better than most to be honest. Located where it is, very central in Europe, it could well make up somewhat for the loss of travellers from far afield with an uptick in people travelling over land from nearby countries.

You assume that borders open again soon for casual travel.

Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Quote from: Syt on April 05, 2020, 08:08:00 AM
You assume that borders open again soon for casual travel.

It'll happen before air travel is back to normal.

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Yeah. They may also depend on tourism, but the shut down of all hospitality and cultural venues is a big chunk of the economy of any big city. That sector's going to be full of small businesses and employ lots of people, usually on quite low wages.

I think they will bounce back but if we're going to be in and out of lockdown for a prolonged period they'll all need help.

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Indeed, I think easily available international travel will take several years to come back.

Quote from: mongers on April 05, 2020, 10:18:47 AM

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Indeed, I think easily available international travel will take several years to come back.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: bring back night trains :contract:

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 05, 2020, 10:19:18 AM

Quote from: mongers on April 05, 2020, 10:18:47 AM

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Indeed, I think easily available international travel will take several years to come back.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: bring back night trains :contract:

:)
Yes, good one.

Though I meant to specifically say air travel.

Also whose going to go on a sea cruise in the future, without first checking it's medical facilities and updating their will?

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 05, 2020, 10:19:18 AM

Quote from: mongers on April 05, 2020, 10:18:47 AM

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Indeed, I think easily available international travel will take several years to come back.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: bring back night trains :contract:

Austrian railways heard you. :)

I don't think this will bring back the Paris-Vienna which I really should have used 10-12 years ago.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/business/overnight-train-austria.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/23/business/overnight-train-austria.html)

Air traffic will be back before land borders open as it is very easy to track. Germany will allow East German farmhands for the harvest, but only via plane, so that they can be segregated easily.

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 05, 2020, 10:19:18 AM

Quote from: mongers on April 05, 2020, 10:18:47 AM

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 08:16:49 AM
Travel restrictions combined with economic malaise in other nations will make tourism suffer badly. But a lot of other industries will suffer just as much.

Indeed, I think easily available international travel will take several years to come back.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: bring back night trains :contract:

Would likely have to be combined with more holidays.
I love the idea in theory. But burning several days of my holidays like that now that I have money...

Quote from: Tyr on April 05, 2020, 11:07:37 AM
Would likely have to be combined with more holidays.
I love the idea in theory. But burning several days of my holidays like that now that I have money...

I use them whenever I can. But from the UK it is difficult - SNCF used to be very good on this but isn't anymore.

When they're available I normally find them more efficient than planes or buses because I don't waste a day, but also I'm able to have a full day in x city then go to bed and wake up in (the middle of) y city.

Sadly Serco is by all accounts trashing the Caledonian Sleeper which used to be great <_<

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 05, 2020, 11:40:03 AM

Quote from: Tyr on April 05, 2020, 11:07:37 AM
Would likely have to be combined with more holidays.
I love the idea in theory. But burning several days of my holidays like that now that I have money...

I use them whenever I can. But from the UK it is difficult - SNCF used to be very good on this but isn't anymore.

When they're available I normally find them more efficient than planes or buses because I don't waste a day, but also I'm able to have a full day in x city then go to bed and wake up in (the middle of) y city.

Sadly Serco is by all accounts trashing the Caledonian Sleeper which used to be great <_<

:mad:

Before the crisis, I nearly booked tickets for a trip to Fort William to go last weekend.  :(

I am planning a trip up to Mull later this year and will use the sleeper, but it's massively increased in price from what it use to be and reports on it aren't great :(

That seems the way of sleeper trains in general. Japan rail has cancelled all their regular ones, which is a huge shame as I wanted to take one in my last trip.
They do however have a thousands of pounds a ride luxury Michelin star service running.

Quote from: Tyr on April 05, 2020, 05:03:43 PM
That seems the way of sleeper trains in general. Japan rail has cancelled all their regular ones, which is a huge shame as I wanted to take one in my last trip.
They do however have a thousands of pounds a ride luxury Michelin star service running.

I'm encouraged by the Austrian Railways opening up loads of lines to great success and I believe the Scandinavians ones are doing very well in response to "flight shame". Hopefully it'll take off everywhere.

Lots I agree with and lots I'd argue with in this very characteristic John Gray piece - it isn't a huge surprise, but his expectation is a rather stark Hobbesian world (I've seen David Runciman make a similar argument):

QuoteWhy this crisis is a turning point in history
The era of peak globalisation is over. For those of us not on the front line, clearing the mind and thinking how to live in an altered world is the task at hand.
By John Gray

The deserted streets will fill again, and we will leave our screen-lit burrows blinking with relief. But the world will be different from how we imagined it in what we thought were normal times. This is not a temporary rupture in an otherwise stable equilibrium: the crisis through which we are living is a turning point in history.

The era of peak globalisation is over. An economic system that relied on worldwide production and long supply chains is morphing into one that will be less interconnected. A way of life driven by unceasing mobility is shuddering to a stop. Our lives are going to be more physically constrained and more virtual than they were. A more fragmented world is coming into being that in some ways may be more resilient.

The once formidable British state is being rapidly reinvented, and on a scale not seen before. Acting with emergency powers authorised by parliament, the government has tossed economic orthodoxy to the winds. Savaged by years of imbecilic austerity, the NHS – like the armed forces, police, prisons, fire service, care workers and cleaners – has its back to the wall. But with the noble dedication of its workers, the virus will be held at bay. Our political system will survive intact. Not many countries will be so fortunate. Governments everywhere are struggling through the narrow passage between suppressing the virus and crashing the economy. Many will stumble and fall.

In the view of the future to which progressive thinkers cling, the future is an embellished version of the recent past. No doubt this helps them preserve some semblance of sanity. It also undermines what is now our most vital attribute: the ability to adapt and fashion different ways of life. The task ahead is to build economies and societies that are more durable, and more humanly habitable, than those that were exposed to the anarchy of the global market.

This does not mean a shift to small-scale localism. Human numbers are too large for local self-sufficiency to be viable, and most of humankind is not willing to return to the small, closed communities of a more distant past. But the hyperglobalisation of the last few decades is not coming back either. The virus has exposed fatal weaknesses in the economic system that was patched up after the 2008 financial crisis. Liberal capitalism is bust.

With all its talk of freedom and choice, liberalism was in practice the experiment of dissolving traditional sources of social cohesion and political legitimacy and replacing them with the promise of rising material living standards. This experiment has now run its course. Suppressing the virus necessitates an economic shutdown that can only be temporary, but when the economy restarts, it will be in a world where governments act to curb the global market.

A situation in which so many of the world's essential medical supplies originate in China – or any other single country – will not be tolerated. Production in these and other sensitive areas will be re-shored as a matter of national security. The notion that a country such as Britain could phase out farming and depend on imports for food will be dismissed as the nonsense it always has been. The airline industry will shrink as people travel less. Harder borders are going to be an enduring feature of the global landscape. A narrow goal of economic efficiency will no longer be practicable for governments.

The question is, what will replace rising material living standards as the basis of society? One answer green thinkers have given is what John Stuart Mill in his Principles of Political Economy (1848) called a "stationary-state economy". Expanding production and consumption would no longer be an overriding goal, and the increase in human numbers curbed. Unlike most liberals today, Mill recognised the danger of overpopulation. A world filled with human beings, he wrote, would be one without "flowery wastes" and wildlife. He also understood the dangers of central planning. The stationary state would be a market economy in which competition is encouraged. Technological innovation would continue, along with improvements in the art of living.

In many ways this is an appealing vision, but it is also unreal. There is no world authority to enforce an end to growth, just as there is none to fight the virus. Contrary to the progressive mantra, recently repeated by Gordon Brown, global problems do not always have global solutions. Geopolitical divisions preclude anything like world government. If one existed, existing states would compete to control it. The belief that this crisis can be solved by an unprecedented outbreak of international cooperation is magical thinking in its purest form.

Of course economic expansion is not indefinitely sustainable. For one thing, it can only worsen climate change and turn the planet into a garbage dump. But with highly uneven living standards, still rising human numbers and intensifying geopolitical rivalries, zero growth is also unsustainable. If the limits of growth are eventually accepted, it will be because governments make the protection of their citizens their most important objective. Whether democratic or authoritarian, states that do not meet this Hobbesian test will fail.

***

The pandemic has abruptly accelerated geopolitical change. Combined with the collapse in oil prices, the uncontrolled spread of the virus in Iran could destabilise its theocratic regime. With revenues plunging, Saudi Arabia is also at risk. No doubt many will wish both of them good riddance. But there can be no assurance that a meltdown in the Gulf will produce anything other than a long period of chaos. Despite years of talk about diversifying, these regimes are still hostages of oil and even if the price recovers somewhat, the economic hit of the global shutdown will be devastating.

In contrast, the advance of East Asia will surely continue. The most successful responses to the epidemic thus far have been in Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. It is hard to believe their cultural traditions, which focus on collective well-being more than personal autonomy, have not played a role in their success. They have also resisted the cult of the minimal state. It will not be surprising if they adjust to de-globalisation better than many Western countries.

China's position is more complex. Given its record of cover-ups and opaque statistics, its performance during the pandemic is hard to assess. Certainly it is not a model any democracy could or should emulate. As the new NHS Nightingale shows, it is not only authoritarian regimes that can build hospitals in two weeks. No one knows the full human costs of the Chinese shutdown. Even so, Xi Jinping's regime looks to have benefited from the pandemic. The virus has provided a rationale for expanding the surveillance state and introducing even stronger political control. Instead of wasting the crisis, Xi is using it to expand the country's influence. China is inserting itself in place of the EU by assisting distressed national governments, such as Italy. Many of the masks and testing kits it has supplied have proved to be faulty, but the fact seems not to have dented Beijing's propaganda campaign.

The EU has responded to the crisis by revealing its essential weakness. Few ideas are so scorned by higher minds than sovereignty. In practice it signifies the capacity to execute a comprehensive, coordinated and flexible emergency plan of the kind being implemented in the UK and other countries. The measures that have already been taken are larger than any implemented in the Second World War. In their most important respects they are also the opposite of what was done then, when the British population was mobilised as never before, and unemployment fell dramatically. Today, aside from those in essential services, Britain's workers have been demobilised. If it goes on for many months, the shutdown will demand an even larger socialisation of the economy.

Whether the desiccated neoliberal structures of the EU can do anything like this is doubtful. Hitherto sacrosanct rules have been torn up by the European Central Bank's bond buying programme and relaxing limits on state aid to industry. But the resistance to fiscal burden-sharing of northern European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands may block the way to rescuing Italy – a country too big to be crushed like Greece, but possibly also too costly to save. As the Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte said in March: "If Europe does not rise to this unprecedented challenge, the whole European structure loses its raison d'être for the people." The Serbian president Aleksandar Vucic has been blunter and more realistic: "European solidarity does not exist... that was a fairy tale. The only country that can help us in this hard situation is the People's Republic of China. To the rest of them, thanks for nothing."

The EU's fundamental flaw is that it is incapable of discharging the protective functions of a state. The break-up of the eurozone has been predicted so often that it may seem unthinkable. Yet under the stresses they face today, the disintegration of European institutions is not unrealistic. Free movement has already been shut down. Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent blackmailing of the EU by threatening to allow migrants to pass through his borders, and the endgame in Syria's Idlib province, could lead to hundreds of thousands, even millions, of refugees fleeing to Europe. (It is hard to see what social distancing might mean in huge, overcrowded and insanitary refugee camps.) Another migrant crisis in conjunction with pressure on the dysfunctional euro could prove fatal.

If the EU survives, it may be as something like the Holy Roman empire in its later years, a phantom that lingers on for generations while power is exercised elsewhere. Vitally necessary decisions are already being taken by nation states. Since the political centre is no longer a leading force and with much of the left wedded to the failed European project, many governments will be dominated by the far right.

An increasing influence on the EU will come from Russia. In the struggle with the Saudis that triggered the oil price collapse in March 2020, Putin has played the stronger hand. Whereas for the Saudis the fiscal break-even level – the price needed to pay for public services and keep the state solvent – is around $80 a barrel, for Russia it may be less than half that. At the same time Putin is consolidating Russia's position as an energy power. The Nord Stream offshore pipelines that run through the Baltics secure reliable supplies of natural gas to Europe. By the same token they lock Europe into dependency on Russia and enable it to use energy as a political weapon. With Europe balkanised, Russia, too, looks set to expand its sphere of influence. Like China it is stepping in to replace the faltering EU, flying in doctors and equipment to Italy.

In the US, Donald Trump plainly considers refloating the economy more important than containing the virus. A 1929-style stock market slide and unemployment levels worse than those in the 1930s could pose an existential threat to his presidency. James Bullard, the CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, has suggested the American jobless rate could reach 30 per cent – higher than in the Great Depression. On the other hand, with the US's decentralised system of government; a ruinously expensive healthcare system and tens of millions uninsured; a colossal prison population, of which many are old and infirm; and cities with sizeable numbers of homeless people and an already large opioid epidemic; curtailing the shutdown could mean the virus spreading uncontrollably, with devastating effects. (Trump is not alone in taking this risk. Sweden has not so far imposed anything like the lockdown in force in other countries.)

Unlike the British programme, Trump's $2trn stimulus plan is mostly another corporate bailout. Yet if polls are to be believed increasing numbers of Americans approve of his handling of the epidemic. What if Trump emerges from this catastrophe with the support of an American majority?

Whether or not he retains his hold on power, the US's position in the world has changed irreversibly. What is fast unravelling is not only the hyperglobalisation of recent decades but the global order set in place at the end of the Second World War. Puncturing an imaginary equilibrium, the virus has hastened a process of disintegration that has been under way for many years.

In his seminal Plagues and Peoples the Chicago historian William H McNeill wrote:
It is always possible that some hitherto obscure parasitic organism may escape its accustomed ecological niche and expose the dense human populations that have become so conspicuous a feature of the Earth to some fresh and perchance devastating mortality.

It is not yet known how Covid-19 escaped its niche, though there is a suspicion that Wuhan's "wet markets", where wildlife is sold, may have played a role. In 1976, when McNeill's book was first published, the destruction of the habitats of exotic species was nowhere near as far gone as it is today. As globalisation has advanced, so has the risk of infectious diseases spreading. The Spanish Flu of 1918-20 became a global pandemic in a world without mass air transportation. Commenting on how plagues have been understood by historians, McNeill observed: "For them as for others, occasional disastrous outbreaks of infectious disease remained sudden and unpredictable interruptions of the norm, essentially beyond historical explanation." Many later studies have come to similar conclusions.

Yet the notion persists that pandemics are blips rather than an integral part of history. Lying behind this is the belief that humans are no longer part of the natural world and can create an autonomous ecosystem, separate from the rest of the biosphere. Covid-19 is telling them they cannot. It is only by using science that we can defend ourselves against this pestilence. Mass antibody tests and a vaccine will be crucial. But permanent changes in how we live will have to be made if we are to be less vulnerable in future.

The texture of everyday life is already altered. A sense of fragility is everywhere. It is not only society that feels shaky. So does the human position in the world. Viral images reveal human absence in different ways. Wild boars are roaming in the towns of northern Italy, while in Lopburi in Thailand gangs of monkeys no longer fed by tourists are fighting in the streets. Inhuman beauty and a fierce struggle for life have sprung up in cities emptied by the virus.

As a number of commentators have noted, a post-apocalyptic future of the kind projected in the fiction of JG Ballard has become our present reality. But it is important to understand what this "apocalypse" reveals. For Ballard, human societies were stage props that could be knocked over at any moment. Norms that seemed built into human nature vanished when you left the theatre. The most harrowing of Ballard's experiences as a child in 1940s Shanghai were not in the prison camp, where many inmates were steadfast and kindly in their treatment of others. A resourceful and venturesome boy, Ballard enjoyed much of his time there. It was when the camp collapsed as the war drew to a close, he told me, that he witnessed the worst examples of ruthless selfishness and motiveless cruelty.

The lesson he learnt was that these were not world-ending events. What is commonly described as an apocalypse is the normal course of history. Many are left with lasting traumas. But the human animal is too sturdy and too versatile to be broken by these upheavals. Life goes on, if differently than before. Those who talk of this as a Ballardian moment have not noticed how human beings adjust, and even find fulfilment, in the extreme situations he portrays.

Technology will help us adapt in our present extremity. Physical mobility can be reduced by shifting many of our activities into cyberspace. Offices, schools, universities, GP surgeries and other work centres are likely to change permanently. Virtual communities set up during the epidemic have enabled people to get to know one another better than they ever did before.

There will be celebrations as the pandemic recedes, but there may be no clear point when the threat of infection is over. Many people may migrate to online environments like those in Second Life, a virtual world where people meet, trade and interact in bodies and worlds of their choosing. Other adaptations may be uncomfortable for moralists. Online pornography will likely boom, and much internet dating may consist of erotic exchanges that never end in a meeting of bodies. Augmented reality technology may be used to simulate fleshly encounters and virtual sex could soon be normalised. Whether this is a move towards the good life may not be the most useful question to ask. Cyberspace relies on an infrastructure that can be damaged or destroyed by war or natural disaster. The internet allows us to avoid the isolation that plagues have brought in the past. It cannot enable human beings to escape their mortal flesh, or avoid the ironies of progress.

***
What the virus is telling us is not only that progress is reversible – a fact even progressives seem to have grasped­ – but that it can be self-undermining. To take the most obvious example, globalisation produced some major benefits – millions have been lifted out of poverty. This achievement is now under threat. Globalisation begat the de-globalisation that is now under way.

As the prospect of ever-rising living standards fades, other sources of authority and legitimacy are re-emerging. Liberal or socialist, the progressive mind detests national identity with passionate intensity. There is plenty in history to show how it can be misused. But the nation state is increasingly the most powerful force driving large-scale action. Dealing with the virus requires a collective effort that will not be mobilised for the sake of universal humanity.

Altruism has limits just as much as growth. There will be examples of extraordinary selflessness before the worst of the crisis is over. In Britain an over half-million strong volunteer army has signed up to assist the NHS. But it would be unwise to rely on human sympathy alone to get us through. Kindness to strangers is so precious that it must be rationed.

This is where the protective state comes in. At its core, the British state has always been Hobbesian. Peace and strong government have been the overriding priorities. At the same time this Hobbesian state has mostly rested on consent, particularly in times of national emergency. Being shielded from danger has trumped freedom from interference by government.

How much of their freedom people will want back when the pandemic has peaked is an open question. They show little taste for the enforced solidarity of socialism, but they may happily accept a regime of bio-surveillance for the sake of better protection of their health. Digging ourselves out of the pit will demand more state intervention not less, and of a highly inventive kind. Governments will have to do a lot more in underwriting scientific research and technological innovation. Though the state may not always be larger its influence will be pervasive, and by old-world standards more intrusive. Post-liberal government will be the norm for the foreseeable future.

It is only by recognising the frailties of liberal societies that their most essential values can be preserved. Along with fairness they include individual liberty, which as well as being worthwhile in itself is a necessary check on government. But those who believe personal autonomy is the innermost human need betray an ignorance of psychology, not least their own. For practically everyone, security and belonging are as important, often more so. Liberalism was, in effect, a systematic denial of this fact.

An advantage of quarantine is that it can be used to think afresh. Clearing the mind of clutter and thinking how to live in an altered world is the task at hand. For those of us who are not serving on the front line, this should be enough for the duration.

John Gray is the New Statesman's lead book reviewer. His latest book is The Soul of the Marionette: A Short Enquiry into Human Freedom.

QuoteThe era of peak globalisation is over. An economic system that relied on worldwide production and long supply chains is morphing into one that will be less interconnected. A way of life driven by unceasing mobility is shuddering to a stop. Our lives are going to be more physically constrained and more virtual than they were. A more fragmented world is coming into being that in some ways may be more resilient.

Yes, for the 1-2 years it will take for the developed world to vaccinate the population. Then we will be back to normal, except more things will be done online.

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 07, 2020, 05:23:34 AM
Lots I agree with and lots I'd argue with in this very characteristic John Gray piece - it isn't a huge surprise, but his expectation is a rather stark Hobbesian world (I've seen David Runciman make a similar argument):
....

Thanks Shelf, an interesting article.

Quote from: Sheilbh on April 07, 2020, 05:23:34 AM
Lots I agree with and lots I'd argue with in this very characteristic John Gray piece - it isn't a huge surprise, but his expectation is a rather stark Hobbesian world (I've seen David Runciman make a similar argument):

QuoteWhy this crisis is a turnin

Bizarre article, seeing globalism and capitalism as inherently linked and you can't have one without the other.

Amazing that someone can see the crisis and come to many of these conclusions which are literally the complete opposite of what is needed.

I just have huge trouble comprehending the alien thought patterns of those who think the nation state is in anyway the most logical way to organise the world. Its just so arbitrary.

Quote from: Tyr on April 07, 2020, 08:16:36 AM
Bizarre article, seeing globalism and capitalism as inherently linked and you can't have one without the other.

Amazing that someone can see the crisis and come to many of these conclusions which are literally the complete opposite of what is needed.

I just have huge trouble comprehending the alien thought patterns of those who think the nation state is in anyway the most logical way to organise the world. Its just so arbitrary.

I don't think his point is that they are the most logical. It's the sort-of Hobbesian point.

There is a brute force to a pandemic (and disease/epidemic control are one of the reasons nation states developed in the way they did), the response to that is going to be the entity that can coerce your behaviour. Ultimately nation states are the answer for now because it is nation states who can tell us to stay in our homes or they'll arrest us, or that can monitor our contacts and medical status. It's the nation state we still make that trade-off with of reducing our individual liberties for security.

Typically crises seem to cause people to be willing to go along with infringements they normally would not support. And typically those things far outlast the crisis. We're still waiting for the patriot act to go away twenty years later, Afghan war, etc. It's always a bad sign when something passes in Congress with overwhelming bipartisan or unanimous support.

Quote from: Zanza on April 05, 2020, 10:57:52 AM
Air traffic will be back before land borders open as it is very easy to track. Germany will allow East German farmhands for the harvest, but only via plane, so that they can be segregated easily.

Yeah that's another thing, how are the big five Western European countries going to get the harvest in now that the cheap seasonal labor pool is banned from travelling? Conscript the idle service & office workers for farm duty?  :hmm:

I'm looking forward to workplaces changing. Who is still going to think those horrible open communal office spaces are a good idea after this? The decline of cube farms should help everyone's' sanity too. I'm not sure though. Squeeze's point wasn't far off. The impulse will be to get right back to how it was. We blew that real estate bubble right the hell back up. We might need something like this to recur before people get the point.

I have to admit I'm a bit amused seeing extroverted people going apeshit being stuck outside of their comfort zone, when introverts have to go outside theirs all the time in the extroverted world just to have careers and everything.

Quote from: MadImmortalMan on April 07, 2020, 01:04:12 PM
I'm looking forward to workplaces changing. Who is still going to think those horrible open communal office spaces are a good idea after this? The decline of cube farms should help everyone's' sanity too. I'm not sure though. Squeeze's point wasn't far off. The impulse will be to get right back to how it was. We blew that real estate bubble right the hell back up. We might need something like this to recur before people get the point.

Yeah would be nice but I am afraid we'll back to the office spaces.

Quote
I have to admit I'm a bit amused seeing extroverted people going apeshit being stuck outside of their comfort zone, when introverts have to go outside theirs all the time in the extroverted world just to have careers and everything.

Ain't that the truth.  :lol:

What assumptions from the pre-virus era are people here still operating on and what have you given up?

Oddly enough I'm a lot less caught up in the issues of the day, and spending more time doing things I want/choose to do. It's not bad at all.

Quote from: Maladict on April 13, 2020, 10:27:32 AM

Oddly enough I'm a lot less caught up in the issues of the day, and spending more time doing things I want/choose to do. It's not bad at all.

Yes, that's a good outlook.

Currently I'm only watching the news twice a day, plus languish browsing, no other social media.

Quote from: mongers on April 13, 2020, 10:16:51 AM
What assumptions from the pre-virus era are people here still operating on and what have you given up?

First thing that came to mind was that I feel vindicated in my near-obsessive handwashing habits

Quote from: derspiess on April 14, 2020, 03:03:28 PM

Quote from: mongers on April 13, 2020, 10:16:51 AM
What assumptions from the pre-virus era are people here still operating on and what have you given up?

First thing that came to mind was that I feel vindicated in my near-obsessive handwashing habits

:lol:

Yeah, there's got to be a lot of OCD types out there saying I told you so.