A Simpler Life? - Society / Economy after the Virus

[Admiral Yi]

Mr Coffee filters would work a lot better than Melitta.

[Monoriu]

What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world. 

[fromtia]

What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world.

In what respect do you think Mono?

[Monoriu]

What may really change is China's relationship with the rest of the world.

In what respect do you think Mono?

China will be seen as an enemy rather than a partner.  China's argument that other countries should not interfere in its internal affairs will be significantly weakened, because it is now shown that China's internal policies have devastating consequences for the world.  The rest of the world will present a united front to China.  Unless changes are made, no more trade and flow of people and capital.  The changes will range from the handling of wildlife, disease prevention, access by international bodies, to freedom of the press, and may even include demands for democracy. 

[Legbiter]

We kinda have to figure out a way to get people working again. And fairly soon. But there are no good solutions at this point. Regular well-run small businesses can handle a month with zero income, after that they start rapidly dying. Large corporations can get political bailouts, that's good maybe for 5-6 months or so. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have not locked down completely and they're managing their outbreaks. You can't really "pause" an economy for months and then just unpause it like it's a Netflix show.

[mongers]

We kinda have to figure out a way to get people working again. And fairly soon. But there are no good solutions at this point. Regular well-run small businesses can handle a month with zero income, after that they start rapidly dying. Large corporations can get political bailouts, that's good maybe for 5-6 months or so. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan have not locked down completely and they're managing their outbreaks. You can't really "pause" an economy for months and then just unpause it like it's a Netflix show.

Yes, Italy, Spain, France and to a lesser extent the UK have stopped their economies and as you say it's not like a digital steam to pause as you wish; better to think of industries as the limbs and organs of body politic, stop the blood supply for long and they'll begin to die.

Though some service industries are more like hair, really cut them back, but eventually those just come back to as it was, so after the virus we'll not be short of bar, venue, hair salon and nail-bar start ups.

[Legbiter]

Yes, Italy, Spain, France and to a lesser extent the UK have stopped their economies and as you say it's not like a digital steam to pause as you wish; better to think of industries as the limbs and organs of body politic, stop the blood supply for long and they'll begin to die.

Yeah we're slamming into a wall at 250 mph. It doesn't just turn back on after a "pause". I'm thinking double digit unemployment figures and soup lines. A couple of months of total shutdown is a depression which will take years to recover from.

I think regular people will take one look at the end of April unemployment figures, glance at the half-empty fridge and opinion will turn on a dime. We'll wear homemade spacesuits in order to get back to work.

[11B4V]

What do you think your society and economy will look like after the coronavirus crisis has ended?

What shape will the world economy be in and will humans behave differently?

My guess is it'll be very messy, putting aside the human suffering, countries will have their own virus crisis for very different durations.
So whilst some of the advanced and/or organised society will be trying to start up again,  there will be plenty of countries around the world that will act as virus hotspots that can't be visited or have people from them travelling to a virus free country.

I think the implicit bet contained within Western governments emergency economic measure, that the economy and society can bounce back to how things once were will prove to be wrong.

No doubt there will be a lot of pent up demand in Western countries, but will that be enough to bring things back to the way they were or will a new normal take hold?

We will go back to being stupid and entitled.

[crazy canuck]

@ Mongers, I am only about 300 pages into Picketty's book, and it is an interesting time to read it especially now that I have some time!

One of the points he makes in the early chapters is that the French Revolution did not do much to change property relationships or inequality (it did change the power of the state).  One of the reasons he identifies is that there was so little time to try out new forms of property ownership and there was a deep fear of changing too much from established ownership structures - turns out revolutionaries are conservative at heart.   

[mongers]

@ Mongers, I am only about 300 pages into Picketty's book, and it is an interesting time to read it especially now that I have some time!

One of the points he makes in the early chapters is that the French Revolution did not do much to change property relationships or inequality (it did change the power of the state).  One of the reasons he identifies is that there was so little time to try out new forms of property ownership and there was a deep fear of changing too much from established ownership structures - turns out revolutionaries are conservative at heart.   

Interesting I should give that book a go.

Also I'm now proposing a new informal dating system B.V. and A.V. 

At the very least I think The virus will supersede the WW2 as a frame of reference, the post-war world is over.

[Josquius]

What establishment bollocks?

Whatever Squeeze is opposed to.

So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

[Admiral Yi]

So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

I'm opposing for the sake of mocking usage of an empty and meaningless, but emotionally laden, expression.

[Eddie Teach]

I think he meant the bailouts?

[Josquius]

So in other words you're just opposing for the sake of opposing?

I'm opposing for the sake of mocking usage of an empty and meaningless, but emotionally laden, expression.

Were you asleep during the last financial crisis?
You should be aware of what happened without someone needing to explain it when referencing it.

[Sheilbh]

I think WFH will become far more widespread - a combination of bosses seeing that productivity stays roughly the same and the desire to cut fixed costs like rent. I think if people get ill they will WFH or take the time off instead of going in unless they literally can't (I'm very guilty of this).

I think we'll become more tactile at least in the short term. Bars and restaurants will be the one bit of the economy that, whatever else happens, rebounds in a a huge V shape.

I think there'll be a shift in view on the internet and I think people will realise that now it is an essential service.

I think we'll probably move away from just-in-time multi-national supply chains in some sectors to more stockpiling in warehouses. There's probably definitely a "China" risk that people haven't thought of before, like if a country needs to lockdown. Similarly I think there'll be almost nation security style focus on ensuring there is local capacity to manufacture certain health sector stuff - like PPE.

I think people will start wearing masks when they have a cold/feel ill as a matter of basic social courtesy and not doing it will be like gobbing in the street.