A Simpler Life? - Society / Economy after the Virus

[mongers]

I disagree. And I am irked by the middle class' environmental wunderwaffe of preventing poor people from flying. If we stopped planes altogether it would reduce emissions by around 4%, i.e. it would  not make any difference.

I share this irk. I suspect its rooted in British Middle Class loathing of their social inferiors. teh chavs are on the plane! It must be stopped!

I'm not so sure, plenty of well off people use budget airlines a lot.

IIRC something like 54% of Brits never fly, I'm willing to guess plenty of those are the poor, though as you say it could well be the travelling middle class no wishing to share their bargain trips with the masses.

[Josquius]

Agreed. I really don't think there's much snobbiness about low cost airlines and poor people flying. Even quite decently well off people don't like spending money unecessarily. The old "I only fly BA" stereotype is a dying breed.
And lets face it. Charvas aren't going to be heading off to Florence for a cultural weekend. You get a very different crowd on a flight to Geneva vs. a flight to Malaga.

Also bears noting that flag carriers are often not that much more expensive than easyjet and ryanair. Sometimes cheaper even.



I could see ridiculously cheap flights like my £10 to Romania from a few years back vanishing, but low cost airlines in general are here to stay though how we may use them may change.  It is conceivable that weekend breaks could take a blow as flying becomes more of a fuss with extra health screenings et al, which could push up prices a little.

Would also be nice to see hub airports decline. Stop the talk of expanding Heathrow and expand Birmingham instead.

[Admiral Yi]

I think it'd be a very convenient time to ban, or regulate, or otherwise massively increase the price of it to better reflect environmental impact. It might survive as a very expensive business travel option, but I basically think the days of Londoners going for a weekend in Florence will probably end.

It's a business that is possibly unsustainable on the way it's been run (until we have electric planes) for the last 20 years and there are alternatives. But in normal times it would be very unpopular to make this shift - it's something we could do now. I think (and hope) the train network will develop alternatives.

Edit: And on theme I see that EasyJet is going ahead with the proposed £175 million dividend payment to shareholders which can only mean they've got loads of cash and don't need any state support at this time.

You seem to be describing an example of "policy entrepreneurship," a concept I read about in undergrad.  People have these problems they'd like to address, along with preferred solutions, and they have to wait for the right time and place to sell them and get them adopted.  Right after crises is usually a good time, when everyone is clamoring for fixes.  You slip your problem and your solution into the mix, claiming a connection.  I can think of plenty of examples from the '08 crisis that fit this description, like everything Warren did.  One phrase that stuck with me from the reading is "every crisis is an opportunity."

All that being said, I don't really see how banning cheapo flights fits with preventing or mitigating pandemics.

[Sheilbh]

You seem to be describing an example of "policy entrepreneurship," a concept I read about in undergrad.  People have these problems they'd like to address, along with preferred solutions, and they have to wait for the right time and place to sell them and get them adopted.  Right after crises is usually a good time, when everyone is clamoring for fixes.  You slip your problem and your solution into the mix, claiming a connection.  I can think of plenty of examples from the '08 crisis that fit this description, like everything Warren did.  One phrase that stuck with me from the reading is "every crisis is an opportunity."

All that being said, I don't really see how banning cheapo flights fits with preventing or mitigating pandemics.

Yeah. Just old-fashioned opportunism - more important than that is I think in this sort of crisis and the aftermath, everything will be in flux.

There's no economics textbook in the world that deals with how do you stop your economy - no-one has tried this and this sort of "reset" moment will present an opportunity for all sorts of entrepreneurs.

In terms of this I can see three basic constituencies for wanting to make short-haul flights more difficult/expensive - or just plain banning them.

I think there will be a populist/nationalist right pushback - see Trump's tweet today "THIS IS WHY WE NEED BORDERS!" and the response of various European states, especially those with populist leanings of immediately shutting down their borders - similarly I think the Chinese focus now will be on saying they've dealt with it and new cases are because of foreigners. I think this will create a bit of a pull against foreigners and globalisation - with its easier travel and relatively open borders.

There's also probably a sort of bien pensant middle class element - which has two parts I think. One is the environmental "flight-shaming" people who will possibly see a world without short-haul flights and with lower carbon emissions during this crisis and resist a return to the status quo. The other side of that, in Europe, is that there are significant areas with real anti-tourist movements because there is a sense that certain areas/cities/regions are being overwhlemed and the previous levels of tourism were unsustainable. Again I think they'll resist a return to the status quo. Both of those channels are really reflecting by surging green parties - but are also a part of most social democratic parties' coalitions.

The other group in Europe is, I think, the policy elites possibly at European level who really do want to act on climate and again may see an opportunity. Because they're not having to radically change people's lives by massively curtailing these flights - rather it's just a case of not returning to the status quo. These are folks in plenty of parties - centre left, centre right, liberal.

So on a European level I suppose it's some sort of ungodly Orban-Macron-Podemos-Greens coalition. As I say it's not directly related to the pandemic - but I think in the context of an economic reset policy entrepreneurship won't be limited to pandemic related issues, it'll be closer to post-War politics in Europe and Japan.

[Admiral Yi]

OK, get all that.  But presumably you need to pitch to the public that "we are preparing for future outbreaks by banning EasyJet." 

How do you make that spiel?

[Josquius]

OK, get all that.  But presumably you need to pitch to the public that "we are preparing for future outbreaks by banning EasyJet." 

How do you make that spiel?

There are more ways to encourage a change in consumer behaviours and business practices than just banning things.

[Admiral Yi]

There are more ways to encourage a change in consumer behaviours and business practices than just banning things.

I don't understand why you are directing this to me.  It's Shelf's idea.

[fromtia]

Easy Jet aside, I agree with what Sheilbh is saying, I anticipate on the other side of the present crisis there will be quite a lot of legislative oppurtunism, it's just far to early to tell which way its going to go and whats going to be on the agenda. Neo liberal thumb screws get tightened? Permanent Oligarchy entrenched in the US? Bold attempt to address climate ?less/More Economic Inequality? Ban Bat/Pangolin relations? Who knows.

[Eddie Teach]

The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

[fromtia]

The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

Yeah, by Horny McBatface, the famous horny bat. Shortly before he was made into a sandwich.

[Josephus]

The pangolins are good and truly fucked.

Yeah, by Horny McBatface, the famous horny bat. Shortly before he was made into a sandwich.

I wonder if the guy who ate that ever died or if he's sitting at home going.."duuude I caused the end of the world. "

[Sheilbh]

One other thought on change is I think it'll change the way day-to-day representative democracy works. Select Committees are already changing the way they work to introduce remote, video-conferenced hearings.

There's a lot of irritation that Parliament stays open (though only MPs who are on the order paper are attending the House of Commons), which puts MPs, Lords and workers at risk, especially for non-coronavirus work. I expect Parliament will shut down but I also wonder if they will try to work out some sort of way that, for example, Ministers can make statements or MPs can ask questions in a remote virtual way.

I wonder if at the end of this a lot of MPs will wonder if actually they all need to be in Westminster in a room with 500 other MPs and if that's the best way for a democracy to work these days, especially given the feeling of distance between the governors and the governed.

[Monoriu]

I hope we get changes like more widespread use of distance medical consultation, AI, online shopping, robotics, etc. 

I will also be very happy if we reverse the trend of packing an impossible number of tables in restaurants.  Sometimes I literally have trouble reaching my table because all the corridors are blocked by other tables, or there is only 2cm between my table and the next 

[Barrister]

I think we're definitely going to see a lot more e-filing and remote appearances in the courts.

[merithyn]

The common belief is that it takes 21 days to change a habit. We'll all be on lockdown for a lot longer than that. What changes will that bring about in your life, do you think?

I, for one, anticipate eating out far less than I had been. I'm getting into a rhythm with cooking again, and preparing meals ahead of time. There's comfort in it, and I can see carrying that forward post-quarantine.