Will Taiwan Defect to China?

[Queequeg]

China has coal, but relies on imports for many other resources including oil. Blockade the narrow strait of Singapore and much of their military-industrial complex will grind to a halt as reserves of strategic resources deplete.

That would simply give them a timetable for the conquest of the Southern Resource Area.  I think we have been down this path before.

What area are we talking about?  I don't think Thailand, Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia have a ton of oil, and do they even have refining capacity? A drawn out war across the vastness of Central Asia also has some very obvious downsides (lines of supply across the largest landmass in the world, native hostility, presumed Allied air superiority).   

From a simply geo-strategic perspective I'm not convinced that China is more of a threat than Russia was.  Russia was not just self sufficient in terms of resources, it had a fair sized chunk of the world's oil supply, and was very close to the Western sources of oil too.  Can't say the same for China.  Also think they are just, in general, far more vulnerable; the same coasts that have made Chinese economic growth so impressive the last little while could also be a hazard when carriers and, more likely, subs are stationed not far outside Shanghai, Hong Kong and Beijing.   They could relocate inland (maybe like the KMT, to Chengdu or Shaanxi), but a lot of their industrial capacity is located on the coasts I think. 

[jimmy olsen]

20 million people being betrayed into totalitarian slavery is solving a source of global discontent? I see it as one of the worst events to happen in decades.

The population of China going from 1,320,000,000 to 1,340,000,000 is indeed the worst thing in history.

Hey they gave Hong Kong autonomy they would probably give Taiwan some sort of special deal.

You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.

[Queequeg]

It would make some sense for Taiwan to defect to China, now that China is turning itself into Taiwan.

I was thinking something similar.  There's actually a book out now that argues that the PRC has basically taken the KMT as a model (Leninist, centralized party trying to build up capitalism, after economic growth gradually liberalizing), IIRC it focuses on Chang Kai-shek. 

[Queequeg]

You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.

I think you are vastly overstating how awful a place the PRC is for Mandarins, and that your article's bias against the KMT is obvious.

[jimmy olsen]

You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.

I think you are vastly overstating how awful a place the PRC is for Mandarins, and that your article's bias against the KMT is obvious.

I think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is.

[Queequeg]

I think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is.

Oh no!  Hong Kong has a Kafkaesque bureaucracy!  Its as bad as the Austro-Hungarian Empire, only without the aspirations in Bosnia!

[dps]

What's wrong with a real war the PRC?

Well for one, Canada would be on the wrong side.  Don't think we haven't noticed how the Chinese have been buying up mines and stuff.  You've already been subverted and we'd have to the living shit out of you.  At least the traitorous western part.

Do you actually think that America could defeat China in a war?

Probably not, because our current so-called "leaders" lack the balls to just nuke them back to the Stone Age.

[garbon]

Probably not, because our current so-called "leaders" lack the balls to just nuke them back to the Stone Age.

We're sending Pelosi. That's pretty cruel and unusual.

[Martim Silva]

How can Taiwan defect TO China? I thought they defected FROM China in the first place.

An important point to keep in mind is that neither the PRC nor Taiwan defected from nobody.

Taiwan *never* declared independence. It considers itself part of China (the legal part), and so does the PRC. They both belive they are part of the same nation, but differ as to the regime that should rule the country. If the KMT decides that it is time to give up its claim that it is the legitimate goverment, then the issue is solved.

So keep in mind that can never be an Anschluss, due to the simple fact that Taiwan is, and never stopped being, part of China. Even the US and the whole West always recognized this.

It's just ONE country solving internal issues, that's all. And in a peaceful way, too.

(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)

[Valmy]

(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)

I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.

[Valmy]

You show a callous disregard for the freedom of the individual.

No I show a great relief everytime a potential world conflict point has a possibility of being resolved.

[Barrister]

(besides, it is just logical for Taiwan to tie itself to the one great economy that is still growing, instead of keeping itself close to a bunch of insolvent 'free market' loonie regimes that can no longer buy its goods in a sustaineable way)

I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.

You thought it was only the last paragraph that was moronic?

[garbon]

I knew you couldn't write a post without saying something moronic.

To be fair, he did hold out for a while.

[DisturbedPervert]

I think that Mono regularly proves how horrible a place it is.

Mono's posts would be the same anywhere in the world. 

[DisturbedPervert]

China knows this, of course - hence the Arakan-Kunming pipeline and even the talks of a chinese-controlled canal through the Malay peninsula in Thailand.

Thailand has talked about building the Kra Canal for over a century.  If it ever happens, which it most likely won't, it won't be Chinese controlled, their just looking for (foolish) investors.  Thailand is already allied with the US anyway, and even if not, it could just as easily be blockaded as Singapore.  All the canal would do is create a slight decrease in shipping time from the middle east and Europe to China.