Will Taiwan Defect to China?

[jimmy olsen]

if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.

Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?

and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

[Drakken]

if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.

Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?

and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

The second involves Asians?

Yeah, Germans are such turncoats. 

[Queequeg]

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?

Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit. 

Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this?  Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers.  Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.   

[saskganesh]

if they wanna go, let them go. it's called self determination.

Look at how happy those Austrians are to join German, how can we say no?

and look how happy these East Germans are. I guess we should deny them.

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

in fact, neither belongs. unless you are arguing that South Korea is Czechoslovakia and Japan is Poland.

[saskganesh]

Just give them a fair choice. :p

wow.

[jimmy olsen]

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?

Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit. 

Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this?  Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers.  Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.

The people don't want it. If the article is correct, it's a small minority that's conspiring to bring Taiwan under China's rule.

[Queequeg]

After reading the article, I have to say it is a little troubling that the KMT appears to be backsliding so much and that "anschluss" would happen without popular consent.

But that said, I think the defense of Taiwan is, long term, a prickly thing that I'm not totally sure is wise, as it is so close to the mainland and so...well..inherently Chinese.  If we are destined to have some kind of Cold (or, God forbid, Hot) War with the PRC, I'd rather not have it be over Taiwan, where the PRC would have a lot of advantages.

[saskganesh]

Hmm...
Austria joining Nazi Germany
Taiwan joining the PRC
East Germany joining West Germany

One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong.

A people divided by Cold War lines and a potential starting point of WW3 uniting after a half-century of violent tension and fears of conflict to recognize a shared heritage and destiny?

Yeah, I think I can point to the one that doesn't fit. 

Where is our angle in stopping the Chinese from doing this?  Taiwan is a country of 20 million Mandarin speakers.  Sure its a Democracy, but I'm guessing that any kind of mainland Re-absorption of the island would include Hong Kong style autonomy.

The people don't want it. If the article is correct, it's a small minority that's conspiring to bring Taiwan under China's rule.

well then it's not self determination is it?

again, if they want it, let them go.

[Barrister]

After reading the article, I have to say it is a little troubling that the KMT appears to be backsliding so much and that "anschluss" would happen without popular consent.

I don't know that much about Taiwanese politics, but the article in general seems so over-stated that its assertion that such an "anschluss" might happen seems highly suspect.

[Ender]

OMG in the unlikely event that it would actually happen the US would be horrifed to have gotten rid of a source of friction with China without having to pay the price of defeat.

A very interesting theory. I should have thought of it.

[Neil]

What's wrong with a real war the PRC?

[Queequeg]

The opposition barks for want of bite
It's all right Ma, if you can't please them

EVER since Ma Ying-jeou, Taiwan's president, took office a year ago, the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which supports formal independence from China, has harangued his China-friendly policies. On May 17th party supporters vented their anger on the streets. Demonstrators waved green flags calling Mr Ma a traitor, as they flooded the square in front of the presidential office in Taipei. The DPP claimed 600,000 took part, though the police estimated a mere 76,000. Another rally swamped Kaohsiung in the south. Later that night thousands joined a 24-hour sit-in in Taipei.

Street protests are about all the DPP can do. Mr Ma and his Nationalist Party, the Kuomintang (KMT), have hugely eased the tensions with the mainland that marked the presidency of the DPP's Chen Shui-bian from 2000 to 2008, signing a series of agreements liberalising commercial ties. The DPP is out in the cold. It won 42% of the vote in parliamentary elections last year but holds only 27 of the 112 seats in the legislature, compared with 80 for the KMT. The DPP complains that the government is ignoring parliamentary scrutiny, negotiating with China in secret, and that Taiwan's democracy is deteriorating. Another target of the rallies was proposed new legislation to give the police greater powers to control demonstrations.

Joseph Wu, a moderate and the former DPP government's representative in America, says that if the KMT cannot find a way of co-operating with the DPP the party is bound to become more radical. Already hardliners and moderates are starting to unite in calling for the immediate release of Mr Chen, who has been in prison for six months for alleged corruption, without yet being found guilty, and who this month has faced new charges. DPP moderates used to distance themselves from Mr Chen's corrupt image.

In a fiery speech to the crowd at the end of the sit-in in Taipei, Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP's chairwoman, said the party's next move would be to organise a referendum on Mr Ma's vague plan for a free-trade agreement with China. Mr Ma insists this will help Taiwan weather the impact of China's free-trade agreements with South-East Asian countries, which take effect next year. But the DPP fears political concessions will be made.

The turnout at the rallies has shown that the DPP and its allies are still a force to be reckoned with. But street protests may alienate middle-of-the-road voters and business. Polls show that, though the KMT's popularity has dwindled with the financial crisis, the DPP has not benefited.

Mr Ma's China policies, moreover, have popular aspects. The stockmarket has been doing well, buoyed by the agreements with China. And on May 18th, for the first time in 38 years, Taiwan's health minister took a seat as an observer in the World Health Assembly in Geneva. At a press conference this week, Mr Ma insisted that none of the nine agreements his government has reached with China compromised Taiwan's sovereignty, and that there will be no turning back.

Somehow I trust this article more.

[Queequeg]

What's wrong with a real war the PRC?

[PDH]

What's wrong with a real war the PRC?

<snip image>

Purdy

[Neil]

What's wrong with a real war the PRC?

And what's wrong with that?