2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Phillip V]

The math seems daunting.  Even if Trump flips key swing states such as Ohio and Florida, he needs to scramble the electoral map in weird ways we have not seen in a while, such as take Rust Belt states like Michigan or Pennsylvania.

[celedhring]

Well, in principle, his anti-trade, anti-foreigners-who-steal-our-jobs platform seems suited to the rust belt.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Trump can flip PA, I think. It's a very Trumpian state. In any case, I suspect that this year's electoral map will look very different from the normal post-96 alignment.

[dps]

Take that map and flip Virginia, and Trump wins.  The Republican nominee taking Virginia doesn't seem that weird to me.

[garbon]

For some reason I always get a CAPTCHA when visiting Trump's website. I guess they don't trust foreigners...

I just get to go to the page while on my UK phone.

[Eddie Teach]

In any case, I suspect that this year's electoral map will look very different from the normal post-96 alignment.

I don't think the differences will be that great. Maybe he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania and loses Virginia and Colorado. That's still 90% of states following the pattern.

[Martinus]

In any case, I suspect that this year's electoral map will look very different from the normal post-96 alignment.

I don't think the differences will be that great. Maybe he wins Michigan and Pennsylvania and loses Virginia and Colorado. That's still 90% of states following the pattern.

That's enough to give him victory though.

[Martinus]

Well, in principle, his anti-trade, anti-foreigners-who-steal-our-jobs platform seems suited to the rust belt.

I don't think he will take IL though.

[Eddie Teach]

That's enough to give him victory though.

He could also not pick up the blue Rust Belt states and drop a couple others(Missouri, New Hampshire, Florida maybe). But assuming the election is close in votes, the map will look fairly similar to previous elections.

[dps]

I don't think he will take IL though.

Hillary's originally from Chicago.  If she loses Illinois, she'll be getting routed--the electoral map will look similar to 1980.

[Martinus]

This is why Capetan Mihali should vote Trump:

https://richarddawkins.net/2016/03/uc-proposal-on-intolerance-says-anti-zionism-is-unacceptable-on-campus/

[Eddie Teach]

Hillary's originally from Chicago.  If she loses Illinois, she'll be getting routed--the electoral map will look similar to 1980.

Perhaps, but only because it's such a blue state. Home state advantage for people who left after college isn't that great.

Romney was fairly close though he lost both Massachusetts and Michigan.

[Grinning_Colossus]

Why not compromise and ban both Zionism and anti-Zionism at the UCs? Since they're public universities, I'm sure they can demonstrate a compelling state interest in doing so.

[Jaron]

Utah will probably go blue unless Cruz is the nominee. Trump is deeply unpopular here because of his treatment of Mitt Romney and his attacks on the LDS church.

[Eddie Teach]

Utah will probably go blue unless Cruz is the nominee.

Good one.