2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Phillip V]

So I went to check the general election polling.

All are Trump v. Clinton (sources are the latest state poll at realclearpolitics--all within the last week) :

Michigan: Clinton +5%
Georgia: Trump +9%
Florida: Trump +2%
Ohio: Trump +2%
North Carolina: Trump +2%

Those are all the states polled.

Quite possibly it isn't just the republicans and the whole country has gone insane?

The Establishment has gone insane.

[Eddie Teach]

Isn't that pretty much what is expected? Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are all purple states.

NC has only gone blue once since Reagan.

[Valmy]

Isn't that pretty much what is expected? Florida, Ohio, and North Carolina are all purple states.

NC has only gone blue once since Reagan.

And Virginia used to be reliably Republican as well. But things have changed.

[Eddie Teach]

And Virginia used to be reliably Republican as well. But things have changed.

They voted for Romney while the country went for Obama. That is our most recent data point.

2008 wasn't that close, and it had record levels of black turnout, and NC went for Obama by 3 tenths of a point. That was the first time it had gone Dem since 1976. In that same span, Massachusetts and New York have gone Republican twice each.

[Valmy]

They voted for Romney while the country went for Obama. That is our most recent data point.

And it was about a 2% margin ergo that 2% margin is expected

[Eddie Teach]

They voted for Romney while the country went for Obama. That is our most recent data point.

And it was about a 2% margin ergo that 2% margin is expected

If Hillary wins by 5 million votes. If it's closer, they might have a bigger margin.

My main point was that "purple" states tend to go for the winning party. NC went against Clinton twice and Obama once(and McCain's margin was about 6 points better there than nationally). They're still in the "red" camp, for now.

[Phillip V]

Clinton will not get the record amount of support that Obama got.

[Martinus]

Not that it will matter, but thought Oliver was brilliant yesterday in his take on Trump.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TGc2nN9OguQ

Ultimately, people are voting the brand, not the man.

Ok that rocked.

[Valmy]

They voted for Romney while the country went for Obama. That is our most recent data point.

And it was about a 2% margin ergo that 2% margin is expected

If Hillary wins by 5 million votes. If it's closer, they might have a bigger margin.

My main point was that "purple" states tend to go for the winning party. NC went against Clinton twice and Obama once(and McCain's margin was about 6 points better there than nationally). They're still in the "red" camp, for now.

Ah. I guess I consider any state where it is not a forgone conclusion which way it will go is a purple state. To be a true red state the Republicans have to continually win by at least 5 points (and usually more)

[Legbiter]

The recent "controversy" about Trump tweeting a "fascist quote" that Mussolini once used (but seems older) is the "gotcha journalism" at its worst. Fortunately, their jedi mind tricks don't work on Trump or his supporters.

They also tried to pin David Duke and the KKK on him.

Results: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LltnLzLXs7U 

[Eddie Teach]

But then you look at elections like 1984 or 1964 and they're all purple.

[Valmy]

But then you look at elections like 1984 or 1964 and they're all purple.

Those terms did not even exist back then. I am talking about the current political alignments. I mean sure New York went Federalist in 1796 but I don't think I can call them a...erm...wait did the Federalists have a color?

[Martinus]

The recent "controversy" about Trump tweeting a "fascist quote" that Mussolini once used (but seems older) is the "gotcha journalism" at its worst. Fortunately, their jedi mind tricks don't work on Trump or his supporters.

They also tried to pin David Duke and the KKK on him.

Results: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LltnLzLXs7U 

[Malthus]

I get the impression lots of people enjoy voting for Trump simply for the lulz. They get a kick out of seeing the usual suspects in the media and other establishment types freaking out about it.

Problem is, at the end of the day being president is a job, and there is no indication that Trump would be anything but a disaster at doing it. Is that worth a few laughs?

[Valmy]

Is that worth a few laughs?

In the 21st century? Of course.