2016 elections - because it's never too early

[alfred russel]

I'm going to call it now - Trump is going to be the nominee.

Trump wins 45% of the vote in the Nevada caucuses.

The RCP average has him at 33.6% nationally.

The only poll post Bush dropping out is Rasmussen, which is:

Trump: 36%
Cruz: 17%
Rubio: 21%
Kasich: 12%
Carson: 8%

So while the Nevada result looks extremely good for Trump, and if it is replicated in many places he will be the nominee, if those national polls are correct there is still a path to stop him.

As I mentioned, on 538 some dude said that Trump's best states nationally were New Jersey and Nevada. So it could be an outlier. But then, I saw a Massachusetts poll that had him at 50%.

[Valmy]

But then, I saw a Massachusetts poll that had him at 50%.

They are going to toss Cruz into Boston Harbor while dressed up as an ethnic minority.

[lustindarkness]

I think this game save got corrupted and we need to start over.

[Legbiter]

Hillary has it in the bag. She could probably do or say some stupid shit and it not really have an impact. Fox News will be a must watch on election night.

Siege will be saying Madam President. 

Unless a major swing comes about in the e-mail scandal, I'm beginning to think you're right.  The GOP voting base has lost its mind.  Hillary will be bruised a bit in the nomination process against Sanders, but she's going to coast to victory in the general.

Can't stump the Trump.

[Martinus]

I think this game save got corrupted and we need to start over.

I saw a comment on Facebook that America is on its last season and writers are going nuts. 

[Eddie Teach]

We're taking Iceland and Poland down with us. 

[katmai]

How can we take them down with us, when already below us?

[The Brain]

How can we take them down with us, when already below us?

Ignorant fool. A mortally wounded destroyer could ram a U-boat.

[Eddie Teach]

How can we take them down with us, when already below us?

If we fall far enough, we grab them on way down, to cushion the impact.

[katmai]

How can we take them down with us, when already below us?

If we fall far enough, we grab them on way down, to cushion the impact.

See Brain this is the way you say things nice, you ass.

[Valmy]

Huh. Is Iceland going to elect Donald Trump President as well?

[Eddie Teach]

Huh. Is Iceland going to elect Donald Trump President as well?

Trump will invade it to bump his ratings.

[Razgovory]

Huh. Is Iceland going to elect Donald Trump President as well?

Trump will invade it to bump his ratings.

Well then, he's got my vote.

[Barrister]

Ever since Reagan the Republicans have been running campaigns on the premise that "conservatism" is a positive ideological attribute that attracts voters, whereas "liberalism" is a bad word.  When the Tea Party rose to prominence, a variety of commentators observed that the sentiments expressed, while admittedly pretty incoherent, were not exactly consistent with ideological conservatism.  This campaign has confirmed it: a very substantial part of the GOP base - perhaps a majority - is not "conservative" in the ideological sense.

I think people may be missing perhaps the most obvious reason for Trump's rise, and why it doesn't seem to follow any of the normal rules:

Americans are a sucker for celebrities.

Think about some of the celebrities who have run for office in the last several years.  Guys like Schwarzennegger, Fred Thompson, Al Franken, Sonny Bono, or Jesse Ventura - all won their elections despite fairly thin-to-nonexistent political resumes.  There's also the original celebrity-turned-politician - Ronald Reagan.

In fact as I keep thinking about it the only unsuccessful celebrity-turned-politician I can think of is Fred Thompson's Presidential run - but at the time it was criticized for being extremely laid back and lacking passion - things the Trump campaign is hardly lacking in.  But almost every other time the celebrity has been successful.

Maybe this is just how it is: celebrity trumps all.  Perhaps the 2024 Presidential campaign is going to be between Kanye West and Taylor Swift.

[PJL]

I still expect Trump to be president. Clinton will fail miserably against him.