2016 elections - because it's never too early

Started by merithyn, May 09, 2013, 07:37:45 AM

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Ed Anger

#1680
July 19, 2015, 04:28:43 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2015, 01:43:16 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 19, 2015, 11:03:40 AM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2015, 08:37:48 AM
I'll bet against Trump.  To me, the only question is at what point does his clown act wear out his welcome.  So, $20 to me if Trump doesn't get the nomination, $200 to you if he does?

No good.  I'm short on that bet too.
So you were offering me to go long on this?  Do I look like a moron?  :mad:

Yes
Stay Alive...Let the Man Drive

DGuller

#1681
July 19, 2015, 04:29:39 PM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 19, 2015, 02:06:52 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2015, 01:43:16 PM
So you were offering me to go long on this?  Do I look like a moron?  :mad:

Depends on the lighting.
:mad:

Razgovory

#1682
July 19, 2015, 05:29:51 PM
Quote from: The Brain on July 19, 2015, 01:52:14 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2015, 02:28:04 AM
Quote from: Admiral Yi on July 19, 2015, 01:05:22 AM
10-1 against The Donald winning the nomination.

Guller?  You're still down $20 on the books.  Let's clear it out or turn it into money.

What are the odds of my cat winning the nomination?

How obnoxious is it?

I'm thinking that Trump's chances are between that of my cat and Seedy's cat.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

DGuller

#1683
July 19, 2015, 05:43:22 PM
Seedy's cat?  I don't think her name is going to go over well with Iowa caucus-goers.

Razgovory

#1684
July 19, 2015, 06:21:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2015, 05:43:22 PM
Seedy's cat?  I don't think her name is going to go over well with Iowa caucus-goers.

That's why she's below Trump.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

Maximus

#1685
July 19, 2015, 06:35:42 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 19, 2015, 01:29:41 AM
It's like the Donald is running some kind of tarnish-the-Republican's image troll campaign. :hmm:
It seems likely to me that he's just running interference for the Republican field.

DGuller

#1686
July 19, 2015, 06:40:52 PM
Quote from: Maximus on July 19, 2015, 06:35:42 PM
Quote from: Tonitrus on July 19, 2015, 01:29:41 AM
It's like the Donald is running some kind of tarnish-the-Republican's image troll campaign. :hmm:
It seems likely to me that he's just running interference for the Republican field.
If he is, then I'm not sure the plan is working as intended.  His presence seem to suck the oxygen out of the room, and none of the other GOP candidates seem to get any attention, apart from maybe when they tweet some minor disapproval of the latest thing Trump said.

Razgovory

#1687
July 19, 2015, 06:48:26 PM
The election is over a year away.  I don't think there is any grand scheme behind Trumps actions beyond Trump enjoying attention.  So long as drops out before February he won't make a difference anyway.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017

DGuller

#1688
July 19, 2015, 07:03:45 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2015, 06:48:26 PM
The election is over a year away.  I don't think there is any grand scheme behind Trumps actions beyond Trump enjoying attention.  So long as drops out before February he won't make a difference anyway.
He may make a difference because of debate rules.  Candidates polling outside of the top 10 in polls only have a couple of weeks to get some kind of momentum going, and with Trump taking all the media attention their job just got that much harder.  And if you can't make it to the first debate, then your hole just got even deeper.

Eddie Teach

#1689
July 19, 2015, 07:07:57 PM
So he makes it slightly more difficult for a dark horse who wasn't going to win anyway.
To sleep, perchance to dream. But in that sleep of death, what dreams may come?

jimmy olsen

#1690
July 19, 2015, 07:21:31 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on July 19, 2015, 07:07:57 PM
So he makes it slightly more difficult for a dark horse who wasn't going to win anyway.
Dark horses have come out of nowhere to win nominations late before.


Not connected with that, here's an interesting stat from 538 I just found.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/scott-walker-wants-to-cure-his-party-of-its-weakness-for-moderates/
QuoteRepublican voters have become more conservative in recent years.2 Putting the General Social Survey on our 0 to 100 scale,3 the average self-identified Republican has shifted from a 57 in 1974 to a 71 in 2014, the most conservative ever. In the June YouGov polls, the average self-identified Republican ideology was also a 71.

In other words, the ideology of the average Republican voter now matches up nearly perfectly with the ideology voters have assigned to Walker. He isn't too extreme for the party; the other candidates are more moderate than the average Republican voter.
It is far better for the truth to tear my flesh to pieces, then for my soul to wander through darkness in eternal damnation.

Jet: So what kind of woman is she? What's Julia like?
Faye: Ordinary. The kind of beautiful, dangerous ordinary that you just can't leave alone.
Jet: I see.
Faye: Like an angel from the underworld. Or a devil from Paradise.
--------------------------------------------
1 Karma Chameleon point

DGuller

#1691
July 19, 2015, 07:21:50 PM
Quote from: Peter Wiggin on July 19, 2015, 07:07:57 PM
So he makes it slightly more difficult for a dark horse who wasn't going to win anyway.
Who knows?  Good debate performance won't get you nominated, but it might prevent you from suffocating if you're a great candidate in search of an opening.

alfred russel

#1692
July 19, 2015, 07:31:51 PM
A 10 person debate isn't really a debate but more like 10 simultaneous mini press conferences. It is hard to really distinguish yourself in something other than a negative way.

Trump will probably be good for ratings as people love to watch train wrecks. That may help knock Bush back to the rest of the pack earlier than normal (because people actually notice there are 8 candidates on stage other than Bush and Trump).
They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.

There's a fine line between salvation and drinking poison in the jungle.

I'm embarrassed. I've been making the mistake of associating with you. It won't happen again. :)
-garbon, February 23, 2014

DGuller

#1693
July 19, 2015, 08:05:59 PM
Quote from: alfred russel on July 19, 2015, 07:31:51 PM
A 10 person debate isn't really a debate but more like 10 simultaneous mini press conferences. It is hard to really distinguish yourself in something other than a negative way.

Trump will probably be good for ratings as people love to watch train wrecks. That may help knock Bush back to the rest of the pack earlier than normal (because people actually notice there are 8 candidates on stage other than Bush and Trump).
None of the debates are really debates, this is US we're talking about.  And surely you can distinguish yourself in a positive way, just prepare an impromptu Obama put-down and hope it goes viral.

Razgovory

#1694
July 19, 2015, 08:26:25 PM
Quote from: DGuller on July 19, 2015, 07:03:45 PM
Quote from: Razgovory on July 19, 2015, 06:48:26 PM
The election is over a year away.  I don't think there is any grand scheme behind Trumps actions beyond Trump enjoying attention.  So long as drops out before February he won't make a difference anyway.
He may make a difference because of debate rules.  Candidates polling outside of the top 10 in polls only have a couple of weeks to get some kind of momentum going, and with Trump taking all the media attention their job just got that much harder.  And if you can't make it to the first debate, then your hole just got even deeper.

I'll think he'll drop out before then.
I've given it serious thought. I must scorn the ways of my family, and seek a Japanese woman to yield me my progeny. He shall live in the lands of the east, and be well tutored in his sacred trust to weave the best traditions of Japan and the Sacred South together, until such time as he (or, indeed his house, which will periodically require infusion of both Southern and Japanese bloodlines of note) can deliver to the South it's independence, either in this world or in space.  -Lettow April of 2011

Raz is right. -MadImmortalMan March of 2017
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