2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Zanza]

Really? The candidate whose entire campaign is based on being as big an outrageous troll as possible made his insane destructive short comment of the day to meet his quota, and you are arguing about it as if it was at least a lengthy editorial in the Economist.

No wonder this guy won and will probably win the Presidency as well. The Onion article was spot on. You just can't look away

How did not opposing Orban work out for you?

[Admiral Yi]

oooh

[Martinus]

I tire of this discussion, too. Let's get back to memes.

[Martinus]

I do think though that if even the US cannot flip a bird to international financial markets then we have got to a rather sad state of affairs.

[Zanza]

I tire of this discussion, too. Let's get back to memes.

[Admiral Yi]

I do think though that if even the US cannot flip a bird to international financial markets then we have got to a rather sad state of affairs.

  If you learned to gracefully concede points you wouldn't have to keep using these ridiculous 3rd grade face saving lines.

[Duque de Bragança]

French primaries on the left or on the right won't be as colourful.

Crazy socialists and populists are too normal in France.

Edit: Wait Juppé is favored to win? I thought he was convicted of corruption charges back in the day 

He's the media darling despite being un-charismatic and a not-so-good track record as you say. His attempt at reforms in 1995 (!) was a disaster.
One could argue he took one for the team i.e Chirac however.
He's like Chirac now, not-so conservative, more like a centrist. Bayrou said he would run for president if Juppé is not selected as centre and right candidate.
But then, Hollande managed to be president. 

[Legbiter]

[Jaron]

Really? The candidate whose entire campaign is based on being as big an outrageous troll as possible made his insane destructive short comment of the day to meet his quota, and you are arguing about it as if it was at least a lengthy editorial in the Economist.

No wonder this guy won and will probably win the Presidency as well. The Onion article was spot on. You just can't look away

How did not opposing Orban work out for you?

OWNED

[Martinus]

Really? The candidate whose entire campaign is based on being as big an outrageous troll as possible made his insane destructive short comment of the day to meet his quota, and you are arguing about it as if it was at least a lengthy editorial in the Economist.

No wonder this guy won and will probably win the Presidency as well. The Onion article was spot on. You just can't look away

How did not opposing Orban work out for you?

OWNED

Ok now you are getting unfriended for good.

[Tamas]

The point is, this discussion over "debt reduction" was a perfect example of what is happening in this election in general. Trump makes an asshatery of a comment, never intending to do anything else than to raise eyebrows, because he knows what follows next:

first, adult people get shocked/annoyed at a prospect of his "proposal" becoming policy one day. The spoiled brats/frustrated idiots who want to be contrarian for its own sake (ie. Trump supporters) stand behind what he "proposed" and either just go full retard in yelling it or try to rationalise it as it being a good idea.

Then the anti-Trump people keep the whole thing on the agenda by trying to discuss it with the fanbois, as if the fanbois would be out to debate or be convinced instead of just pushing the cart of their selected circus clown.

End result? Everywhere you look or listen its TrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump.

The genius of the man is that he knows how this works, and has the complete lack of a spine which is needed to make it work.

And actually I am far less worried about the first 3 years of his future Presidency than I would have been if a dangerous fanatic like Cruz would have become President.

Here is what I mean:

I think the likes of Cruz actually mean at least some of the things they say, and it is due to the fucked up times we are living that fringe lunatics like him can get anywhere as close to power as he has. People like him are very dangerous by default, be them high school teachers, priests, or presidents of the US of A.

Trump, evidently, is fully aware what kind of idiots his supporters are. You can't go around contradicting yourself all the time without not meaning a word you say at any given time. Yes, he is very similar to Orban in this regard.

That's why I am fairly certain if elected, he will not make too much of rumpus initially. He will know too well it will be much more profitable to him to cater to the establishment rather than trying to destroy it.

The problems will come when he will be gunning for his second term. He will have to go back being a raving in your face madman as that is his only selling point, and unlike now he will be in power so he will actually have to at least try to push through some of the insane shit he has been talking about.

And he WILL ruin his country if that is the price to being reelected, make no mistake about it.

[Jaron]

TrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrumpTrump.

[alfred russel]

Politico article analysing how Trump could win:

Unless the #NeverTrump people have been hiding a mad scientist with a DeLorean in a warehouse somewhere and haven't gotten around to telling anybody, Donald J. Trump is now the certain Republican nominee for president of the United States. True to form, having learned nothing from their yearlong string of overconfident and embarrassingly wrong predictions about voter behavior and preferences, the D.C. pundit class has already proclaimed him a general election loser.

Not so fast. For the handful of polls that have Trump losing by double digits, there's one or two that foretell a much closer race. And if enough major chips fall the tangerine billionaire's way, he may get his shot at repainting the White House metallic gold. Want to know if you should join Lena Dunham on a house-hunting trip in Canada? Here's a month-by-month guide of the signs of a looming Trump victory.

MAY-JUNE

Sign #1: Bernie Sanders keeps winning primaries, while Trump eggs him on.

Sanders' surprise victory in Indiana almost certainly guarantees that Hillary Clinton will be battling the Vermont Democrat all the way to the convention. And it's not at all unlikely that Sanders will win other states on the road to California (such as West Virginia or Oregon). This is a big opportunity for Trump. Imagine: He echoes Sanders' talk on trade while amplifying the idea that Sanders' supporters are being cheated by a "rigged" process, paving a road for Sanders' fanatics that leads directly into the Trump camp. In Indiana, 30 percent of Sanders voters said they wouldn't support Hillary Clinton if she were the nominee. If Trump can take even half of them in Indiana and beyond, that's a major advance.

Sign #2: #NeverHillary Takes Off.

It's not at all clear how large the #NeverTrump contingent is. But more worrying than its size is that the crowd
consists of writers and professional talking heads who have lots of contacts with producers, pithy quotes and earpieces at the ready. Trump needs some counterprogramming—and good news for him, if there's one thing Donald Trump is a master at it's creating new, shiny Internet memes. Why not make #NeverHillary his own? He might even peel off at least a few of these #NeverTrumpers to focus on #NeverHillary instead, like Reince Priebus did last night. In any event, if #NeverTrump is still a "thing" by mid-June, he's in for some trouble.

Sign #3: No other prominent Republican is accused of conspiring in the Kennedy assassination.

I mean, what was the point of that? Trump, already a likely winner in Indiana, didn't have to mention a kooky National Enquirer conspiracy to keep things interesting. And in the end, the tactic did even more damage to his party—giving a number of Trump haters a convenient excuse to abandon the GOP. Which means that for the next two months, the presumptive nominee will have to resist every urge and impulse to troll his fellow Republicans. If he can do that, he'll go far in bringing his party together—setting the GOP up for a solid general election performance. Even the moderate Senator Susan Collins said she could support Trump if he avoids "bizarre" behavior and "gratuitous personal insults." Good luck with that.

Sign #4: Trump hires campaign veterans.

He's already started this with people like Paul Manafort and Ed Rollins (who's joined the pro-Trump SuperPAC), but he'll need a few more hires to show he's really serious about winning. That's not to say he should bring in all the geniuses, as he calls them, who led the GOP to defeats in the past two elections. But he will need to bring on board people who know the basics about organizing in 50 states, arranging GOTV efforts, monitoring recounts and negotiating media advertising rates. Also it wouldn't hurt to have a few more people around who understand the daunting electoral math ahead.

Sign #5: The Third Party effort languishes.

Currently a not insignificant number of spurned Republicans think running as a third-party candidate is a good idea—as long as someone else does it. Trump should hope that the effort is all talk, and no action. (You know, like what's gotten D.C. Republicans into this mess in the first place.) If a serious third-party contender fails to materialize by the end of spring, then Trump has had a good first month or two as Republican standard-bearer.

JULY-AUGUST

Sign #6: Trump targets the Rust Belt.

The electoral math is not difficult. Trump, or any Republican for that matter, can't win the election unless they turn some Obama blue states red. For Trump, with his populist economic message, his best chances are places like Michigan (which Obama won by 9 points in 2012), Ohio (which Obama won by 2), Pennsylvania (which Obama won by 5), and Wisconsin (which Obama won by 7). None of those victories was by an insurmountable margin. A telling sign of Trump's prospects for electoral success is if he shows he understands that, spending the bulk of his time campaigning in places like Pittsburgh or Toledo, or even Flint. Perhaps he can even chip in to replace lead-infested water pipes there.

Sign #7: Trump's vice presidential pick is not a complete, mismanaged disaster.

The best-case scenario: Contrary to expectations that he'll have his potential VP sit across a table in a boardroom doing demeaning tasks while audience members vote on the winner, Trump instead arranges a methodical, professional, low-key process to vet and interview potential running mates. There will be many people advising Trump to pick a solid Republican officeholder who will soothe the wounds of Trump opponents. Others will urge a woman in the foolish belief that will magically solve his gender gap issues with Clinton. If those are his top considerations, he's asking for a summer disaster.

Trump needs a running mate who can assure nervous Republicans (and independents) that this guy—how shall we put it?—isn't a few Trump steaks short of a full cow. All of which means it's probably not in Trump's interest to pick someone who'll pull a Kasich ("I may be on the ticket, but it's not an alliance") or who will only half-heartedly support him ("I don't think he's that bad. Probably.") He needs someone who can make the case for Trump with sincerity.

On paper, Marco Rubio might be a good fit (Obama won Florida by a single point in 2012, and both Trump and Rubio have significant ties to the state), but only if there's a way that he can convince himself Trump is able to do the job. That likelihood grows with every news cycle that moves us away from memories of "Little Marco."

Sign #8: Hillary Clinton stays the course.

Trump's prospects would be strengthened if by midsummer, Clinton, worried about her Sanders supporters, has shown little more than a half-hearted effort to reach out to Republicans. In short, Trump needs to hope for Clinton to stay the safe, conventional candidate who lost to Barack Obama. Her speeches need to remain anodyne and uninspiring, with pandering, focus-group language that screams "career politician." (A sample line from her last memoir: "From the moment I first held Chelsea in my arms in the hospital in Little Rock, I knew my mission in life was to give her every opportunity to thrive.") Her policies stay conventional; she enunciates support for, say, tax increases and bigger government programs. Her VP choice proves dull and idea-deprived.

In short, if a majority of voters remember what they don't like about Clinton in the first place by the time the conventions come around, Trump may be poised for a November surprise.

Sign #9: FBI-email scandal grows, or the mainstream media takes Juanita Broaddrick seriously.

These are the sort of "wild cards" that undoubtedly will be keeping Clinton campaign advisers up at night—like for the next six months.

SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER

Sign #10: Trump overperforms in first debate with Clinton.

Trump will head to the debate with Clinton with expectations so low that if he shows up with matching shoes on, pundits will call it a win. If he actually demonstrates that his knowledge of foreign policy isn't limited to countries where members of the Mar-a-Lago staff were born, and refrains from using the National Enquirer as a fact-checking source on the national debt, then he may well emerge from their confrontation a far more credible commander in chief. Think that's impossible? Just ask Sarah Palin.

Sign #11: Polls show Michigan or Pennsylvania in play.

If a number of polls show at least one or two of the key Rust Belt states in play—like within the margin of error—then Trump really could pull this off.

ELECTION WEEK

Sign #12: Someone (Ivanka?) changes Trump's Twitter account password.
And she doesn't tell him what the new one is.

Marty, you cut and pasted out a couple of big ones:

May-June

In a surprise development, Obama announces the planned resumption of the "Back to Africa" movement, and republicans in congress, eager to see the departure of black voters, provide generous funding. The movement is wildly successful.

July-August

Other minority groups, seeing how successfully the black community is adjusting to their new lives in Africa, begin to return to their "homelands" on their own. Hispanics in particular embrace this initiative.

September - October

Although most minorities have by this point "repatriated", many "Black Lives Matter" protestors have remained. Those that did return to Africa return to the US for the US election. Though they no longer have the right to vote, they can still disrupt Trump rallies, which they do on a regular basis.

[Legbiter]

NEW YORK — Hillary Clinton's supporters in recent days have been making a furious round of calls to top Bush family donors to try to convince them that she represents their values better than Donald Trump, multiple sources in both parties told POLITICO.

The moves come as Clinton and the Democratic Party try to take advantage of deep unease among establishment Republicans on Wall Street and elsewhere with Trump's emergence as the presumptive Republican nominee.

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/05/hilary-clinton-bush-donors-222872

Dosen't seem like Clinton wants to actually win this thing. 

[Hamilcar]

Isn't most of US debt still held domestically, too? Looks like he likes loading hollow points when shooting himself in the foot.

Isn't most developed economy debt held domestically? That's why Japan still exists.