2016 elections - because it's never too early

[Legbiter]

Trump's peaking right on the eve of the election while Clinton is down according in the LA Times / USC poll.

Yeah, I say on current trends Trump will win because damn, the Taint is real. 

[Legbiter]

Hey why wouldn't trust Timmay's prediction about Clinton's victory? After all he was right about ebola deimating Africa last year.

If anyone's prediction turns out wrong we'll just blame the Russians. 

[Liep]

Yeah, I say on current trends Trump will win because damn, the Taint is real. 

Meanwhile the odds on a Trump victory is up to 4.2

[Martinus]

Timmy's Taint destroyed ebola - Clinton is small beer.

[Zanza]

Timmy's Taint destroyed ebola - Clinton is small beer.

[jimmy olsen]

Real turnout > Polls

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Nov06.html#item-3

Early Voting Continues to Presage Trouble for Trump
Assuming recent history holds, somewhere between 120 million and 130 million people will vote in this election. And roughly one-third of them—39,697,817, to be exact—have already cast their ballots. The analysts at TargetSmart have analyzed the available data (including interviews with those who have already voted), and they have some happy news for Hillary Clinton. Quite a bit of it in fact. Specifically:
Clinton appears to be leading Donald Trump among early voters by about 9 points, or roughly 4 million votes. For Trump to make up that difference, he would need 55% of the remaining votes.

55.9% of the voters so far are women. If women voters outnumber men by 10 points, that is ghastly news for Trump, and would make the "55% to catch up" all but impossible.

Trump has been counting on "low propensity" voters—those who don't turn out very often—to carry him to victory. While the number of low propensity voters is up this year, they are breaking for Clinton and not Trump, by about 7 points

The early voters are 80% white; the general population is about 63% white. If 30 million white voters have already cast their ballots (along with 10 million non-whites), that leaves about 50 million white voters to go, along with 35 million non-white voters. Supposing Hillary Clinton took 40% of the remaining white vote and 80% of the remaining non-white vote on Election Day (both very reasonable estimates), she would collect approximately 48 million of the remaining 85 million votes to Trump's 37 million. To even things out, and to possibly make up the existing 4 million gap, Trump would have to perform far, far better than expected among minority voters, or would have to take something like 85% of the remaining white votes. Either of those is a tall order.

Of course, these are all national numbers, and the presidency is decided on a state-by-state level. But bad news for Trump is starting to trickle in there, as well. Particularly in Nevada, where early voting came to an end on Friday night. Democrats have a 73,000-vote advantage in Clark County (home of Las Vegas), and a 45,000-vote advantage statewide. These figures mean the Democrats start Election Day with a six-point advantage. That is better than Barack Obama did in 2012's early voting, and he went on to win the state by seven points. Nevada's pre-eminent political analyst, Jon Ralston, asserts that Trump will need "a miracle" to win the Silver State and, beyond that, his failures could sink Republicans downballot as well, most obviously Senate candidate Rep. Joe Heck.

In the end, these early voting numbers could be predictive of what's going to happen on Election Day. Alternatively, they could prove to be Hillary Clinton's insurance policy against a Comey-inspired backlash. Either way, though, she still looks like the much better bet to claim the White House. Charlie Cook (see above) probably shouldn't be so skittish.

[FunkMonk]

Hey why wouldn't trust Timmay's prediction about Clinton's victory? After all he was right about ebola deimating Africa last year.

If anyone's prediction turns out wrong we'll just blame the Russians. 

I predict that some predictions will be good and some predictions will be bad.

That is an Official FunkMonk-FSB ABC News/WSJ-538 Prediction.

[dps]

Could be just people getting used to the idea of early voting?

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that's what's really going on with early voting.  I don't think it has anything specifically to do with the particular candidates running this year.

[Ed Anger]

I got called a c u c k this morning. At Bob Evans no less.

[Zoupa]

Trump's peaking right on the eve of the election while Clinton is down according in the LA Times / USC poll.

Yeah, I say on current trends Trump will win because damn, the Taint is real. 

That poll has been an outlier for over a year. Way to cherry-pick.

Try again with a serious methodology poll.

[CountDeMoney]

I got called a c u c k this morning. At Bob Evans no less.

Stop picking fights with old people.

My parents went to go vote early last week;  Dad said Mom was totally spoiling for a fight with the first person that even raised an eyebrow about challenging her voter status.  You're not the demo, crazy lady 

[Ed Anger]

I got called a c u c k this morning. At Bob Evans no less.

Stop picking fights with old people.

My parents went to go vote early last week;  Dad said Mom was totally spoiling for a fight with the first person that even raised an eyebrow about challenging her voter status.  You're not the demo, crazy lady 

I can't help being a smartass. I gotta be me.

[Legbiter]

That poll has been an outlier for over a year. Way to cherry-pick.

Try again with a serious methodology poll.

They almost perfectly predicted Obama's margin of victory in 2012.

[CountDeMoney]

I can't help being a smartass. I gotta be me.

Calling someone on the wait staff "boy" is no way to go through life, son.

[garbon]

I can't help being a smartass. I gotta be me.

Calling someone on the wait staff "boy" is no way to go through life, son.

Well as long as they ain't black are white, sounds mighty fine.