The Atlantic: Conservative Media have failed Republicans, lost to MSM

[Syt]

His book looks to be a pretty good one too.  The world would be a much better place if general public understand at least the basics of probability and statistics.

Seriously? You honestly think anyone besides semi-autistic accountant/actuaries would give two shits about that stuff? Or at least care enough to have it generally affect their lives? Put down the book, DG, and go get laid. Please. For your own good.

Haven't read the book, but every time I read a newspaper article that misquotes statistics/probabilities or draws wrong conclusions, or calls doubling of a value "an increase of 50%" I cringe, and I'm not even nearly an expert on those things, just someone using common sense when looking at numbers.

[garbon]

His book looks to be a pretty good one too.  The world would be a much better place if general public understand at least the basics of probability and statistics.

Seriously? You honestly think anyone besides semi-autistic accountant/actuaries would give two shits about that stuff? Or at least care enough to have it generally affect their lives? Put down the book, DG, and go get laid. Please. For your own good.

Haven't read the book, but every time I read a newspaper article that misquotes statistics/probabilities or draws wrong conclusions, or calls doubling of a value "an increase of 50%" I cringe, and I'm not even nearly an expert on those things, just someone using common sense when looking at numbers.

Meh, some things we just have to let go of. I remember how sad I was when one of my sociology classes at Stanford had an exam that featured questions determining whether we could read data from tables and charts.

[frunk]

His book looks to be a pretty good one too.  The world would be a much better place if general public understand at least the basics of probability and statistics.

Seriously? You honestly think anyone besides semi-autistic accountant/actuaries would give two shits about that stuff? Or at least care enough to have it generally affect their lives? Put down the book, DG, and go get laid. Please. For your own good.

No, he's right.  The world would be much better if most people had a better understanding of statistics.  How many times have you heard "Latest medical study warns that eating peaches increases chances of thyroid dysfunction by 100%" and it means that instead of a .001% chance of thyroid problems you have .002%.  There's a lot of meaningless crap that gets repackaged to make it look alarming using numbers and statistics, and even a modicum of understanding will cut right through it.

[merithyn]

No, I don't think that, but I would be happy to be proven wrong, and the sudden spike in interest in his book could be the thing that would prove me wrong.  If people interested in 538 for partisan reasons would read his book in euphoria, they may learn a thing or two that would be highly useful knowledge in order to be a critical thinker.  As for the other stuff, frankly that kind of garbage is beneath you.

It was said with love and out of concern for you. My brother, god love him, is an actuary, too, and I've seen how involved he can get when it comes to that stuff. It's almost like he loses himself in the numbers. I'm just worried that you've done that during this election season, and was suggesting a way to step away from the numbers for a little fun. I meant no insult, honest.

[Eddie Teach]

I'm just worried that you've done that during this election season, and was suggesting a way to step away from the numbers for a little fun. I meant no insult, honest.

[merithyn]

No, he's right.  The world would be much better if most people had a better understanding of statistics.  How many times have you heard "Latest medical study warns that eating peaches increases chances of thyroid dysfunction by 100%" and it means that instead of a .001% chance of thyroid problems you have .002%.  There's a lot of meaningless crap that gets repackaged to make it look alarming using numbers and statistics, and even a modicum of understanding will cut right through it.

Most reasonable people have heard - and believe - the meme that 74% of all statistics you hear are made up. Very few people even pay attention anymore to them anymore for that reason.

What really needs to happen is that the media has to learn to stop scaring the crap out of people with ridiculous headlines. The statistics are just a microcosm of the greater problem.

[merithyn]

I'm just worried that you've done that during this election season, and was suggesting a way to step away from the numbers for a little fun. I meant no insult, honest.

Well, not really. I was more just poking fun at him.

[frunk]

Most reasonable people have heard - and believe - the meme that 74% of all statistics you hear are made up. Very few people even pay attention anymore to them anymore for that reason.

What really needs to happen is that the media has to learn to stop scaring the crap out of people with ridiculous headlines. The statistics are just a microcosm of the greater problem.

The issue isn't just to ignore statistics, it's to understand them and evaluate their importance.  Some are useful, some are garbage, and figuring out which are which is an incredibly valuable skill.

[DGuller]

It was said with love and out of concern for you. My brother, god love him, is an actuary, too, and I've seen how involved he can get when it comes to that stuff. It's almost like he loses himself in the numbers. I'm just worried that you've done that during this election season, and was suggesting a way to step away from the numbers for a little fun. I meant no insult, honest.

 

To be clear, though, having knowledge of basic probability and statistics doesn't have to involve many numbers.  At its core it's just a kind of logical thinking, and a very tricky kind of thinking where intuition can easily lead you astray (and thus make you an easy pray for manipulation).  I did not crunch any numbers during this election, all my thinking was qualitative.  I just had to know enough to know that Nate Silver had it right, and that his critics had some very basic fundamentals wrong.

[Razgovory]

Yes, because we're in such a mood to be lectured to by The Atlantic

Anyway, I'm genuinely surprised that Obama was able to generally match his voter enthusiasm from '08.  I couldn't even find people here who were certain it would be so.

Well, will you be in a better mood after you lose another election?

[DGuller]

Most reasonable people have heard - and believe - the meme that 74% of all statistics you hear are made up. Very few people even pay attention anymore to them anymore for that reason.

What really needs to happen is that the media has to learn to stop scaring the crap out of people with ridiculous headlines. The statistics are just a microcosm of the greater problem.

The issue isn't just to ignore statistics, it's to understand them and evaluate their importance.  Some are useful, some are garbage, and figuring out which are which is an incredibly valuable skill.

Exactly.  Ignoring statistics because they can be manipulated is a pretty silly way to deal with the problem.  That's like not going to a doctor because some doctors are quacks.  When used correctly, statistics are very powerful, so you ignore them at your own peril.

[merithyn]

Not really. We have guys like you and my brother to ferret out the answers for us. That is, after all, why you get paid very well for what you do.

[DGuller]

Not really. We have guys like you and my brother to ferret out the answers for us. That is, after all, why you get paid very well for what you do.

But how do you know that I know what I'm talking about, and not an idiot/blowhard/bullshitter?  Hypothetical question, of course.

[Maximus]

I think it's possible that a basic grasp of statistics will be as crucial to being an informed person in the information age as being able to read was in the age of print.

I'm certain that something will fill that role, reading just isn't enough anymore, there's too much to sift through. Among the contenders I can see, statistics is among the best.

[merithyn]

Not really. We have guys like you and my brother to ferret out the answers for us. That is, after all, why you get paid very well for what you do.

But how do you know that I know what I'm talking about, and not an idiot/blowhard/bullshitter?  Hypothetical question, of course.

Because of the way you handle things that have nothing to do with numbers. Despite how the last few weeks have been, in general, you don't talk a lot about numbers. You have opinions on a lot of things that numbers can't dictate, and your responses to those things assure me that when you talk numbers, you're showing integrity and honesty in the use of them. Besides, true numbers people like you, Silver, and my brother can't skew them and live yourselves.