The Great Debate Megathread! Black Lincoln versus whiter, richer Douglas!

[Habbaku]

Put them all together, and people are shocked at the visual existence of 5 sons. The only problem is that they are not super handsome.

They're all the same, though. It's like they talk to each other telepathically.  It's just creepy when they're together.

http://www.theonion.com/articles/paul-ryan-knocked-over-by-pack-of-rambunctious-rom,29529/

[DGuller]

Those are RCP averages.  You know what I think about that meaningless babble.

Actually, I've been mislead by a link to RCP.  That was actually just one tracking poll, which is an even more meaningless number (especially if it was cherry-picked rather than taken at random).  The RCP averages point to a 2-2.5% post-debate swing, which is exactly what 538 indicates as well.

[alfred russel]

Those are RCP averages.  You know what I think about that meaningless babble.

Actually, I've been mislead by a link to RCP.  That was actually just one tracking poll, which is an even more meaningless number (especially if it was cherry-picked rather than taken at random).  The RCP averages point to a 2-2.5% post-debate swing, which is exactly what 538 indicates as well.

The RCP average still has a bunch of polls from before the debate built in.

Lets take a step back.

1)What do you think the national polls are right now?
2) If the only information I was able to provide right now were the popular vote total percentages, what is the threshold you would consider to be 50-50?

[DGuller]

Lets take a step back.

1)What do you think the national polls are right now?
2) If the only information I was able to provide right now were the popular vote total percentages, what is the threshold you would consider to be 50-50?

1)  The best model I have indicates it's 51-48.  I'll go with that.
2)  I think Obama being behind by 0-1 points would be an electoral college toss-up.

[alfred russel]

Sounds reasonable.

The question is, what are the chances that Romney can make ~3.5% in just under a month. He is probably reasonably close to the margin of error in any event. I don't know what the historical trends are, but I would guess swings of 3.5% are not uncommon in the last month. I also don't know whether people usually break toward the challenger or incumbant.

[CountDeMoney]

All the polls I've seen have been either +1 Mittens, +1 Chicago Book Cookers, or a toss-up.

[Kleves]

Will Obama: win the electoral college but lose the popular vote?

[Valmy]

Will Obama: win the electoral college but lose the popular vote?

Hmmmm...that might get the Republicans to finally support ending it.  I hope so.

[Valmy]

I still do not understand why people are so excited about Romney after that debate.  All his ideas were either horrible, vague, or completely unfeasible.

[derspiess]

I still do not understand why people are so excited about Romney after that debate.  All his ideas were either horrible, vague, or completely unfeasible.

I'm speaking very generally here because I don't quite agree with your characterization of Romney in the debate, but are you shocked that a significant portion of the electorate values style over substance?

[derspiess]

Will Obama: win the electoral college but lose the popular vote?

Hmmmm...that might get the Republicans to finally support ending it.  I hope so.

...with equal pushback from Democrats.  It'd be 2000 in reverse. 

But I would still support the electoral college system in any case.

[DGuller]

Sounds reasonable.

The question is, what are the chances that Romney can make ~3.5% in just under a month. He is probably reasonably close to the margin of error in any event. I don't know what the historical trends are, but I would guess swings of 3.5% are not uncommon in the last month. I also don't know whether people usually break toward the challenger or incumbant.

Lower than it seems, IMO.  There is a solid bedrock that each candidate has, and it isn't going to be swayed by Obama farting during the debate.  The first 1% swing is always going to be much easier than the next 1% swing.  I also doubt that history would be much of a guide, since people nowadays make up their mind earlier and with conviction.

[Valmy]

I'm speaking very generally here because I don't quite agree with your characterization of Romney in the debate, but are you shocked that a significant portion of the electorate values style over substance?

Good point, once I listened to the Nixon-Kennedy debate and was amazed anybody ever though Nixon didn't wipe the floor with him. 

[Valmy]

...with equal pushback from Democrats.  It'd be 2000 in reverse. 

But I would still support the electoral college system in any case.

A system designed to make sure the small states do not get ignored...but in practice means everybody gets ignored except for Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?  I fail to see its merits aside from age.

[DGuller]

A system designed to make sure the small states do not get ignored...but in practice means everybody gets ignored except for Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania?  I fail to see its merits aside from age.

Agreed.  It's a complete anachronism, and it disenfranchises states that aren't one of the few ones designated as "battleground".