Syria Disintegrating: Part 2

[Admiral Yi]

Most of Mosul has been recaptured and nobody seems to give a shit.

[CountDeMoney]

The US possibly dropping ordnance on over 200 civilians puts a damper on things.

[jimmy olsen]

Looks like we're going to get deeply involved without any forethought or planning at all.  Yay 

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_58d5d3f5e4b0f633072b37db?

Sen. Chris Murphy, Contributor
United States Senator for Connecticut

Trump Is Dragging Us Into Another War... And No One Is Talking About It

While Americans have been focused on the ACA and Trump's ties to Russia, Trump has been busy expanding the American troop presence inside Syria.

03/25/2017 11:47 am ET | Updated 9 hours ago

Quietly, while Americans have been focused on the ongoing drama over repealing the Affordable Care Act and the new revelations about the Trump campaign's ties to Russia, President Trump has been busy dramatically expanding the American troop presence inside Syria. And virtually no one in Washington has noticed. Americans have a right to know what Trump is planning and whether this will lead to an Iraq-style occupation of Syria for years to come.

Without any official notification, Trump sent 500 new American troops into Syria, ostensibly to take part in the upcoming assault on the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa. News reports suggest this deployment may just be the tip of the iceberg, with some saying that the plan is for hundreds more American troops to be added to the fight in the coming weeks. No one actually knows how many troops are inside Syria now, because the administration has largely tried to keep the build-up a secret.

This deployment poses a significant, potentially catastrophic risk for the United States and the future of Syria and the Middle East. Congress cannot be silent on this matter. I have long been against putting U.S. troops on the ground in Syria—I opposed the idea during the Obama administration and I oppose it now, because I believe we are destined to repeat the mistakes of the Iraq War if we try to force political stability simply through the barrel of a gun. I would urge my colleagues who have not focused on the question of U.S. troop presence in Syria to, at the very least, demand the administration answer two basic questions before signing off on the money to fund this dangerous escalation.

First, what is our mission and what is our exit strategy?

The public explanation of the military escalation has been to prepare for the assault on Raqqa. Taking Raqqa is a necessary and long-desired objective. The problem lies in making U.S. troops an indispensible part of the invasion force, which likely will require us to stay and become an indispensible part of the occupation force as well. This is what happened in Iraq and Afghanistan, and I see no reason why we wouldn't face the same trap in Syria. But if this is not the administration's plan, they should be explicit about this. They should assure Congress and the American public that we are in Syria simply until Raqqa falls, and no longer.

There are other important questions to ask. Recently, Trump sent a small group of Special Forces operators to Manbij to keep the peace between Kurdish and Turkish-backed forces fighting for control of this remote section of northern Syria. This suggests our military mission is much broader—and more complicated—than simply helping to retake Raqqa.

Many Syria experts agree that once Raqqa is taken from ISIS, the fighting is just beginning. The contest then begins between the various proxy forces (Saudi, Iranian, Russian, Turkish, Kurdish) over who ultimately controls the city. Will U.S. forces leave at that point, or does Trump's plan envision that we will stay to mediate future control of large portions of the battlespace? This would be a mirror of Iraq, in which thousands of Americans died trying to figure out the post-Saddam settlement of accounts between the Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds. And it could result in just as much American bloodshed.

Second, do we have a political strategy or just a military strategy?

This past Thursday, I joined other members of the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee for lunch with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. I was glad that Tillerson was willing to open the doors of the State Department to a bipartisan group of Senators, and our discussion was honest and frank. In the meeting, Tillerson showed admirable candor in admitting that the military strategy was far ahead of the diplomatic strategy in Syria.

But this was actually a dramatic understatement. Unless a secret plan exists that Trump is keeping from U.S. Senators and his own Secretary of State, there is absolutely no plan for who controls post-ISIS Raqqa, or post-Assad Syria.

The obstacles to a political plan for the future of Raqqa increase by the week. U.S. military leaders want to rely on Kurdish and Arab fighters to retake Raqqa, but hope that the Kurds will then abandon the city after they lose hundreds or thousands of their soldiers in the assault. Even if this fantasy were to become reality, it would come at a price – the Kurds would expect something in return for their effort. And today, we have no idea how to execute this two-step without having peace undermined by the Turks, who remain violently opposed to giving territory the Kurds. To add complications, the Russian and Iranian-backed forces, sitting just outside Raqqa today, are not going to allow for a U.S.-backed Arab or Arab/Kurdish government to be peacefully installed inside the city. They will want a piece of the action, and we have no credible plan to accommodate them today.

Without a political plan for the future of Raqqa, a military plan is practically useless. Yes, getting ISIS out of Raqqa is a victory in and of itself, but if we set into motion a series of events that simply prolongs the broader conflict, ISIS will easily pick up the pieces and use the ongoing turmoil to regroup and reemerge. We should have learned in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya that a military victory without a plan for what comes next is really not a victory at all. But unbelievably, we seem on the verge of making this mistake again, because of (understandable) enthusiasm for taking the fight to a vicious enemy.

I want ISIS gone. I want them destroyed.  But I want it done the right way. I do not want to Americans to die and billions of dollars to be wasted in a war that makes the same mistakes as the disastrous American invasion of Iraq. And I certainly don't want the war to start in secret, without Congress even noticing that it's starting. Congress needs to get in the game and start asking questions - before it's too late.

[Tamas]

Well, somebody has to clean up Russia's new backyard for them.

[Syt]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/04/syria-chemical-attack-idlib-province

Syria: suspected chemical attack kills dozens in Idlib province

Doctors say victims from attack on Khan Sheikhun were bleeding from the nose and mouth, had constricted irises and suffered from convulsions

WARNING: Some readers may find the images in this article distressing

Dozens of people have been killed in a suspected chemical attack in rebel-held northern Syria, in one of the largest mass casualty incidents using a toxic gas in the six-year conflict.

The death toll rose to 67 in the hours after the attack on Khan Sheikhun in Idlib province on Tuesday morning. Doctors said the victims exhibited symptoms apparently matching those caused by exposure to deadly sarin gas. Scores more people were injured.

The raids were carried out by planes believed to be loyal to the government of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. Later, a series of airstrikes on the same town targeted a hospital and two emergency response centres that were recovering and treating victims of the initial strike.

The attack came a day after the US ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, said the US government was no longer focused on Assad's removal from office, and as a two-day conference on Syria's future, hosted by the EU and UN, began in Brussels.

The international chemical weapons watchdog said it was gathering and analysing information. The French foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, demanded an emergency UN security council meeting.

Khan Sheikhun houses thousands of refugees from the nearby province of Hama who have fled the fighting there.

"In this most recent attack, dozens of children suffocated to death while they slept," said Ahmad Tarakji, the head of the Syrian American Medical Society, which supports hospitals in opposition-controlled areas in Syria. "This should strike at the very core of our humanity. How much longer will the world fail to respond to these heinous crimes?"

SAMS said its doctors had determined that the symptoms of the patients were consistent with exposure to organic phosphorus compounds like the nerve agent sarin, which is banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention.

"Everyone is horrified and the children are in total shock," said Mohammad Hassoun, a spokesman for civil defence rescue workers in the nearby town of Sarmin, which received 14 of the wounded.

Hassoun said the victims were bleeding from the nose and mouth, had constricted irises and suffered from convulsions.

The casualties have been distributed across a wide range of hospitals in Idlib, with some sent north towards Turkey. There were reports that casualties driven to the Bab al-Hawa crossing on the Turkish border were experiencing difficulties in entering the country for emergency relief.

"The total number of wounded is incredible, so far it's over 200," said Mohammad, a doctor at another hospital in Idlib. "We received over 20 victims and most of them are children, and two of them in the ICU are extremely critical. There are a lot of injured and most of these who were near the epicentre of the attack are either dead or in intensive care.

"The families are in a terrible state because they expect the victims to die."

Mohammad said the victims he had seen had constricted irises, low oxygen and poor blood pressure and were drifting in and out of consciousness. Many were on respirators.

Few hospitals in Idlib have the capacity to deal with the symptoms of chemical attacks due to the repeated bombing of medical facilities by forces loyal to the government, and lack sufficient oxygen tanks to treat victims.

Idlib is one of the last bastions of rebel control in Syria, and has been subjected to a relentless campaign of aerial bombardment despite a supposed ceasefire brokered earlier this year by Russia and Turkey that was aimed at paving the way for political negotiations.

The raid in Khan Sheikhun indicates the growing confidence of Syria's president, Bashar al-Assad. Assad has wrested control of territory from the rebels, including the entire city of Aleppo, in recent months. His regime has benefited from the unflinching support of Moscow and Shia militias backed by Iran, as well as waning support for the opposition by its allies in the region and the new American administration.

The attack will refocus attention on the failure of the international community to prevent the worst abuses in Syria's war, and casts doubt on a signature achievement by the administration of Barack Obama, which negotiated the presumed destruction of Assad's chemical arsenal in 2013.

That deal followed a sarin gas attack on eastern Ghouta near Damascus in August 2013 that killed more than 1,000 people and nearly prompted an American intervention in the conflict.

Since then, chemical attacks have continued on a smaller scale, mostly deploying chlorine gas, which was not covered by the deal because it has industrial uses. The deployment of toxic gas on this scale is an escalation of Assad's war and indicates that his military still retains supplies of banned chemical weapons.

"The world doesn't care and no one will do anything," said one British doctor working in northern Syria to assist local hospitals, who shared footage of the patients arriving at his clinic.

The footage showed patients arriving with their shirts removed and being hooked up to respirators, as well as disturbing images of dead children who had suffocated.

The Syrian opposition described the attack as "appalling" and called on the UN security council to take action.

"The Assad regime continues to use internationally prohibited weapons in bombing civilian areas in a blatant violation of the fourth Geneva convention and UN security council resolutions 2118, 2209, 2235 and 2254," the opposition Syrian coalition said. "These crimes would not have happened again had it not been for the lukewarm response by the international community and its failure to ensure protection for civilians."

[CountDeMoney]

President Trump on Tuesday said a deadly gas attack in Syria carried out by forces loyal to Syrian leader Bashar Assad is a "consequence" of former President Obama's approach to the country's civil war.

"Today's chemical attack in Syria against innocent people, including women and children, is reprehensible and cannot be ignored by the civilized world," Trump said in a statement.

The president faulted his predecessor for helping create the conditions for the attack when he backed away from his 2012 "red line" on Assad's use of chemical weapons.

"These heinous actions by the Bashar al-Assad regime are a consequence of the past administration's weakness and irresolution," Trump said.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/327259-trump-hits-obama-after-syrian-gas-attack

[Valmy]

Typical Russian politician, blaming everything on America.

[Syt]

Official Russian line is that an air strike hit a rebel stockpile of chemical weapons.

[Tamas]

I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

I have no doubt Assad and the Russians are capable of nerve gassing civilians, and I have no doubt the desperate rebels would be happy to try and spin a story like that to get support.

[Valmy]

I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

I have no doubt Assad and the Russians are capable of nerve gassing civilians, and I have no doubt the desperate rebels would be happy to try and spin a story like that to get support.

Sure blaming in on actors in Syria makes sense. Blaming it on Obama less so.

[CountDeMoney]

I am absolutely ready to believe both versions of this story.

Of course you are.  You're a dick.

[Tamas]

I didn't mean Trump's version FFS

[CountDeMoney]

I didn't mean Trump's version FFS

I didn't mean that version, either.  Dick.

[dps]

Maybe we've finally found out where Saddam sent his WMDs. 

[CountDeMoney]

Many, many lines were crossed this day.