Coup Rumours in China

[HisMajestyBOB]

As long as I get my paychecks, I don't care if zombie Qin Shi Huang stages a coup and slaughters millions.

[derspiess]

That could get messy real fast if true.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?

[HisMajestyBOB]

That could get messy real fast if true.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?

Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. 

[Kleves]

One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying 

Speaking of boring guys in suits, I heard on NPR that all Chinese lawyers are now required to swear allegiance to the Communist Party.

[derspiess]

Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. 

Can you fix ATMs? 

[Monoriu]

One boring group of guys in suits may be supplanting another boring group of guys in suits, its very worrying 

Speaking of boring guys in suits, I heard on NPR that all Chinese lawyers are now required to swear allegiance to the Communist Party.

Yes I read that report too.  Doesn't make any real difference.  The party has total control over the courts. 

[HisMajestyBOB]

Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. 

Can you fix ATMs?

I've got a hammer. How much do you pay?

[Admiral Yi]

I've got a hammer. How much do you pay?

Do you hammer in the morning?

[Jacob]

Someone care to give an exec summary on this?

The leadership transition that happens every ten years in China is coming up later in 2012.

Bo Xilai, until recently the party secretary (i.e. head honcho) of Chongqing, has just been arrested. Previously Bo was famous for roughly cracking down on organized crime (and legitimate businesses) and instituting various Maoist flavoured public displays (see Minsky's "Bo Knows Purge" thread from last week), and he was considered a leading contender for a place on the Politburo later this year. Not so anymore.

Recently, some shots were heard at night in the area where high party officials reside. Speculation and rumour followed suit, because real information is hard to come by. However, it's clear that Bo's former protegees are turning against him (Bo himself was by all accounts ready to throw his own guys under the bus when necessary, so it's not surprising they'd return the favour - the big thing was his former police chief Wang Lijun who sought refuge at the US consulate for a day last February).

It looks like a showdown, perhaps ideologically based, between reformers (Hu Jintao and Wen Jiabao, the outgoing leaders) and leftists, potentially including other outgoing Politburo members like the aforementioned Zhou Yongkang (the guy in charge of the courts, police, internal security, repressing Tibetans and other dissenters).

It's pretty hard to tell exactly what's going on. How ideologically motivated is it, and how much of it is purely political power plays as people jockey for position for the upcoming leadership transition? It's hard to say.

One thing that is pretty noticeable and interesting is the degree to which ordinary Chinese are able to follow and discuss this, especially using the net using metaphors and euphemisms, in spite of official censorship. People know what's going on, or at least what the rumours are, if they're interested.

[Jacob]

That could get messy real fast if true.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?

Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.

Geopolitically, I suppose it depends on whether you think it's likely that the US is well positioned to take advantage of a mess in China, how severe the impact is on the world (and US) economy and to what degree you expect the US itself might get sucked into or stick in a detrimental mess.

[Jacob]

Well, tons of people predicted Bo's fall after Wang's arrest.  I haven't heard anybody talk about Zhou.

Well, now you have. It's the prediction of Epoch, so we'll see how accurate they are.

I am not familiar with the English sources, because I read the Chinese newspapers 

Makes sense.

So far the English language sources I've found lag behind the various Chinese sites my wife follows by a couple of days, miss a bit of context, generalize a bit too much or focus on mildly related human interest side stories. Epoch is the first English language news source I've found that has offered context and analysis that actually brought new information into the Jacob household. Like you, I'm extremely sceptical of Falun Gong, and I'm sure they have a destabilizing agenda (it's pretty obvious in the articles I linked) and that that colours their analyses; but it's nonetheless more substantial information than what's otherwise readily available to me.

[Monoriu]

Bo Xilai, until recently the party secretary (i.e. head honcho) of Chongqing, has just been arrested. Previously Bo was famous for roughly cracking down on organized crime (and legitimate businesses) and instituting various Maoist flavoured public displays (see Minsky's "Bo Knows Purge" thread from last week), and he was considered a leading contender for a place on the Politburo later this year. Not so anymore.

Some nitpick: 

Bo hasn't been arrested.  At least not officially.  He *merely* lost his Chongqing job. 

He is already a member of the politburo.  There are two layers in the politburo.  The larger, 25-member full body, and a smaller, 9-member standing committee.  Standing committee members are much more powerful.  "Ordinary" politburo members are usually party chiefs of important provinces or major cities.  I think he hasn't lost his status as a politburo member after his removal from his Chongqing job.  So he is now like a "minister without portfolio".

[Sheilbh]

I've read that if Bo gets arrested or not will be an interesting sign.  If he's arrested it suggests there are really serious ructions at the top.  If not then perhaps not.

[Jacob]

Some nitpick: 

Bo hasn't been arrested.  At least not officially.  He *merely* lost his Chongqing job. 

He is already a member of the politburo.  There are two layers in the politburo.  The larger, 25-member full body, and a smaller, 9-member standing committee.  Standing committee members are much more powerful.  "Ordinary" politburo members are usually party chiefs of important provinces or major cities.  I think he hasn't lost his status as a politburo member after his removal from his Chongqing job.  So he is now like a "minister without portfolio".

Right. Standing committee of the politburo. And not arrested, just not seen in public since his removal was announced.

[Jacob]

I've read that if Bo gets arrested or not will be an interesting sign.  If he's arrested it suggests there are really serious ructions at the top.  If not then perhaps not.

Yeah pretty much.

Where did you read this?