Coup Rumours in China

[Monoriu]

Of the 9 current members of the standing committee, 7 are due to step down later this year because they are over 67.  The two left will become party general-secretary and premier respectively (this was decided in the last party congress 5 years ago).  So there are lots of places for grabs. 

[derspiess]

Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.

Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering.  I'm just saying that with the Chinese Communists being the bad guys, it might not be a bad thing to have bad guys fighting against bad guys.

Geopolitically, I suppose it depends on whether you think it's likely that the US is well positioned to take advantage of a mess in China, how severe the impact is on the world (and US) economy and to what degree you expect the US itself might get sucked into or stick in a detrimental mess.

I think there would be plenty of ways to profit from a big mess in China.  And I don't see any likely scenarios where the US gets sucked into it, not directly anyway.

[Sheilbh]

Yeah pretty much.

Where did you read this?

I think the Economist's new China blog:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/analects

[Tamas]

Thanks Jacob!

[Jacob]

Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering.

Good to hear

I'm just saying that with the Chinese Communists being the bad guys, it might not be a bad thing to have bad guys fighting against bad guys.

If that happens, millions of people (tens or hundreds) will have their lives destroyed. If it's just the upper and middle echelons of the party fucking each other over, then that's pretty good, but usually ordinary people are the ones to bear the brunt of any chaos.

I think there would be plenty of ways to profit from a big mess in China.  And I don't see any likely scenarios where the US gets sucked into it, not directly anyway.

You see opportunities, not risks. Very entrepreneurial

[Admiral Yi]

China has done a very good job of handling succession.

[Neil]

That could get messy real fast if true.

Is that necessarily a bad thing?

Unless you've got a job lined up for me, yes, it is. 

I have a hard time feeling bad for you.  You're teaching Chinese people how to become spies and cybercriminals.  You're a bad person.

[Jacob]

I have a hard time feeling bad for you.  You're teaching Chinese people how to become spies and cybercriminals.  You're a bad person.

You have a hard time feeling bad for anyone, except possibly dreadnought captains.

[The Minsky Moment]

China has done a very good job of handling succession.

This could be taken at face value or facetiously; I'm not sure which is meant.

The Zhao-Jiang succession was not particularly smooth.  The Jiang-Hu succession went smoothly from the perception of the outside world but there may have been a lot of infighting behind the scenes.  The present turnover is already looking a bit on the rocky side.  I also would question whether any method of government succession that systematically eliminates the input of the governed can be called "good" in any meaningful sense.

[The Brain]

Welf?

[The Minsky Moment]

Welf?

Staufer.

[Razgovory]

China has done a very good job of handling succession.

This could be taken at face value or facetiously; I'm not sure which is meant.

The Zhao-Jiang succession was not particularly smooth.  The Jiang-Hu succession went smoothly from the perception of the outside world but there may have been a lot of infighting behind the scenes.  The present turnover is already looking a bit on the rocky side.  I also would question whether any method of government succession that systematically eliminates the input of the governed can be called "good" in any meaningful sense.

Smoother then the Soviet method.

[Admiral Yi]

Both smoother than any other one party state has managed and smoother than the previous Chinese system.

[Siege]

Well for you it's probably not. You get to watch dramatic things and human suffering on TV and feel good that it doesn't involve you or people you know or care about. So if that's all you care about, then a mess in China is probably a good thing for you.

Come on now, I don't enjoy watching human suffering. 

I do. I want ALL muslims DEAD!!!!!!111111oneoneone

How do you like that, Jacob?
How does your bleeding heart feel about about my deep hatred for Islam???

[Razgovory]

It doesn't require a bleeding heart to be repulsed by demands for genocide.  In fact, what makes you different then those who want all Jews dead?