2012 US Presidential Election Megathread!

[CountDeMoney]

I sometimes hear people talk about Biden in 2016.  I'm pretty sure he'll be put in a home by then.

Martin O'Malley is already gearing up.  And his term's over in 2014, just in time for the pre-primary season.

[DGuller]

Christie would definitely be a contender. I think the main knocks against him would be the perception that's he a moderate northeastern Republican. I also wonder how Midwestern and Southern Republicans would respond to his background and personality. Mitt Romney obviously was at a disadvantage due to his Massachusetts background.

By today's standard, Christie is definitely a moderate.  For all his bluster directed at state Democrats, he's quite willing in the end to strike a deal with them to get things passed.  That's a huge no-no if you're a real Republican these days.  I also think that tough-talking blusterers have a short shelf life; eventually their act wears thin, while grudges caused by such rudeness don't (I think this is especially true in Christie's case, because his tough truth-telling is proved to be made up of lies disturbingly often).

[stjaba]

Mitt was 'the guy' from the beginning.  In the GOP, the guy who came in second in the previous primary gets it the next time-- that's just how it works.  So it was his turn.  I think Jeb might have made a run and been the flavor of the month (or maybe two months), but I think Mitt is about the only moderate-ish guy who could've weathered the storm. 

Just because it worked out that way doesn't make it so. Mitt Romney was an extraordinarily weak front runner. A lot of Republican voters were uncomfortable with him for a multitude of reasons- Mormonism, perceived moderation, poor charisma, whatever. There were stages during the campaign where a group of has-beens and never-would-bes (i.e. Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, and Herman Cain) led the national polls. The current crop of Republican candidates just wasn't good.

If Rick Perry hadn't been such a crappy speaker, he would have an inside track. When he initially entered the campaign, a lot of smart people thought he was going to win, and for good reasons: he was a proven fundraiser, a three term big state governor with solid conservative credentials. What killed him were his gaffes and extraordinarily poor performances at the debates. He's the closest thing to Jeb Bush there was (aside from intelligence and speaking ability). Jeb Bush is a great speaker and debater, so he wouldn't have the problems that Rick Perry had.

I think he was wise to stay out-- there just seem to be some virulently anti-Jebites in the GOP that would have gotten the knives out early on.

I've never got the impression that there a bunch of anti-Jebites running around, but I won't dispute that. But to win the nomination, you don't need to win 100% of the vote, just pile up enough delegates. Heck, no one has more haters than Newt Gingrich, and it looked like he had a shot for a while. I doubt Jeb's unfavorable numbers were that much worse that Mitt's. In fact, the talk radio types seemed to hate Mitt quite a bit during the primaries, at least based on the few times I listened to Rush Limbaugh.

Mitt was 'the guy' from the beginning.  In the GOP, the guy who came in second in the previous primary gets it the next time-- that's just how it works.

Edit: One more thing. While this has been generally true, the reason why is because Republican primary voters prefer establishment/recognizable candidates. Jeb Bush would have been acceptable to the establishment based on name recognition, fundraising network, etc.

[Eddie Teach]

Martin O'Malley is already gearing up.

An Irishman? Didn't we learn our lesson with Kennedy and Reagan? 

[jimmy olsen]

Mitt was 'the guy' from the beginning.  In the GOP, the guy who came in second in the previous primary gets it the next time-- that's just how it works.  So it was his turn.  I think Jeb might have made a run and been the flavor of the month (or maybe two months), but I think Mitt is about the only moderate-ish guy who could've weathered the storm. 

Won't happen next time. No way in hell Santorum or Paul will win the nomination if Romney loses.

[garbon]

Martin O'Malley is already gearing up.

An Irishman? Didn't we learn our lesson with Kennedy and Reagan? 

Well he'd certainly make for our fittest president:

[Eddie Teach]

Oh, good, a Putin wannabe.

[Sheilbh]

Oh, good, a Putin wannabe.

Just wait till Congressman Aaron Schock runs for President.

[garbon]

Oh, good, a Putin wannabe.

Well you could just as easily say Scott Brown.

[garbon]

Oh, good, a Putin wannabe.

Just wait till Congressman Aaron Schock runs for President.

Thankfully we have sometime before that baby would run.

[Neil]

Isn't incompetence a good quality in a VP?  It's not like they actually have anything to do, and the only VP in recent memory to graduate to President was Bush I.  Sure, there's Nixon, Johnson and Truman, but Johnson and Truman came up due to the unexpected death of the incumbent, and Nixon was out of politics for  the better part of a decade between being Eisenhower's veep and winning in '68.

[alfred russel]

Jeb Bush gave an interesting talk at Bloomberg today. He stated that both Ronald Reagan and his father, George H.W. Bush would feel out of step in today's Republican Party. He said that he would have taken a budget deal that would have resulted in $1 in added taxes for every $10 in cuts- a proposition that every Republican presidential candidate rejected. In line with previous comments he's made, he also argued that the Republican Party should moderate its stance to immigration reform.

All points he is saying shortly after making it clear he won't be the VP nominee. I wouldn't be surprised if he kept his mouth shut until he knew he wouldn't get picked, and if he had been he would play the role expected of him (ie, not saying stuff like the above).

[stjaba]

All points he is saying shortly after making it clear he won't be the VP nominee. I wouldn't be surprised if he kept his mouth shut until he knew he wouldn't get picked, and if he had been he would play the role expected of him (ie, not saying stuff like the above).

I'm not sure what you're getting at, but I got the sense that Bush had absolutely no desire to be a VP candidate. In fact, I believe he gave an interview where he stated that if offered the position, he would turn it down.

[11B4V]

Martin O'Malley is already gearing up.

An Irishman? Didn't we learn our lesson with Kennedy and Reagan? 

Well he'd certainly make for our fittest president:

Couldnt figure out what he was doing until I saw the whole pic. Hes holding hands with two retards. Raz on the left and Jaron on the right. 

[Eddie Teach]

That guy's too pale and too skinny to be Jaron.