Any way for the Germans to win the Eastern front?

[jimmy olsen]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

Well, if Germany's forced the Brits to concede already by winning in Africa that hardly matters does it?

[Monoriu]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

Well, if Germany's forced the Brits to concede already by winning in Africa that hardly matters does it?

Even if the Brits lost in North Africa, I fail to see how they would concede.  They didn't concede even after they lost France. 

[Tonitrus]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

Well, if Germany's forced the Brits to concede already by winning in Africa that hardly matters does it?

Germany declared war on the U.S. to support their Japanese allies while Britain was in the war.  Why wouldn't there be even more reason to do the same without Britain in the war?

I could easily see that if somehow, Britain felt forced to sign a white peace (certainly no earlier than Spring/Summer '41, if that), if Germany declared war on the U.S. after Pearl Harbor, Britain would be right back in it on our side.

[Habbaku]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

I'm not sure that's actually true.  I watched a panel of historians of WWII a few days ago.  One of the more esteemed members of the group made the case that the Japanese only made the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 because they were assured that Hitler was winning and would declare war shortly after.  Their original plan called for an attack on the USA in 1946, but the Germans assured them that Germany would stand against the USA alongside them in the event of an earlier attack.  Germany's initial successes in Barbarossa were key in convincing the Japanese that the Germans weren't going to lose the war and that it was best to jump onto the winning side as early as possible.

[dps]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

I'm not sure that's actually true.  I watched a panel of historians of WWII a few days ago.  One of the more esteemed members of the group made the case that the Japanese only made the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 because they were assured that Hitler was winning and would declare war shortly after.  Their original plan called for an attack on the USA in 1946, but the Germans assured them that Germany would stand against the USA alongside them in the event of an earlier attack.  Germany's initial successes in Barbarossa were key in convincing the Japanese that the Germans weren't going to lose the war and that it was best to jump onto the winning side as early as possible.

That doesn't really sound right.  The Japanese couldn't wait until 1946 to attack, unless they were to pretty much suspend operations in China till then. 

[Habbaku]

Why would they be forced to suspend operations for an attack that's 5 years away?

[jimmy olsen]

Why would they be forced to suspend operations for an attack that's 5 years away?

Weren't they going to run out of oil within months?

[Habbaku]

I'll just provide the link rather than poorly paraphrase the argument made.  I'll try to find the portion again, though, since the whole segment is 1.5 hours long.

http://youtu.be/79KU997m9o4

[Habbaku]

The segment starts at 1:07:00 for the direct question that leads to it, but he touches upon it in the first half-hour as well.

[Tonitrus]

And then there's still that pesky attack on Pearl Harbor by Japan, which probably wouldn't depend on Barbarossa having taken place or not.

I'm not sure that's actually true.  I watched a panel of historians of WWII a few days ago.  One of the more esteemed members of the group made the case that the Japanese only made the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 because they were assured that Hitler was winning and would declare war shortly after.  Their original plan called for an attack on the USA in 1946, but the Germans assured them that Germany would stand against the USA alongside them in the event of an earlier attack.  Germany's initial successes in Barbarossa were key in convincing the Japanese that the Germans weren't going to lose the war and that it was best to jump onto the winning side as early as possible.

My point still stands....if there is no war with Russia at all, what is to stop Japan from attacking Pearl Harbor with promised German support? 

Surely a war between just Germany and Britain is far closer to "winning" than a war against both Britain and Russia.  And if you take it further, that Britain peace's out too, what inhibitions could Japan then possibly have?

[Habbaku]

I suspect that, without the war on the Soviets, the Japanese would be worried about things flaring up with the Soviets again like they had at Nomonhan.  Now, this is not to say that the Japanese are not insane enough to press on against the USA while also at war with China and without a war distracting the Soviets, but I think they would be at least somewhat more reticent.

[jimmy olsen]

Surely a war between just Germany and Britain is far closer to "winning" than a war against both Britain and Russia.  And if you take it further, that Britain peace's out too, what inhibitions could Japan then possibly have?

Well the Brits would be able to concentrate their whole strength against the Japanese, and why would Germany desire to restart a conflict with Britain now that they're preparing for a massive campaign against the USSR?

[Tonitrus]

Surely a war between just Germany and Britain is far closer to "winning" than a war against both Britain and Russia.  And if you take it further, that Britain peace's out too, what inhibitions could Japan then possibly have?

Well the Brits would be able to concentrate their whole strength against the Japanese, and why would Germany desire to restart a conflict with Britain now that they're preparing for a massive campaign against the USSR?

So Barbarossa get's pushed back to '42 or 43'?

- Germany invades a much better prepared USSR, lets say in May '42.
- Germany will still probably do well enough initially that Japan goes all-out in December '42.
- Britain comes back into the war now that the USSR and the USA are in it.
- WW2 turns out the same way it did originally, just maybe ending a year or two later.

[11B4V]

So Barbarossa get's pushed back to '42 or 43'?

- Germany invades a much better prepared USSR, lets say in May '42.

Debatable. It took the war for them to unfuck their leadership, oragnization, and doctrinal issues.

[Razgovory]

For Germany to really be able to win, they need one of two things.  A massive technological ace in the hole ie a nuclear bomb, or a new ally with a lot to bring to the table.  There are only two states in the world that could bring enough resources to the Axis win a war in the East: the UK and the US.  Neither are particularly interested in helping the Germans despite a great deal of antipathy toward the Soviets.  The UK is slightly more likely but they would need to either turn fascist at an early date or have Germany less aggressive while the Soviets are more aggressive.  If say Hitler died early and Goering became leader he may have moved more cautiously in rearmament and demands of territorial expansion.  Instead of starting a war perhaps building a system of encirclement around the Soviet Union and goad it into lashing out.  Such a scenario could result in Germany leading an international alliance against the SU that could include the UK or even the US eventually.  It would still be a nasty war but the combined might of Europe might be able to bring the Soviet Union down.  Germany, playing a central role in the war end up with a massive army and a prostrate Russia.  Germany armies already allied with states such as Poland and Romania might already find themselves occupying those countries.  The Germans may simply refuse to leave resulting in either satellite states across Eastern Europe or outright annexation.  Vast tracks of Russia would be in the same situation.  The result would be German subjugation of the East with the Western powers unable to really do anything about it.