[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

The Globe today ran an editorial which points out the bigger problem with the Duffy scandal in that it reveals the unrestrained power of the PMO, something which the Globe points out, began in the PET era and grew from there.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/ottawas-accountability-problems-start-at-the-top-in-the-pmo/article26041816/

A socialist party would not relinquish control on the power it gets.  We've seen how much of a democrat was Chavez, I don't expect much more from Thomas Mulcair and the NDP. 

yeah, alright you've lost me now

Look, Mulcair wants even more what the Liberals did, pan-Canadian programs in everything that does not concern them.  Except now the provinces have developped a certain resistance to this, it's not only Quebec vs Canada anymore.

To realize that kind of change, similar to how Harper wanted to transform Canada and make the Conservatives the default option, as were the Liberals for many years, he'll have to exert tight control over everything.  He already has tight control over his party, placing his people where it counts, just like the Conservatives attempted.  Once he's PM, Mulcair will replace the vacant Senate seats with NDP people close to him, so that he can pass his "reforms" (I don't know if reforms is the proper word, it usually indicates progress, not a step backward ) without too much hassle from the Senate.  He'll name a new GG without consulting anyone outside his office.  He doesn't care about bilingual judges at the Supreme Court and he certainly won't seek the Parliament's approval into naming people who he hopes won't challenge his views (didn't work that well for the Conservatives, did not stop them from trying).

[crazy canuck]

Democracy is the worst form of government except for all the others

[Grey Fox]

What we need in this country is real decentralization, toward the provinces.  This way, we avoid repeating a concentration of power in the hands of the PMO, since there's less power to concentrate in the first place.

This is the only sensible thing you said in 3 pages.

but we can't have that because god forbid anyone works with the evil people of Quebec.

[Josephus]

Forum Research poll shows 56 per cent of Canadians don't believe Harper is telling truth in Duffy scandal. Not sure if this will translate into anything come poll time. What's clear to me is that Harper is not going to gain any more support, that's  a given. What, as I've been saying all along, is really going to matter is how the anti-Harper vote gets split. Some recent polls show Trudeau gaining support which can't be good for Mulcair.

[crazy canuck]

That 56% stat is interesting as it suggests the Conservatives do have room to grow their support up to the majority level of about 40%.  That 56% is probably as bad as it will get in regard to the Duffy trial.

[Josephus]

Although that number was higher for people actually following the trial.

Forum found 68 per cent of respondents have been following the court proceedings with 32 per cent saying they have not.
Of those who are paying attention to the trial, 68 per cent believe Harper knew Wright gave Duffy the money with 21 per cent saying they feel he did not and 11 per cent unsure.

And

The poll suggests the Duffy trial is not helping the Conservatives' electoral prospects, with 44 per cent saying it is "very damaging" and 29 per cent saying it is "somewhat damaging."
That means 73 per cent view the issue as a potential liability.
In contrast, 15 per cent said it is "not very damaging," four per cent said it is "not damaging at all" and seven per cent didn't know.

[crazy canuck]

The stats regarding what the people watching think doesn't tell us much as there is a selection bias there.

Also I don't think the question about whether it is damaging tells us much about how that affects voter intentions. 

I still think that 56% stat is the most significant.  A witness testified his understanding was the PM knew and still 44% of respondents accept the PMs denial.  I think that is another data point that tells us this issue is not going to have much of an impact on the election.  People who where never going to vote Conservative don't believe but based on the polling numbers some non committed Conservative voters do believe the PM.

[viper37]

NDP Tax hike won't be enough (French)

As I said before, but with numbers.  Use Google translate, if need be.  Le Devoir is a left&sovereignist leaning newspaper.

Basically, Mulcair promises to raise the corporate tax, yet keep it substantially below the average it was during the Conservatives' mandates.  The average was 17.5%, it is now at 15%.  Not much room to increase.
Each increase of 1% would bring in 1billion$, according to the NDP's calculations (wich are likely over estimated).
That means at most 3 billion$ more in tax income per year, assuming he raises the tax rates by 2% in the first year.

Thing is, he promised a coast to coast daycare service, wich will swallow, at the very least, 5 billion$ a year.  Watch it, before it comes to a decade, this thing is gonna cost us 3x the estimated cost.
Aside that, he promised 36 million$ more in provincial health transfer.
The current predicted deficit is of 1 billion$, due to lower than expected oil revenues.

That means the tax hike for corporations will barely cover the current deficit, leaving nothing for his other promises.

Bottom line: Mulcair lies once more, to appeal to its anti-capitalist base.

[Josephus]

Nonsense. Politicians don't lie.

[viper37]

Nonsense. Politicians don't lie.

if it was Harper, you'd be moderately upset at him

[crazy canuck]

Despite an NDP lead in national polls the Globe is now projecting a 56% chance the Conservatives will win a majority.  The NDP are at only 39%.  Justin has dramatically increased his chances to 6%.

[Josephus]

Despite an NDP lead in national polls the Globe is now projecting a 56% chance the Conservatives will win a majority.  The NDP are at only 39%.  Justin has dramatically increased his chances to 6%.

Someone here's been saying that all along.

[crazy canuck]

Despite an NDP lead in national polls the Globe is now projecting a 56% chance the Conservatives will win a majority.  The NDP are at only 39%.  Justin has dramatically increased his chances to 6%.

Someone here's been saying that all along.

I was going to mention that 

[Josephus]

I think any poll before the last week is not going to mean anything. Toronto Star poll today shows NDP with 40 per cent support and in a position to form a majority.

I still think it's all going to come down to where the NDP and Liberals get their votes. In ridings where they split, the Cons will take those ridings pushing them towards a majority. We'll see.

[viper37]

I guess it's the Forum Research poll?
New poll
NPD: 40%
Cons: 23%
Libs: 30%

Ontario:
NDP: 36%
LPC: 33%
Cons: 26%

It seems I'll be forced to vote Conservative again.