[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Monoriu]

Any evidence for the proposition that commodity prices have ever been or will ever be stable?

Josephus - 

Nobody can reliably predict commodity prices in the future.  But if government revenues are volatile, then expediture should be conservative.  It is easy to spend more, but difficult to cut back (see exhibit Greece).  A nation's finances are so important that they should be able to withstand the worst financial storms. 

[crazy canuck]

Any evidence for the proposition that commodity prices have ever been or will ever be stable?

Not at all, but by saying there should be deficit spending to "weather the drop in commodity prices" implies that you think they will normally be much higher.

No.  I think that other parts of the economy need to be developed to diversify away from fossil fuels. It is easier to convince people of that fact when they are more aware of the instability in commodity prices.  And we are not going to accomplish that without leadership at the Federal level.

[crazy canuck]

Any evidence for the proposition that commodity prices have ever been or will ever be stable?

Josephus - 

Nobody can reliably predict commodity prices in the future.  But if government revenues are volatile, then expediture should be conservative.  It is easy to spend more, but difficult to cut back (see exhibit Greece).  A nation's finances are so important that they should be able to withstand the worst financial storms.

The lesson Canada can learn from the Greek example is that poorly timed austerity measures are the worst possible option.

[Monoriu]

The lesson Canada can learn from the Greek example is that poorly timed austerity measures are the worst possible option.

I think the lesson is don't spend too much, don't set up crazy pension systems, don't borrow too much, and above all don't put yourself in a position that you need to beg for money from others.  And don't hold referendums that do nothing but piss off your creditors. 

[Grey Fox]

Ok, Canada not doing any of that.

[Monoriu]

Ok, Canada not doing any of that.

I distinctly remember that when I was in Canada, the federal deficits and debt levels were shocking. 

[Grey Fox]

To you, you are no beacon of economic sense.

[Monoriu]

To you, you are no beacon of economic sense.

This isn't about economics.  This is about not needing to ask for help.  It isn't far-fetched.  Spain, Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Argentina, Iceland all failed the test.

[crazy canuck]

The lesson Canada can learn from the Greek example is that poorly timed austerity measures are the worst possible option.

I think the lesson is don't spend too much, don't set up crazy pension systems, don't borrow too much, and above all don't put yourself in a position that you need to beg for money from others.  And don't hold referendums that do nothing but piss off your creditors.

That would be a good lesson for a country that is at some risk of doing any of that.  In Canada the relevant lesson relates to poorly timed austerity.

[Valmy]

That would be a good lesson for a country that is at some risk of doing any of that.  In Canada the relevant lesson relates to poorly timed austerity.

What is the non-poor time for austerity?

[Monoriu]

That would be a good lesson for a country that is at some risk of doing any of that.  In Canada the relevant lesson relates to poorly timed austerity.

The downside of poorly timed austerity is slower economic growth.

The downside of spending too much is the IMF, the US, or China dictating terms that you need to enact laws within 48 hours to cut national pensions by half, raise GST, extend shop opening hours, transfer public assets to a fund headquartered in Beijing, and agree that your future budgets be vetted by a board comprising representatives from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, or face economic ruin

[Grey Fox]

 

[Valmy]

It is true. Austerity makes you free.

[viper37]

There's nothing wrong with their plan, no changes are needed.

Yep, you and BB are well inside the group that think that.  As I said, the problem the Conservatives face is I am not sure how much they can grow their vote holding that position.

I thought Vipes was being sarcastic ... either you have been wooshed, or I have been. 

I was sarcastic

[Valmy]

He has been unhappy with the conservativeness of the Conservatives for awhile now.