[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Grey Fox]

To the Conservative government our closest ally is not the USA but Israel.

[crazy canuck]

The Globe has done its weekly update of the chance each party might win.  The Conservatives are +1 at 50% the NDP are -3 at 49% and the Libs made a dramatic move up to 3%

[Josephus]

What I been saying all along

[crazy canuck]

What I been saying all along

I am not sure how many Canadians caught the comments by the Bank of Canada yesterday but the translation from Bankese to English was a call for more government spending to stimulate the economy.  This is the worst possible news for the Conservatives who seem to be stuck on the strategy of proclaiming a balanced budget despite the fact that events are overtaking them.  I think they are going to have to revise their strategy from one of proclaiming a job done to one which sets out a strategy for dealing with the national economic slowdown.  It will be interesting to see how they react.

It will also be an interesting test for the NDP.  Will these more difficult economic times bring out the radical wing of the party.  It is easy to show the face of moderation in good times.  It is the trying times that are the most telling.  If the NDP government in Alberta is a measure of how the Federal NDP will react I think they will do fairly well.  But I don't have a good feel for the dynamics within the Federal party and so I will watch as this unfolds with great interest.

[Barrister]

What I been saying all along

I am not sure how many Canadians caught the comments by the Bank of Canada yesterday but the translation from Bankese to English was a call for more government spending to stimulate the economy.  This is the worst possible news for the Conservatives who seem to be stuck on the strategy of proclaiming a balanced budget despite the fact that events are overtaking them.  I think they are going to have to revise their strategy from one of proclaiming a job done to one which sets out a strategy for dealing with the national economic slowdown.  It will be interesting to see how they react.

It will also be an interesting test for the NDP.  Will these more difficult economic times bring out the radical wing of the party.  It is easy to show the face of moderation in good times.  It is the trying times that are the most telling.  If the NDP government in Alberta is a measure of how the Federal NDP will react I think they will do fairly well.  But I don't have a good feel for the dynamics within the Federal party and so I will watch as this unfolds with great interest.

Alberta NDP haven't even brought down a budget yet.  Impossible to give them any grade as of yet.  I think the tea leaves show them in a negative light, but that's all it is so far.

I think the Conservatives reaction will be the one they wanted to bring out in 2008 - rather than massive deficit spending, keep the finances dry and await a natural recovery.  We blew our wad in 2008, and the national finances will not easily withstand another round of massive deficit spending.

[crazy canuck]

What I been saying all along

I am not sure how many Canadians caught the comments by the Bank of Canada yesterday but the translation from Bankese to English was a call for more government spending to stimulate the economy.  This is the worst possible news for the Conservatives who seem to be stuck on the strategy of proclaiming a balanced budget despite the fact that events are overtaking them.  I think they are going to have to revise their strategy from one of proclaiming a job done to one which sets out a strategy for dealing with the national economic slowdown.  It will be interesting to see how they react.

It will also be an interesting test for the NDP.  Will these more difficult economic times bring out the radical wing of the party.  It is easy to show the face of moderation in good times.  It is the trying times that are the most telling.  If the NDP government in Alberta is a measure of how the Federal NDP will react I think they will do fairly well.  But I don't have a good feel for the dynamics within the Federal party and so I will watch as this unfolds with great interest.

Alberta NDP haven't even brought down a budget yet.  Impossible to give them any grade as of yet.  I think the tea leaves show them in a negative light, but that's all it is so far.

I think the Conservatives reaction will be the one they wanted to bring out in 2008 - rather than massive deficit spending, keep the finances dry and await a natural recovery.  We blew our wad in 2008, and the national finances will not easily withstand another round of massive deficit spending.

We will agree to disagree on the Alberta issue.  I have been impressed with their poise in a very difficult situation.  I have also been impressed with the complete absence of ideological rhetoric.  Its a refreshing change.

I think you are right about how the Conservatives will react and if they lose the election that will be one of the reasons why.  I think only the Conservative core voters will agree that the national finances cannot withstand more deficit spending to weather the drop in commodity prices.   

[crazy canuck]

More bad news for the Conservatives.

Probability that NDP and Liberals will control a majority of seats together: 97.2 per cent.

The probability that the New Democrats and Liberals together will win a majority of the seats is incredibly high, estimated at just over 97 per cent. In most parliamentary systems around the world, this result would have a good shot of ending in a coalition government. However, in recent years, even broaching the topic of forming a coalition in Canada has seemed politically dangerous.

In an anti-coalition climate, if the Conservatives have the most seats, and the margin is reasonably large between first and second, you'd have to expect the current government to try to hold on to power in a minority parliament. Would the acceptability of coalitions to Canadians shift if the Conservatives won the most seats, but only by a razor-thin margin? A parliament with three parties nearly tied at 110 seats each might change some minds.

[viper37]

There's nothing wrong with their plan, no changes are needed. 

[crazy canuck]

There's nothing wrong with their plan, no changes are needed.

Yep, you and BB are well inside the group that think that.  As I said, the problem the Conservatives face is I am not sure how much they can grow their vote holding that position.

[Malthus]

There's nothing wrong with their plan, no changes are needed.

Yep, you and BB are well inside the group that think that.  As I said, the problem the Conservatives face is I am not sure how much they can grow their vote holding that position.

I thought Vipes was being sarcastic ... either you have been wooshed, or I have been. 

[crazy canuck]

There's nothing wrong with their plan, no changes are needed.

Yep, you and BB are well inside the group that think that.  As I said, the problem the Conservatives face is I am not sure how much they can grow their vote holding that position.

I thought Vipes was being sarcastic ... either you have been wooshed, or I have been. 

I think I was. 

[Ancient Demon]

I think only the Conservative core voters will agree that the national finances cannot withstand more deficit spending to weather the drop in commodity prices.   

Lower commodity prices could be the new normal, especially if China keeps slowing down. Does this mean Canada should have large deficits forever?

[Josephus]

Here's what will happen come election time.

The Conservatives win....but a minority.

Liberals and NDP hold coalition meetings.

The day before they plan on visiting the Gov. Gen to announce they want to form a government, Harper sends Gov. Gen Johnston on a "pre-arranged" tour of Iceland.

As the Liberals and NDP wait for his unannounced return, a fire suddenly and mysteriously burns down the rei Parilaiment Building.

Harper announces a state of emergency he blames on radical Muslims alligned with ISIS elements. As such he "prorogues" Parliament until the emergency crisis is over. He doesn't say when.

The Toronto Maples Leafs win the cup in 2025, and Harper is still prime minister without parliament, the "Special One" he calls himself.

Mr. Johnston hasn't been heard from since.

[crazy canuck]

I think only the Conservative core voters will agree that the national finances cannot withstand more deficit spending to weather the drop in commodity prices.   

Lower commodity prices could be the new normal, especially if China keeps slowing down. Does this mean Canada should have large deficits forever?

Any evidence for the proposition that commodity prices have ever been or will ever be stable?

Josephus - 

[Ancient Demon]

Any evidence for the proposition that commodity prices have ever been or will ever be stable?

Not at all, but by saying there should be deficit spending to "weather the drop in commodity prices" implies that you think they will normally be much higher.