[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

this kim Campbell talk brought up the memory of when I found out kim wasn't her real name. All politicians lie

[Sheilbh]

<snip>

Interesting - thanks. Actually more similarities than the polling would indicate on its own.

So two observations - one which might give Sunak's crew some despair, and one to give some hope.

1. Despite the post-leadership bump I don't think the PCs were ever going to win that election.  Liberals had been consistently in the 40% range, which is majority territory.

Yeah I think the Tories have been going to lose this election since Partygate - the rest, to an extent, is noise. Of course that's tough for a politician to accept.

I would say in the recent debates Sunak has looked tired and beaten - and apparently you have seen pity starting to emerge in focus groups, particularly in traditional Tory seats. Lots of "very decent man doing his best, but just not up to it".

2. You'll notice though that if the PCs had stayed at the 20% level it was going to be bad, but not an annihilation.  What killed them was the last minute surge in support for Reform / BQ.  Those parties were knew so I think in part it took the election campaign for people to get comfortable voting for those parties.  But even then at the end of the election it was BQ 54 seats, Reform 52 seats, and the PCs 2 seats - despite the fact they all polled roughly at the same level.  This is where FPTP killed the PCs - they had a thin level of support across the country, while Western-focused Reform (and Quebec-focused BQ) could rack up the wins.  (and I can mention that Atlantic Canada was one of the strongest areas for Liberals anyways, and that in Ontario while Reform was western-focused they did run candidates in Ontario and pulled enough support for Liberals to win the vote splits).

So I think there's two sides here which are similar and point in slightly different directions.

The big regional shock in British politics was 2015 when Scottish Labour went from 41 seats to 1 and the SNP from 6 to 56. That was huge. Not least because Scottish Labour actually really hit above their weight - an awful lot of very prominent former and current frontbenchers were lost in that wave (that was, in part, their problem: the best Scottish Labour politicians wanted to be MPs with UK frontbench careers, the SNP focused on Scottish politics). But it also structured a lot of analysis because the assumption was Labour now couldn't rely on a solid 40-50 seats in Scotland - at the same time Labour started the process of developing a very inefficient vote in England where they lost a lot of swing seats but started really gaining votes in already Labour areas. Both of those assumptions are now challenged in this election. Scottish Labour (and some of those prominent frontbenchers) are definitely back - and Labour's vote in England is now a lot more efficient.

But that's also Reform's problem as you say. We have FPTP, they don't really have a regional base and have a really inefficient vote. Historically Farage's parties have also focused on the wrong seats which didn't help. And I've said before but Farage is our most successful European politician - he's very good at a national vote share PR style campaign, but not at bedding into a region building an activist base then councillors then MPs, like the Lib Dems do. They might cost seats but I think it'd be very difficult for them to actually win many (I also think they might be plateauing/on the way down now).

[Valmy]

this kim Campbell talk brought up the memory of when I found out kim wasn't her real name. All politicians lie

Avril Campbell just doesn't have that alliteration going for it.

[Josephus]

this kim Campbell talk brought up the memory of when I found out kim wasn't her real name. All politicians lie

Didn't she do a publicity photo posing (apparently) naked behind a judge's gown?

[crazy canuck]

this kim Campbell talk brought up the memory of when I found out kim wasn't her real name. All politicians lie

Didn't she do a publicity photo posing (apparently) naked behind a judge's gown?

Her QC robes

[Barrister]

this kim Campbell talk brought up the memory of when I found out kim wasn't her real name. All politicians lie

Didn't she do a publicity photo posing (apparently) naked behind a judge's gown?

Very famous photo.  Don't know if she was naked or not but it appeared that way.

[Barrister]

Returning to Alberta politics...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/smith-dental-plan-ottawa-opt-out-1.7247203

Alberta opts out of the Canada Dental Care Plan.

I will admit - no idea how this plays out.

There are several knocks to be made against the dental program.  Because of the potentially huge costs it's pretty limited.  Right now it's limited to young children and seniors, with plans to expand it to all children plus adults with disabilities.  The problem is that many/most people do already have dental coverage and at least in Alberta there was already an existing plan to cover low-income people.  Alberta says "just please give us the money so we can add it to our existing program".

On the other hand - I know dental care is important.  You can take a minor problem, add a few years of neglect, and turn it into a huge problem.  Plus even pretty basic dental care like extractions can be expensive.  So this can be huge to some people.

By the way (and I've said this before) - this was one of the NDP's key demands for its "confidence and supply" deal with the Liberals.  I think the NDP gets zero benefit from doing this.  To the extent people give thanks it will be to the Liberals who passed it.

I am curious exactly how much money this means Alberta is foregoing.  Article says it's a $13 billion program - but is that over one year or multiple years?  And how much of it does Alberta receive?

[PRC]

By the way (and I've said this before) - this was one of the NDP's key demands for its "confidence and supply" deal with the Liberals.  I think the NDP gets zero benefit from doing this.  To the extent people give thanks it will be to the Liberals who passed it.

I've said this of the NDP before... they've been the most effective political party in Canada despite never having power. 

I don't know how you can say they get zero benefit from this... they've served the people of Canada yet again and proven they care more about seeing policies that benefit Canadians than who gets the credit for it.

[Jacob]

A new challenger appears...

Former MP considering bid to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader after party's byelection defeat
No decision to step down by Trudeau, but one more name waiting in the wings should that happen: Frank Baylis

Only a day after Conservatives won a federal byelection in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, ending a race that was largely viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership at the head of the governing party, a new potential contender says he is considering a bid to replace him.

Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis confirmed to CBC News he has been approached for a leadership run.

"A number of people are asking me to think about this, and I'm taking their request seriously," Baylis said in an interview.

"It's been a long time, there's been a demand, there's been an interest in having a more centrist viewpoint, a more fiscally responsible approach, and with my background in business, many people have approached me and talked to me about this."

Baylis represented Pierrefonds-Dollard, another riding considered one of the safest in the country for the Liberals, on Montreal's West Island, from 2015 to 2019. He stepped down that year.

He is the executive chairperson of Baylis Medical Tech, a company he sold to a larger American firm, Boston Scientific, for $1.75 billion US in 2022.

He insisted he has made no firm decision, but has been watching the fallout from the byelection result closely.

"This was a very, very decisive defeat, from a [previous] very strong victory," Baylis said, adding he understood the frustration of Liberal MPs who are concerned about their chances at reelection. 

"Prime Minister Trudeau will decide what he wants to do if and when he decides to do that, that's his prerogative," Baylis said.

He added only then would he decide his own next steps.

On Tuesday, Trudeau addressed the byelection results but gave no indication he was thinking of stepping down.

"I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel," he said.

Two Liberal MPs, speaking to CBC News on the condition they not be named, said they have heard of Baylis considering a leadership run.

"This has been an open secret," said one MP, who said Baylis had been one of the best new Liberal parliamentarians for the term he was elected to public office.

The MP said Baylis's name has floated around for years, though also added "at a time like this, I don't think he has the necessary experience."

Another Liberal MP said they personally advised Baylis to seriously start thinking about mounting a national campaign.

"[Baylis] was hoping he had about two years left," this MP said. "His plan was to ramp it up over time and not be ready just now."

Nobody has publicly thrown their hat into the ring with definite plans to replace Trudeau, though former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has not ruled it out, and the Globe and Mail has reported Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc was eyeing the position.

Baylis a staunch opponent of Quebec secularism law

Though he has stayed largely out of the public eye after leaving office, Baylis has been a staunch opponent of Bill 21, the controversial Quebec legislation that bars public sector workers in positions of authority from wearing overt religious symbols such as hijabs or yarmulkes at their jobs, for the sake of secularism.

He is the co-president of Non à la Loi 21 (No to Law 21), one of many organizations hoping to fight the legislation at the Supreme Court of Canada.

The law remains popular in Quebec, a province that is key to the Liberal Party's fortunes in federal elections. However, Baylis said he was not concerned about openly challenging its discriminatory nature.

"Too many times I see, in all politics, people are making this kind of political calculation: what will get me votes versus what's the right thing to do," he said, adding he is convinced most Quebecers would side against the law if they understood its negative societal impacts.

He said his mother, Gloria Baylis, a Black woman from Barbados, made history as the first person to win a racial discrimination lawsuit against an employer in Canada in 1965.

Baylis faced controversy shortly after he stepped down from office.

In December 2020, he testified before a Parliamentary Committee about his company Baylis Medical Tech taking part in a consortium that received $237 million from the federal government to procure 10,000 ventilators during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He defended the contract, saying the ventilators the company helped build have since been in demand in other countries, such as Pakistan, India and Ukraine.

"It's about having Canadian industry step up when there's a crisis," he said.

He said he would not be surprised if political opponents try to attack him over the procurement. "That's OK. I'm a big boy, this is politics, I understand that," he said.

But he insisted he would  tell Canadians the truth about the ventilators, pointing to an award he received from an NGO for donating medical equipment to Ukraine.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frank-baylis-liberal-leadership-replace-justin-trudeau-1.7246713

[Jacob]

By the way (and I've said this before) - this was one of the NDP's key demands for its "confidence and supply" deal with the Liberals.  I think the NDP gets zero benefit from doing this.  To the extent people give thanks it will be to the Liberals who passed it.

I've said this of the NDP before... they've been the most effective political party in Canada despite never having power. 

I don't know how you can say they get zero benefit from this... they've served the people of Canada yet again and proven they care more about seeing policies that benefit Canadians than who gets the credit for it.

That's very positive take

[Barrister]

By the way (and I've said this before) - this was one of the NDP's key demands for its "confidence and supply" deal with the Liberals.  I think the NDP gets zero benefit from doing this.  To the extent people give thanks it will be to the Liberals who passed it.

I've said this of the NDP before... they've been the most effective political party in Canada despite never having power. 

I don't know how you can say they get zero benefit from this... they've served the people of Canada yet again and proven they care more about seeing policies that benefit Canadians than who gets the credit for it.

I mean 100% electoral benefit.

"Not caring who gets credit for a thing" is a very noble sentiment, and I agree it can help move mountains.  But it won't help a single NDP candidate get elected.

[crazy canuck]

A new challenger appears...

Former MP considering bid to replace Trudeau as Liberal leader after party's byelection defeat
No decision to step down by Trudeau, but one more name waiting in the wings should that happen: Frank Baylis

Only a day after Conservatives won a federal byelection in the longtime Liberal stronghold of Toronto-St. Paul's, ending a race that was largely viewed as a referendum on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's leadership at the head of the governing party, a new potential contender says he is considering a bid to replace him.

Former Liberal MP Frank Baylis confirmed to CBC News he has been approached for a leadership run.

"A number of people are asking me to think about this, and I'm taking their request seriously," Baylis said in an interview.

"It's been a long time, there's been a demand, there's been an interest in having a more centrist viewpoint, a more fiscally responsible approach, and with my background in business, many people have approached me and talked to me about this."

Baylis represented Pierrefonds-Dollard, another riding considered one of the safest in the country for the Liberals, on Montreal's West Island, from 2015 to 2019. He stepped down that year.

He is the executive chairperson of Baylis Medical Tech, a company he sold to a larger American firm, Boston Scientific, for $1.75 billion US in 2022.

He insisted he has made no firm decision, but has been watching the fallout from the byelection result closely.

"This was a very, very decisive defeat, from a [previous] very strong victory," Baylis said, adding he understood the frustration of Liberal MPs who are concerned about their chances at reelection. 

"Prime Minister Trudeau will decide what he wants to do if and when he decides to do that, that's his prerogative," Baylis said.

He added only then would he decide his own next steps.

On Tuesday, Trudeau addressed the byelection results but gave no indication he was thinking of stepping down.

"I and my entire team have much more hard work to do to deliver tangible, real progress that Canadians can see and feel," he said.

Two Liberal MPs, speaking to CBC News on the condition they not be named, said they have heard of Baylis considering a leadership run.

"This has been an open secret," said one MP, who said Baylis had been one of the best new Liberal parliamentarians for the term he was elected to public office.

The MP said Baylis's name has floated around for years, though also added "at a time like this, I don't think he has the necessary experience."

Another Liberal MP said they personally advised Baylis to seriously start thinking about mounting a national campaign.

"[Baylis] was hoping he had about two years left," this MP said. "His plan was to ramp it up over time and not be ready just now."

Nobody has publicly thrown their hat into the ring with definite plans to replace Trudeau, though former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney has not ruled it out, and the Globe and Mail has reported Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc was eyeing the position.

Baylis a staunch opponent of Quebec secularism law

Though he has stayed largely out of the public eye after leaving office, Baylis has been a staunch opponent of Bill 21, the controversial Quebec legislation that bars public sector workers in positions of authority from wearing overt religious symbols such as hijabs or yarmulkes at their jobs, for the sake of secularism.

He is the co-president of Non à la Loi 21 (No to Law 21), one of many organizations hoping to fight the legislation at the Supreme Court of Canada.

The law remains popular in Quebec, a province that is key to the Liberal Party's fortunes in federal elections. However, Baylis said he was not concerned about openly challenging its discriminatory nature.

"Too many times I see, in all politics, people are making this kind of political calculation: what will get me votes versus what's the right thing to do," he said, adding he is convinced most Quebecers would side against the law if they understood its negative societal impacts.

He said his mother, Gloria Baylis, a Black woman from Barbados, made history as the first person to win a racial discrimination lawsuit against an employer in Canada in 1965.

Baylis faced controversy shortly after he stepped down from office.

In December 2020, he testified before a Parliamentary Committee about his company Baylis Medical Tech taking part in a consortium that received $237 million from the federal government to procure 10,000 ventilators during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

He defended the contract, saying the ventilators the company helped build have since been in demand in other countries, such as Pakistan, India and Ukraine.

"It's about having Canadian industry step up when there's a crisis," he said.

He said he would not be surprised if political opponents try to attack him over the procurement. "That's OK. I'm a big boy, this is politics, I understand that," he said.

But he insisted he would  tell Canadians the truth about the ventilators, pointing to an award he received from an NGO for donating medical equipment to Ukraine.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frank-baylis-liberal-leadership-replace-justin-trudeau-1.7246713

I gave the same link this morning

[Barrister]

A new challenger appears...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/frank-baylis-liberal-leadership-replace-justin-trudeau-1.7246713

OK, so I can see this guy being a stalking horse to put pressure on Trudeau.

But no chance he's going to be our next Prime Minister.  He's a former billionaire back-bench MP who holds very unpopular opinions in his home province of Quebec (despite the fact I agree with him).  He is subject to criticism about receiving nine-figure Covid payments from the government that were never used in this country (again - whether justified or not).

Interestingly - his father is from the UK, his mother from Barbados - making him half black.  Which probably explains his position on Bill-21 if nothing else.

[viper37]

BB is in extreme denial by claiming that Mark Carney and Freeland have no public profile.

But I think it's now too late for anyone to take over from Trudeau.  it could be the most amazing person that everybody knows but it's too late to clean house in the Liberal party and remove the rot that has occurred under Trudeau.  The voters would have no confidence that they're not just electing the same group of inept people.

Freeland is Vice-PM and Minister of Finance.  She owns whatever Trudeau is selling.

Mark Carney can sell himself, but not in one year.  He's way too unknown in the general public.  We are very politicized here, so BB may not be too far off the truth.  To the common people, if you're not a tv/social media star, you are an unknown quantity.  He's not in active politics, he's not in media, so he's unknown.

Being smart isn't enough to win in politics.

[crazy canuck]

BB is in extreme denial by claiming that Mark Carney and Freeland have no public profile.

But I think it's now too late for anyone to take over from Trudeau.  it could be the most amazing person that everybody knows but it's too late to clean house in the Liberal party and remove the rot that has occurred under Trudeau.  The voters would have no confidence that they're not just electing the same group of inept people.

Freeland is Vice-PM and Minister of Finance.  She owns whatever Trudeau is selling.

Mark Carney can sell himself, but not in one year.  He's way too unknown in the general public.  We are very politicized here, so BB may not be too far off the truth.  To the common people, if you're not a tv/social media star, you are an unknown quantity.  He's not in active politics, he's not in media, so he's unknown.

Being smart isn't enough to win in politics.

I agree.

It's just a bit laughable that BB claimed they didn't have public profile.