[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

So, Ottawa is in the verge of a civil confrontation since their police force has totally abandoned the idea to do anything about the freedumb terrorists.

At least from what I read on the socials.

Here's a suggestion: convince police officers that the protesters are actually students. This should spur them into action.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking.  Large numbers of Ontario police showed up at Kingston, very heavily armed, for Homecoming in anticipation of street parties.  I wonder where all those brave officers are now?

[Sheilbh]

... or if the Liberals need them to support a minority government

Yeah - although it sounds like that's basically what's happening anyway.

For sure. And that, then would give room for the NDP to become a more viable left alternative. But that's all pretty speculative right now.

The point that PRC made - and that I agree with - is that the NDP has been very effective at enacting their agenda and affecting the polity and the lives of Canadians. If that is the measure of effectiveness for a political party, then they're doing quite well.

If it's about positioning themselves to win a majority then maybe not, but it's hard to see a promising road map there given the realities of Canadian politics.

That's fair. What I said is speculative but from the rest of this it seems pretty likely that the Conservatives are about to move pretty strongly to the right which creates an opportunity for the Liberals to pick up more support in the centre right.

If you're NDP you might have helped shape policy (but it will always be your policy as interpreted by a liberal, centrist party - and implementation matters), but you might not be in a great position to now start drawing sharp division lines if the Liberals starting blobbing all over the centre. Basically I'm not sure Malthus is right that it would be wrong for them to turn a bit more left populist.

I don't know if that's how it's framed in the Canadian public mind. Certainly I'm not seeing it. If the Liberals nick all the good NDP policies and implement them that's good as far as I'm concerned - that means good policies are being implemented.

There are many ways things could shape, but if we imagine a scenario where the Libs keep nicking NDP policies and there's not that much daylight between the two parties, while simultaneously the Conservatives fracture and get involved in far-right ideological civil war that is appetizing to Canadians, and the Liberals eventually get tired and bog down in some corruption scandal with legs...

In that case, it's not impossible that voters will go "I'm done with the Libs for now... the Conservatives are awful... and the NDP is slighly more left liberals with a decent leader..." leading to an NDP victory.

Not super likely, no. And it requires the Consevatives to not get their shit together. But it's not entirely implausible either.

And in the meantime, the NDP is keeping the Libs further on the left than the right.

Absolutely and my point isn't really about general Canadian public opinion - but opinion on the left.

You're right, your scenario isn't entirely implausible - I think most parties that govern for a while (I think especially parties of power like the Liberals) tend to end with corruption scandals/general exhaustion. So that seems a pretty real risk - and there's been at least a couple of scandals that made the news here that seem a little suspicious although it's probably more smoke than fire. Maybe it leads toa victory from a party that's seen as similar but a little to the left - I think there's a risk that you end up with a "time for a change" election and you're not seen as a change but more of the same.

Edit: And it seems wierd that it's tolerated on the left as opposed to trying to form a viable, clear alternative. Especially (and I know that in part they did really well in Quebec then) after you had a breakthrough and the party you replaced briefly resurged - I feel like it'd be a very bad idea to let them hug you too closely.

[Jacob]

All valid points Sheilbh.

[Jacob]

Another Conservative MP endorsing the FluKluxClan

A few of our SK Caucus members went to show our appreciation for the hardworking, patriotic truckers who have kept our supply chains healthy & grocery shelves stocked for the past two years. It's great to see Canadians championing freedom on Parliament Hill. #freedomconvoy22

[crazy canuck]

That is exactly why, of course.

That doesn't change the fact that the NDP is accomplishing things, and voting for them is having a direct influence on the governance of the country.

Although it only works if the Liberals are in office/until the Liberals see them as a threat.

I could be wrong but from BBoy's posts () I seem to remember that last time the right split the centre-right wing were very small/weak. I feel like if there was a similar split or the right turned quite radical the best move for Liberals would be to try and hoover up as much of the centre-right as they could to really position the rest as being on the radical right and to absolutely dominate as much of the centre as they can.

That is one way of doing politics, yes, but not the only one.

Sure - but at some point I'd imagine it would frustrate the left if they kept seeing ideas nicked and then watered down by a more centrist/liberal government. You can influence a party of power like Liberals but that may lead to only strengthening/entrenching their position.

You need to take BB's recollection of those events with a grain of salt.  He became politically active when the Reform party formed and definitely drank the Manning cool aid.  His politics are still very much influenced by those Reform days.  The centre-right was and is not small nor weak.  They are in fact the dominant part of the Conservatives outside the prairie provinces.  However, Conservatives need those prairie provinces to win a federal election - that is the home of the right wing of the party and was home base for the Reform party.  For that reason the extreme right of the party has always had a significant voice within the party.  And really what drove me and many other non social conservatives out.

The Conservative party is once again engaging in an internal civil war.  It is likely that given the influence of the extreme right, the Conservatives will not be able to select a leader (who necessarily needs to appeal to the rabid right) who can then go on to win a federal election.

[crazy canuck]

Students, indigenous, BLM, general left leaning protests. Anything that isn't angry white 40 something men

I hope the left learns something and we start protesting by using trucks.

Such institutional violence against peaceful, non threatening, non disturbing protesters :(We truly live in a fascist state https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CW8kgvPW3CU
Vandalism only happens during right-wing protests.  If only these guys would take cue from the left on how to organize their protests in an orderly manner https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7fn1-F9xrY

Viper, if these protestors were non white folks protesting for something other than a rabid right cause the Conservatives would be all over the government to clear the streets and enforce the law.

They are in fact breaking the law when they block streets like this for days...

[Jacob]

Yeah, I think the current Conservative strategy is to elect a radical right/ social conservative leader that keeps the Prairies happy and hope that the Libs fuck up enough - and that the visceral Trudeau hate they feel spreads more widely - that Canadians vote Conservative out of anti-Liberal revulsion, sweeping them into power.

We'll see how that works out for them.

[crazy canuck]

... or if the Liberals need them to support a minority government

Yeah - although it sounds like that's basically what's happening anyway.

For sure. And that, then would give room for the NDP to become a more viable left alternative. But that's all pretty speculative right now.

The point that PRC made - and that I agree with - is that the NDP has been very effective at enacting their agenda and affecting the polity and the lives of Canadians. If that is the measure of effectiveness for a political party, then they're doing quite well.

If it's about positioning themselves to win a majority then maybe not, but it's hard to see a promising road map there given the realities of Canadian politics.

That's fair. What I said is speculative but from the rest of this it seems pretty likely that the Conservatives are about to move pretty strongly to the right which creates an opportunity for the Liberals to pick up more support in the centre right.

If you're NDP you might have helped shape policy (but it will always be your policy as interpreted by a liberal, centrist party - and implementation matters), but you might not be in a great position to now start drawing sharp division lines if the Liberals starting blobbing all over the centre. Basically I'm not sure Malthus is right that it would be wrong for them to turn a bit more left populist.

I don't know if that's how it's framed in the Canadian public mind. Certainly I'm not seeing it. If the Liberals nick all the good NDP policies and implement them that's good as far as I'm concerned - that means good policies are being implemented.

There are many ways things could shape, but if we imagine a scenario where the Libs keep nicking NDP policies and there's not that much daylight between the two parties, while simultaneously the Conservatives fracture and get involved in far-right ideological civil war that is appetizing to Canadians, and the Liberals eventually get tired and bog down in some corruption scandal with legs...

In that case, it's not impossible that voters will go "I'm done with the Libs for now... the Conservatives are awful... and the NDP is slighly more left liberals with a decent leader..." leading to an NDP victory.

Not super likely, no. And it requires the Consevatives to not get their shit together. But it's not entirely implausible either.

And in the meantime, the NDP is keeping the Libs further on the left than the right.

Absolutely and my point isn't really about general Canadian public opinion - but opinion on the left.

You're right, your scenario isn't entirely implausible - I think most parties that govern for a while (I think especially parties of power like the Liberals) tend to end with corruption scandals/general exhaustion. So that seems a pretty real risk - and there's been at least a couple of scandals that made the news here that seem a little suspicious although it's probably more smoke than fire. Maybe it leads toa victory from a party that's seen as similar but a little to the left - I think there's a risk that you end up with a "time for a change" election and you're not seen as a change but more of the same.

Edit: And it seems wierd that it's tolerated on the left as opposed to trying to form a viable, clear alternative. Especially (and I know that in part they did really well in Quebec then) after you had a breakthrough and the party you replaced briefly resurged - I feel like it'd be a very bad idea to let them hug you too closely.

Some further historical context.  Trudeau won his first election by moving to the left of the NDP.  The NDP would have formed government but for that.  The NDP were way ahead in the polls at the start of the election and the Liberals were not even on the radar.  There is a lot to the thought that Trudeau was actually appointed leader as a sacrificial lamb and then the real contenders would compete for the leadership after the expected electoral debacle.  The NDP made the calculation, wrongly, that they had to appear to be fiscally conservative to maintain that lead and win.  The Liberals ate their lunch and the rest is history.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, I think the current Conservative strategy is to elect a radical right/ social conservative leader that keeps the Prairies happy and hope that the Libs fuck up enough - and that the visceral Trudeau hate they feel spreads more widely - that Canadians vote Conservative out of anti-Liberal revulsion, sweeping them into power.

We'll see how that works out for them.

Agreed.  And that is a very scary scenario if it works out for them.

[Malthus]

So, Ottawa is in the verge of a civil confrontation since their police force has totally abandoned the idea to do anything about the freedumb terrorists.

At least from what I read on the socials.

Here's a suggestion: convince police officers that the protesters are actually students. This should spur them into action.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking.  Large numbers of Ontario police showed up at Kingston, very heavily armed, for Homecoming in anticipation of street parties.  I wonder where all those brave officers are now?

Serious question: to what extent is the level of police response to large scale events up to the police, and to what extent is it up to the politicians? Also, what level of politicians?

In this case, the protestors are currently causing havoc in the city of Ottawa - would a response be up to the local cops, the municipal authorities, the provincial cops, provincial authorities, or the feds? Could the PM basically tell the mayor of Ottawa to clear the streets?

I have literally no idea how this actually works in practice.

[Jacob]

Here we have the FluKluxClan honking in front of an elementary school: https://twitter.com/i/status/1489006222271557638

[Jacob]

Not that I think anyone here is unclear about this, but still:

[Sheilbh]

Some further historical context.  Trudeau won his first election by moving to the left of the NDP.  The NDP would have formed government but for that.  The NDP were way ahead in the polls at the start of the election and the Liberals were not even on the radar.  There is a lot to the thought that Trudeau was actually appointed leader as a sacrificial lamb and then the real contenders would compete for the leadership after the expected electoral debacle.  The NDP made the calculation, wrongly, that they had to appear to be fiscally conservative to maintain that lead and win.  The Liberals ate their lunch and the rest is history.

Thanks that is useful - that was my impression from outside that Trudeau basically wasn't expected to win and was a bit of a bambi placeholder who then won and everyone had to recalibrate

I suppose my question is - isn't that still the risk with focusing on maybe influencing policy, that basically the Liberals are still eating their lunch? You win on a few policy battles, but strategically you're losing ground.

[crazy canuck]

So, Ottawa is in the verge of a civil confrontation since their police force has totally abandoned the idea to do anything about the freedumb terrorists.

At least from what I read on the socials.

Here's a suggestion: convince police officers that the protesters are actually students. This should spur them into action.

Yeah, exactly what I was thinking.  Large numbers of Ontario police showed up at Kingston, very heavily armed, for Homecoming in anticipation of street parties.  I wonder where all those brave officers are now?

Serious question: to what extent is the level of police response to large scale events up to the police, and to what extent is it up to the politicians? Also, what level of politicians?

In this case, the protestors are currently causing havoc in the city of Ottawa - would a response be up to the local cops, the municipal authorities, the provincial cops, provincial authorities, or the feds? Could the PM basically tell the mayor of Ottawa to clear the streets?

I have literally no idea how this actually works in practice.

I am not sure what the answer is.  I can tell you that in the situation at Kingston, it was a political decision in order to address complaints made by non university residents of that community.  On a personal level, my son felt nervous enough walking home that evening from a friend's house that he called us and kept us on the line until he got to his house.  Lots of police out and about with machine guns.  Scared him quite a bit.

The situation in Ottawa is a bit different since jurisdiction is shared between a Federal body (responsible for the federal government lands - I can't remember their name) and of course the city of Ottawa with jurisdiction over the rest.  I heard the mayor of Ottawa on the radio this morning expressing a lot of frustration with the lack of action by the Federal authorities and her own police department being spread to thin to deal with the issues that are occurring.   She was very concerned that the citizens of the city are not being properly protected from acts of violence and harrassment.

[crazy canuck]

Some further historical context.  Trudeau won his first election by moving to the left of the NDP.  The NDP would have formed government but for that.  The NDP were way ahead in the polls at the start of the election and the Liberals were not even on the radar.  There is a lot to the thought that Trudeau was actually appointed leader as a sacrificial lamb and then the real contenders would compete for the leadership after the expected electoral debacle.  The NDP made the calculation, wrongly, that they had to appear to be fiscally conservative to maintain that lead and win.  The Liberals ate their lunch and the rest is history.

Thanks that is useful - that was my impression from outside that Trudeau basically wasn't expected to win and was a bit of a bambi placeholder who then won and everyone had to recalibrate

I suppose my question is - isn't that still the risk with focusing on maybe influencing policy, that basically the Liberals are still eating their lunch? You win on a few policy battles, but strategically you're losing ground.

Yes, certainly so.  But until recently the NDP have never had a viable shot at forming government and so their pitch has historically been - elect us so we can propose legislation that will benefit you (or something drafted more elegantly than that).  I am no NDP insider but I think that is an issue they grapple with.