[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[viper37]

You will need Google translate, but since we're on the subject:
Les genoux d'une Franco «commencent à flancher»
(A Franco's knees are starting to fail)

Way too long for me to translate.

But this is what happens to French communities outside Quebec, without the protection of our much decried language laws.  This is what the Trudeaus of this world want for French Quebecers.

[Grey Fox]

The difference is that the NDP had made great gains in Quebec, which eroded. It may be that the gains would have eroded anyway, but the turban thing clearly did not help.

The gains eroded first under Mulcair.Canada election 2004, NDP seats: 0Canada election 2006, NDP seats: 0Canada election 2008, NDP seats: 1Canada election 2011, NDP seats: 59Canada election 2015, NDP seats: 16Canada election 2019, NDP seats: 1
Imho, going from 59 to 16 is a larger erosion of the vote than from 16 to 1, although, psychologically, it sure seems like it's slap in the face because there's only 1mp left.

It's sad, really, that Ottawa barmaid who accidentally became a rural Quebec mp was quite good at her job.  For a leftist, that is   I don't necessarly agree with everything she says, but I got to admit, she was everywhere in Quebec, and fighting local battles for her riding, as I've heard.  Lots of people were impressed by her work.

To be clear, it isn't simply the fact of a federal leader wearing a turban, but that he's basically forced by that fact to react to the Quebec law - and federal interference in Quebec laws tends to annoy voters in Quebec, even if they don't agree with those laws.

That is true, but the erosion of the vote had begun under Mulcair.  The NDP orange wave in Quebec was largely due to Jack Layton's personality and personal charisma.  And yes, he tried harder than previous NDP leader to seduce Quebec - by appealling to the leftist mentality of the province.  In 2015, Trudeau managed to federate most of the left around him and he won the province.  Deception, threats of interference, they negated some of the gains of the Libs, but that's what happens when you're under attack from the left and from the right due to your own arrogant behaviour.  And it's not like he will learn that lesson.  English Montrealers will vote Liberal no matter what.  Actually, they'll vote even more Liberal when they threaten though actions against Quebec.  And we're the racist ones...

Mulcair, as an ex provincial Liberal, got of the wrong foot, trying to appeal to leftist forces, they felt more secure with Trudeau, and afaik, there were

Trudeau also disagreed with the law, but it wasn't made into a big issue for him, because of course it does not affect him personally. A Sikh can't avoid the issue because he's a walking reminder of it, just by wearing his usual clothes.

Trudeau won the vote in English ridings, Western Montreal and Outaouais areas predominantly anglo.  As usual.
Outside of these places, it wasn't so great for the Libs.
Look at this map, click on the Red ridings of rural Quebec to see their score:
https://www.macleans.ca/politics/federal-election-2019-live-map-results/
The two anomalies (St-Maurice and Gaspésie) you can see in rural Quebec, the Bloc Québécois was extremely close.

Scheer promised not to intervene in Quebec affairs, not to oppose bill 21, yet, the Conservatives lost 2 seats in the province and were unable to make any gains.

All in all, I don't think Bill 21 played that much against the NDP.  The leader just didn't campaign enough before the election.  Sure, he was in Montreal.  Visiting immigrant communities. Never heard of any NDP activities around here, in my neck of the woods, while he was leader.  Same for the Maritimes as I've read here.  Don't know about the Prairies, but he same to have visited a lot of places in BC.
To me, it seems the NDP is just like the Libs, they forgot there are people living outside of the cities of this country.  Just because we are few does not mean we do not exists.

Bill 21 didn't hurt the NDP, it hurt the Liberals. Trudeau would have a 180-200 majority if he would have just not took(taken?) the Bloc & Legault's bait.

[Malthus]

Sure, there's a demand for French immersion, but that hasn't translated in the past to a significant enough  percentage of the Anglo population who can speak French well - in fact the results have been so poor that our Quebecois posters feel like Francophones are second-class citizens when in English Canada!

For the record, I am a supporter of mandatory French language classes in school. I also go out of my way to practice my French by reading news articles and so on from time to time. However, I have to say that the effects of decades worth of mandatory French classes seem to have been fairly minimal.

I also think that attributing to moral virtue / vice why French Canadians are more likely to learn English than vice versa is the wrong way to look at it, when in fact the question is more determined by incentives.

Yup. The problem is fundamental - people won't actually learn a language unless it is actually useful to them. They won't learn it to complete someone else's vision of social engineering, if there aren't people to talk to in it. Classroom instruction alone tends not to work, because what is needed is a reason to use the language.

The old notion of Canada as two founding peoples - English and French - is enshrined in the Constitution, but immigration is rapidly changing some parts of the country, mostly the major cities Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver - all are filling with citizens who have inherited the old bargain of the French/English divide, but do not necessarily feel obliged to it, and tend to learn French and English if in Montreal and English alone if in Toronto or Vancouver.

[crazy canuck]

Not sure government policy could really fix that.

All I really ask is that everybody gets the honor of compulsory French and English in school. Glad to hear HVC got to enjoy that honor.

Not that my opinion matters

Afaik, in most provinces of English Canada, French classes begin in grade 7th.  English classes in Quebec now begin in grade 1st, they used to begin in grade 4 in my time.  Apparently, what they did was reduce the total number of hours though, so it comes to the same at the end of elementary school.

In BC in french immersion streams it begins in Kindergarten in non immersion formal instruction begins in grade 5.


@Malthus your generalization about an immigrant's interest in learning french is not consistent with french immersion being significantly oversubscribed in this city and an anecdotal observation that my son's AP french class had mainly students of Asian ancestry.

But you are correct about the lack of opportunities to speak french here.

[Malthus]

Not sure government policy could really fix that.

All I really ask is that everybody gets the honor of compulsory French and English in school. Glad to hear HVC got to enjoy that honor.

Not that my opinion matters

Afaik, in most provinces of English Canada, French classes begin in grade 7th.  English classes in Quebec now begin in grade 1st, they used to begin in grade 4 in my time.  Apparently, what they did was reduce the total number of hours though, so it comes to the same at the end of elementary school.

In BC in french immersion streams it begins in Kindergarten in non immersion formal instruction begins in grade 5.


@Malthus your generalization about an immigrant's interest in learning french is not consistent with french immersion being significantly oversubscribed in this city and an anecdotal observation that my son's AP french class had mainly students of Asian ancestry.

But you are correct about the lack of opportunities to speak french here.

The picture I see is that upper middle class types indeed flock to French immersion, but that the overall trend is the other way.

Example article on the subject:

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/new-bilingualism-taking-hold-in-canada/article4650408/

Despite decades of effort and oversubscribed French-immersion programs in some districts, a smaller proportion of Canadians outside Quebec are able to speak both of Canada's official languages. Instead, a new form of bilingualism is taking hold, driven mainly by immigration.

The new bilingualism is increasingly a combination of either English or French and one of the 200 other languages spoken in this country. Meanwhile, the number of Canadians able to read both sides of a cereal box is stagnating outside Quebec.

[Emphasis]

However, Quebec take heart:

The figures are sure to feed perennial fears for the survival of French in Quebec. But the decline is counterbalanced by another phenomenon: Newcomers to Quebec are increasingly embracing French and adopting the language as their de facto means of communication.

In short, if you immigrate to Vancouver or Toronto, odds are good you will learn English plus whatever other language you speak (I've seen this in the Ukrainian community here). If you immigrate ti Montreal or Quebec City, odds are good you will learn French plus whatever other language. 

[Oexmelin]

However, Quebec take heart:

The figures are sure to feed perennial fears for the survival of French in Quebec. But the decline is counterbalanced by another phenomenon: Newcomers to Quebec are increasingly embracing French and adopting the language as their de facto means of communication.

In short, if you immigrate to Vancouver or Toronto, odds are good you will learn English plus whatever other language you speak (I've seen this in the Ukrainian community here). If you immigrate ti Montreal or Quebec City, odds are good you will learn French plus whatever other language.

Lol, take heart.

This isn't some weird, unexpected, and wonderful development. This is the direct result of Bill 101, and the obligation of immigrants to attend French school, which has been fought tooth and nail at every step of the way.

[Legbiter]

Can't fault French Canadians for being stubborn about their language. I'm the same way about Icelandic. Be stubborn, don't yield.

[Malthus]

Lol, take heart.

This isn't some weird, unexpected, and wonderful development.

Never said it was.

This is the direct result of Bill 101, and the obligation of immigrants to attend French school, which has been fought tooth and nail at every step of the way.

I would argue it isn't Bill 101 forcing immigrants to speak French - immigrants simply wish to take on the language that is of use to them. One of the reasons they take on French, rather than English, is that so many English speakers moved out of the province as a result (among other things) of Bill 101, so French is of more use to them.

Of course immigrants aren't interested in that, they take the place as they find it.

From the article:

James White, a University of British Columbia sociologist, said it's rational for immigrants to learn the language of business in their region – whether English or French – and to maintain, at least in the first generation, the traditional language of the family. About 20.6 per cent of Canadians reported having a mother tongue other than English or French in 2011, but only 6.5 per cent said they speak another language exclusively at home.

[Emphasis]

[Grey Fox]

Bill 101 doesn't force immigrants to learn or speak French, it forces their children. In that, it is very successful.

[Zoupa]

Malthus, your argument concerning language issues is that the magical hand of the market will fix everything. I hope you won't change your tune when Beijing decides to outlaw English in the future 

[Malthus]

Bill 101 doesn't force immigrants to learn or speak French, it forces their children. In that, it is very successful.

Forced educational choice would not work if the language so chosen were not actually useful in everyday life and business. The educational requirements of Bill 101 merely hasten a process that would have occurred anyway. 

[Grey Fox]

Bill 101 doesn't force immigrants to learn or speak French, it forces their children. In that, it is very successful.

Forced educational choice would not work if the language so chosen were not actually useful in everyday life and business. The educational requirements of Bill 101 merely hasten a process that would have occurred anyway.

Sadly, no, it would have not happen anyway. Before Bill 101, it was the opposite that was happening. The Francophone minority had to conduct business in english. There was a time when a Francophone Train Station annonceur announced, for a francophone clientele, departure & arrival in English.

This is a thing the RoC anglos forget. You told us to forget our language & our culture as matter of corporate policy, just like you did to the First Nations as a matter of government policy. You were just much, much nicer about it because you were, in part, & rightfully, afraid of the Catholic Church influence.

[Oexmelin]

Forced educational choice would not work if the language so chosen were not actually useful in everyday life and business. Th e educational requirements of Bill 101 merely hasten a process that would have occurred anyway.

Err, no. We have a precedent for it: the situation before Bill 101, when immigrants overwhelmingly chose English language education. And we have numbers now, too -- which confirm that even with mandatory French schools, immigrants adopt English as their home language in numbers that are disproportionate to the proportion of English speakers in Quebec. Immigrants overwhelmingly settle in the Montreal region, where francophones are increasingly bilingual, and where monolingual anglophones continue to reside. The "business incentive" to learn French is an incentive to learn French as a mediocre second-language, while everything about North America screams that English is the language of mobility. To assert with such confidence that it is what "would have happened anyway" betrays an ignorance of the linguistic situation, and dynamics, in Quebec.

But, I too, like the market when it validates my position of strength.

[crazy canuck]

Incentives is perhaps slightly misleading. As long as French is simply, or mostly presented as an asset for federal jobs, there will never be much of an incentive to learn it. For it to become more than a flourish on one's school curriculum requires a full change of attitude from the RoC, and tremendous institutional support from the federal and provincial governments. But such support having been seen as an intolerable inconvenience or a repulsive political imposition in most provinces, and the promotion of French actually undermining the multiculturalist message of the federal government, means that this will not happen. A few people will show up to French immersion (even if those numbers overwhelm the institutions in place), they will feel good about themselves while unwittingly contributing to the assimilation of French communities outside Quebec, and then they will promptly forget their French for lack of use. Haven't you all seen the case of this guy, in Calgary, who was refused boarding in the city bus for presenting a French language ticket? Here was a well-meaning man attempting to do the *bare minimum*, and yet, it turned out to be a fucking ordeal.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1308674/billet-billingue-francais-rob-maciak-autobus

Note that Calgary transit wasn't even able to bloody get "Journée" right.

This is what is exhausting and frustrating, having to continuously fight bitter fights for *any* advances, even the more symbolic ones.  Having bilingual judges on the Supreme Court? Inconceivable! Having quality translation for stuff sold in Canada? Much too expensive! Ensuring your campaign song is in actual French rather than in Gibberish? Way too much effort! Accepting that a room full of francophones may not automatically switch to English because you are the only one who never bothered to learn another language? How rude! The cherry on top is to be lectured on all this stuff by unilingual people who casually brush aside all this as minimal inconvenience and labor. Even the mere acknowledgment that this is an unfortunate state of affair looks like pulling teeth.

I am interested in our view that putting our kids in french immersion unintentionally contributed to assimilation.  Please expand on that point.

[Malthus]

Bill 101 doesn't force immigrants to learn or speak French, it forces their children. In that, it is very successful.

Forced educational choice would not work if the language so chosen were not actually useful in everyday life and business. The educational requirements of Bill 101 merely hasten a process that would have occurred anyway.

Sadly, no, it would have not happen anyway. Before Bill 101, it was the opposite that was happening. The Francophone minority had to conduct business in english. There was a time when a Francophone Train Station annonceur announced, for a francophone clientele, departure & arrival in English.

This is a thing the RoC anglos forget. You told us to forget our language & our culture as matter of corporate policy, just like you did to the First Nations as a matter of government policy. You were just much, much nicer about it because you were, in part, & rightfully, afraid of the Catholic Church influence.

But this is exactly my point - as already stated upthread.

It wasn't the educational component of Bill 101 that makes the difference for today's immigrant kids.

It was a whole societal change which made French far more dominant than before, and thus more attractive as a language of everyday use, which did that (as well as, of course, changing the number and prominence of anglos in business etc.).