[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[HVC]

Looks like Canada/China relations are beginning the thaw and China's trade embargoes are being lifted. 

they got a massive pork die of from disease so they let Canadian pork back in. Still stopping other stuff like canola.

[PRC]

Alberta contemplating leaving CPP:

Braid: Alberta pension a serious idea that would flip out the feds

https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/columnists/braid-alberta-pension-a-serious-idea-that-would-flip-out-the-feds/wcm/5a18ddbc-a3df-4140-bd01-690499a85b26

The UCP is winding up to make one of the biggest demands ever aimed at Ottawa.

Premier Jason Kenney's letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau might say: "Send Alberta a cheque for $40 billion. We are leaving the Canada Pension Plan."

For several days now, Kenney and the UCP government have been dropping hints like clanging manhole covers.

And public interest appears to be very high in the prospect of Pexit.

Herald contributor Rob Breakenridge fostered much of the curiosity Tuesday with a thoughtful column on why an Alberta Pension Plan is worth considering.

On Oct. 29, Kenney talked frankly about leaving the Canada Pension Plan and forming an Alberta equivalent, in a Facebook video question and answer session. (The subject starts at 40:45 of the recording.)

"I can certainly tell you that will be one of the issues studied by the panel that I will be appointing to consult with Albertans on fighting for a fair deal in Canada," Kenney says in the video.

"I believe that a compelling case can be made for such a shift. We want to listen to Albertans on this first, but let me just say that with the youngest population in Canada, we are by far the largest net contributors to the CPP.

"The federal government, against our government's wishes, is imposing higher CPP payroll taxes which will decrease economic growth and kill jobs, even though with this young Alberta population we do not need and cannot justify our premiums."

He didn't note — at least, not this time — that if Alberta quits the national plan, payments from other Canadians would apparently have to rise about 10 per cent to protect benefits.

That number will catch Ottawa's attention.

In Kenney's scenario, the pension fund would be administered by the Alberta Investment Management Corporation, AIMCo. He said it's a successful world-class institutional investor with more than $100 billion under administration ($115 billion, according to the latest AIMCo report).

AIMCo handles almost all public sector plans in Alberta. Last week, the province said it would move teachers, AHS and WCB plans to AIMCo administration.

There is huge uproar over this, even though it's not unusual for many public pensions to be held under a single investment body.

Quebec's mammoth Caisse de Depot has handled public sector plans — and the Quebec Pension Plan itself — going back to 1965.

Kenney said, "I understand there is about $40 billion of Albertans' premiums under management by Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.

"If we could transfer those assets to be managed securely by AIMCo, that would also help AIMCo be a stronger asset manager that would be able to participate in larger deals . . . to further diversify their investment portfolio and improve returns over time," he concluded.

With $115 billion in the kitty even before the new plans are moved in, plus a $40-billion payout from Ottawa, AIMCo would be a giant with well over $150 billion under management.

Quebec's Caisse de Depot administers about $326 billion; the CPP Investment Board itself has $400 billion US.

Alberta would move into a very big league for a jurisdiction with only four million people.

Government officials suggest there could be a strategic advantage for Alberta development. With many lenders shunning oil and gas, AIMCo might buy more stakes in the industry.

But economist Trevor Tombe points out that the first duty of these big institutional investors is to make money, and plenty of it. Decisions made for political reasons deserve to be "a genuine scandal."

He says that if this idea gets serious, Albertans would deserve a "hard-headed look" at the actuarial numbers.

There would be anxious questions, for sure. Will a person still get all benefits built up during years with CPP? Will payments be higher with an Alberta plan? What happens if a family moves to another province?

One selling point might work like magic: Higher pension payments in Alberta.

Many Albertans want looser ties with the federal system. They favor measures that allow the province can control its destiny, without resorting to separatism.

The Alberta pension idea checks those boxes.

Withdrawing from CPP is a provincial right. It can be exercised without constitutional or legal challenge.

And as Kenney surely knows, Pexit would terrify the federal policy-makers who helped pile misfortune on Alberta.

All within our treasured federal system, of course.

[Grey Fox]

That's a good idea.

Fuckin' a Alberta, it happens, sometimes!

[crazy canuck]

Cool, as the Alberta economy crashes out of sheer spite to any change away from fossil fuels, all the young people will flee the province and they can pay the tab for whoever is left.

[Barrister]

Gee... where have I heard of this idea before?

Oh right!  The famous (or infamous) Alberta Firewall letter of 2001!

https://albertapolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/firewall.pdf

Why yes - it's item #1.

Does anyone know how it works if you've lived in both Quebec and the ROC when it comes time to get your QPP/CPP?

[Malthus]

Maybe not the best idea to threaten to go it alone financially just as market forces are turning against your resource-based economy.

[Barrister]

Maybe not the best idea to threaten to go it alone financially just as market forces are turning against your resource-based economy.

What would be foolish is to create a APP, then order it to invest in the oil and gas sector.

But in general, the idea seems to be that an APP could have slightly lower contribution rates given Alberta's younger population, and would in turn invest all over the world.

[Josephus]

BB can be a very literal fellow

All these years prosecuting, he can't help it.

[Grey Fox]

Does anyone know how it works if you've lived in both Quebec and the ROC when it comes time to get your QPP/CPP?

AFAIK, you get 2 chèques, just like if you have multiple RRSPs.

It's more about where you worked than where you lived.

[Malthus]

Maybe not the best idea to threaten to go it alone financially just as market forces are turning against your resource-based economy.

What would be foolish is to create a APP, then order it to invest in the oil and gas sector.

But in general, the idea seems to be that an APP could have slightly lower contribution rates given Alberta's younger population, and would in turn invest all over the world.

Ah, but the province has more young people exactly because they are attracted to the province to work, because of all the high paying jobs. If those go, it is entirely possible the young people will go with them.

If that is the case, what you will get is Alberta giving up all the benefits of collective nationwide risk-sharing, having historically paid into the plan more than its per capita share (all those young people working during the good economy years) just when times (may) get hard for the province, the young leave, and suddenly it is other provinces paying in more per capita.

In short, Alberta will have taken all the risks of such a system, but through its own acts, refuse to take any potential benefits.

[crazy canuck]

Not surprisingly the Conservatives don't think the problem lies with their policies.  It's just that we didn't understand their policies very well.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/scheer-caucus-1.5351101

[crazy canuck]

Maybe not the best idea to threaten to go it alone financially just as market forces are turning against your resource-based economy.

What would be foolish is to create a APP, then order it to invest in the oil and gas sector.

But in general, the idea seems to be that an APP could have slightly lower contribution rates given Alberta's younger population, and would in turn invest all over the world.

Ah, but the province has more young people exactly because they are attracted to the province to work, because of all the high paying jobs. If those go, it is entirely possible the young people will go with them.

If that is the case, what you will get is Alberta giving up all the benefits of collective nationwide risk-sharing, having historically paid into the plan more than its per capita share (all those young people working during the good economy years) just when times (may) get hard for the province, the young leave, and suddenly it is other provinces paying in more per capita.

In short, Alberta will have taken all the risks of such a system, but through its own acts, refuse to take any potential benefits.

It would be ironic if Alberta left just as their economy goes into long term decline and Quebec recovers from theirs

Quebec's economy is humming, allowing the government to shower Quebecers with more than $850 million in extra spending this fiscal year – mostly on families with children – and pay down billions of dollars of debt.

The province should finish the 2019-2020 fiscal year with a $1.4-billion surplus, fuelled by a 2.4 per cent increase in GDP in 2019 – 0.6 per cent higher than the growth rate forecast in the spring budget, Finance Minister Eric Girard announced Thursday.

[viper37]

Alberta contemplating leaving CPP:

Careful.  It starts just like that, and next thing you know, a seperatist political party takes the whole country hostage.
Or so I've read some places...

[viper37]

Gee... where have I heard of this idea before?

Oh right!  The famous (or infamous) Alberta Firewall letter of 2001!

https://albertapolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/firewall.pdf

Why yes - it's item #1.

Does anyone know how it works if you've lived in both Quebec and the ROC when it comes time to get your QPP/CPP?

You can claim both benefits, as per the rates established over all of your carreer, from the money accumulated in your name.

[viper37]

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/rex-murphy-so-when-will-trudeau-and-singh-be-asked-tasteless-questions-about-their-religion