[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

It is significant that this was litigated at a time when the then justice minister had issued directives restricting the legal arguments the crown could make in all land claim cases.

[Josephus]

I still say polls are meaningless this early, and in fact can have a negative effect.
There's no doubt the Conservatives are looking good now but there are two variable worth considering.
1. Ontario. Is Ford's waning popularity in Ontario going to hurt Scheer in the long run?
2. The Green Party. The Green Party will likely have its best performance. Who will they siphon votes off? They are likely to take millennial votes from Justin, but maybe also some young fiscal conservatives with strong environmental beliefs.

[Barrister]

CC, you might like this:

Conservatives release a countdown to their climate change plan, which will be released June 19.

Couple of observations:
-they call it a climate change plan, not an environmental plan.
-they're actually promoting it, not just releasing a plan on a Friday afternoon just so they can get it out of the way

https://www.facebook.com/AndrewScheerMP/videos/2730682650335152/

[crazy canuck]

Wow, you are correct.  I am pleasantly surprised.  If their plan is what they are promoting it to be that will be significant for me. 

[viper37]

I still say polls are meaningless this early, and in fact can have a negative effect.
There's no doubt the Conservatives are looking good now but there are two variable worth considering.
1. Ontario. Is Ford's waning popularity in Ontario going to hurt Scheer in the long run?
2. The Green Party. The Green Party will likely have its best performance. Who will they siphon votes off? They are likely to take millennial votes from Justin, but maybe also some young fiscal conservatives with strong environmental beliefs.

They will drain vote from the NDP and the Liberals.  Young fiscal conservatives may have strong environmental beliefs, but not enough to adopt rehashed left wing ideas and grand standings instead of real actions.

The Greens are actively targetting the young Liberals, those who cannot aspire to a long and lenghty carreer in the higher spheres of the public workforce.

[Josephus]

But fiscally the Greens are pretty centrist; or so I thought.

[crazy canuck]

But fiscally the Greens are pretty centrist; or so I thought.

Yeah, I am not sure what Viper means by rehash left wing ideas.

Also, I am not sure what the connection is between being a Liberal supporter and aspiring to a career in the public service.

[crazy canuck]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/parliamentary-budget-officer-climate-carbon-tax-1.5175774

A good piece on the politics of carbon taxes.  The upshot is carbon taxes are the most efficient and least disruptive to the economy compared to the alternatives.  So the Conservatives are going to have to explain why they think whatever their alternative is will be better.

[Admiral Yi]

In an Economist article on the carbon tax hulabalooo there is a graph which shows Canadians emitting 25 tons of carbon per person vs. 20 tons in the US.

I'm curious whether those emissions are measured in the extraction country or the combustion country.

[mongers]

In an Economist article on the carbon tax hulabalooo there is a graph which shows Canadians emitting 25 tons of carbon per person vs. 20 tons in the US.

I'm curious whether those emissions are measured in the extraction country or the combustion country.

Typically the end use country I'd guess.

The figure itself isn't that surprising given the population density of Canada vs USA; there's a fair few Canadians out there racking up significant carbon footprints.

I'd hazard the average Australian also has the Americans beat. 

[Admiral Yi]

Typically the end use country I'd guess.

The figure itself isn't that surprising given the population density of Canada vs USA; there's a fair few Canadians out there racking up significant carbon footprints.

I'd hazard the average Australian also has the Americans beat.

My guess is the opposite.  Canada exports a lot of fossil fuels, doesn't have a particularly high level of smokestack industries, and the population density you mentioned means more emission-efficient public transportation.

[mongers]

Typically the end use country I'd guess.

The figure itself isn't that surprising given the population density of Canada vs USA; there's a fair few Canadians out there racking up significant carbon footprints.

I'd hazard the average Australian also has the Americans beat.

My guess is the opposite.  Canada exports a lot of fossil fuels, doesn't have a particularly high level of smokestack industries, and the population density you mentioned means more emission-efficient public transportation.

But proportionately more fossil fuel exports also mean greater emissions involved in the extraction and processing.

Also a sparser population might well mean a greater or sole reliance on private transport like cars and light planes for a greater no of Canadians.  Though I guess it'll depend on the urbanisation rate vis USA.

[crazy canuck]

Typically the end use country I'd guess.

The figure itself isn't that surprising given the population density of Canada vs USA; there's a fair few Canadians out there racking up significant carbon footprints.

I'd hazard the average Australian also has the Americans beat.

My guess is the opposite.  Canada exports a lot of fossil fuels, doesn't have a particularly high level of smokestack industries, and the population density you mentioned means more emission-efficient public transportation.

Mongers is correct.

Here is some data that is a little dated by accurate enough for this discussion.

The energy sector was responsible for 81 per cent of Canada's total GHG emissions in 2010. Emissions from this sector come from combustion sources (such as electricity and heat generation, and fossil fuel industries), transportation (such as road vehicles), and fugitive sources (generated by oil and natural gas processing and, to a lesser extent, mining). Energy combustion is the largest of these sources, contributing 45 per cent of Canada's total GHG emissions in 2010.4

Industrial processes (such as the chemical industry), the waste sector (such as solid waste disposal on land), and agriculture also generate a significant amount of GHG emissions in Canada.

https://www.conferenceboard.ca/hcp/Details/Environment/greenhouse-gas-emissions.aspx?AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

Alberta is a real problem in this regard.  A lot of their extraction is powered by coal and natural gas plants.  There was a plan to use the hydro power that will be generated at the new site C dam being built to be used in Alberta and hopefully that will still happen.

[viper37]

But fiscally the Greens are pretty centrist; or so I thought.

Yeah, I am not sure what Viper means by rehash left wing ideas.

Also, I am not sure what the connection is between being a Liberal supporter and aspiring to a career in the public service.

The higher echelons of the public workforce are generally filled to the brim with Liberal sympathizers, from Trudeau and Chrétien's era.  This Trudeau will make a lot of nominations before leaving.

[viper37]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/parliamentary-budget-officer-climate-carbon-tax-1.5175774

A good piece on the politics of carbon taxes.  The upshot is carbon taxes are the most efficient and least disruptive to the economy compared to the alternatives.  So the Conservatives are going to have to explain why they think whatever their alternative is will be better.

I like the conclusion.  For once, logic applies in climate discussions.  On both sides of the fence.

I still prefer cap&trade to plain "carbon" tax.  Seems to me the tax is too easily diverted from anything meaningful to truly reduce GHG emissions.  And it's not like having a price on carbon will magically reduce everything if we keep having a generous fiscality to oil&gaz companies.  That money needs to be invested in federal research grant for environmental technology, not just "green" energy project, but decabornization projects of the future. 

Alternatively, some kind of shield above and around Canada