[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

BQ is doubling the NDP in Quebec, neck in neck with the Conservatives. Libs @ 32%.

This will be a disastrous election for everyone but the separatist cause.

Does that reflect an increased interest in separatism, or left of centre Quebec voters feeling more comfortable with the BQ than the NDP?

[Oexmelin]

Does that reflect an increased interest in separatism, or left of centre Quebec voters feeling more comfortable with the BQ than the NDP?

NDP has only superficial roots in Quebec. People do not have strong feelings about the NDP; it never, ever had a strong presence, and had a tradition of picking leaders with little to no French (and no good local spokesperson). Jack Layton, and Tom Mulcair changed all that. They knew how to tone down the Canada-centric rhetoric, which allowed people for whom Quebec's identity was *also* to be found in a more progressive social stance, to vote for them.

There is still an important constituency for Quebec nationalism. It ebbs and flows according to context. The Bloc had been so thoroughly destroyed that it can now simply be the repository of whatever nationalist sentiment emerges now, and that sentiment now is defined by the current debate about laïcité. This is not favorable at all to Singh. If NDP candidates survive, it will be on the strength of their local achievements.

[Oexmelin]

There have been some polls come out recently that were very favourable to the Conservatives.

Liberals continue to bleed support.  Greens are at an all-time high, and the Bloq is looking set to do better than it did last time.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

As an aside, and seen from outside the country, I am still amazed at the change in Liberal support. The decrease seems so superficial, and reasons evoked in the papers look much more like partisan talking points than actual issues. Yeah, so Trudeau is somewhat of an empty vessel. So what? What is the great societal challenge that his character has prevented from addressing? And what great feat of oratory, what amazing new policy, what exciting issue has people turning to the Conservatives? I see, and read, people apparently being riled up for trifles. What am I missing?

(I still wouldn't vote for either of these parties if I could still vote).

[Barrister]

As an aside, and seen from outside the country, I am still amazed at the change in Liberal support. The decrease seems so superficial, and reasons evoked in the papers look much more like partisan talking points than actual issues. Yeah, so Trudeau is somewhat of an empty vessel. So what? What is the great societal challenge that his character has prevented from addressing? And what great feat of oratory, what amazing new policy, what exciting issue has people turning to the Conservatives? I see, and read, people apparently being riled up for trifles. What am I missing?

(I still wouldn't vote for either of these parties if I could still vote).

A few observations:

First of course is the drop in Liberal support isn't all that dramatic.  Before the whole #LavScam incident the Liberals were polling at around 36-37, and the Conservatives at 33.  So the Liberals have only dropped 7-8 points, and the Conservatives only gained 3 (so this likely says much more about Trudeau than about any great enthusiasm for Scheer).

Second though, I would push back that these are just partisan talking points.  JWR and Philpott were his own Ministers, who resigned because they felt the PMO was acting unethically.  That is a big deal.  It's a very traditional scandal perhaps (and lacks the sexiness of a President possibly colluding with foreign intelligence services) but the PMO was exposed for changing the law and exerting pressure to have charges dropped against a Liberal-friendly firm who donates a lot of money to the Liberal Party (often illegally).

Third, I think it exposes Trudeau as more than just an "empty vessel" - it exposes him as a hypocrite.  He promised a new relationship with First Nations people, but quickly bounced his top First Nations minister when she disagreed with him.  Same thing for being a feminist.  He promised "sunny ways" but appears his re-election strategy is to call Andrew Scheer a closet white supremacist.

[crazy canuck]

Well entering into a prosecution agreement is far from having "charges dropped".  But with that aside, I largely agree with BB but with one other difference.  I think the drop in support for the Liberals is dramatic.  At this stage in the election cycle an incumbent government should be ahead if they have any chance of success.  I don't think the Conservatives have gained any (or at least many) votes. They are about where they were during the Harper governing years.  This is more of a story of the Liberals disintegrating.  After years of the Liberals being the beneficiaries of the vote being split on the right, they are going to be the victims of the vote being split on the left.

But of course anything can happen during an election.  At the beginning of the last one I was pretty certain Mulcair was going to be the next PM.

[viper37]

What am I missing?

The great feat of oratory, the amazing new policy, the exciting issue that had people turning Liberal in the first place.

[viper37]

He's doing the right thing.  He hasn't done anything wrong in regards to Canadian laws, and its not like he will revive the seperation issue in Quebec.

Apparently what actually happened is that he was swindled by an online visa broker. Heh.

Full story here:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-catalan-leader-carles-puigdemont-reapplies-with-canadian-government-to/

So, to avoid the hassfle of filing a form and paying 7$, he paid 62$ for a broker to do the work for him and then paid a Canadian lawyer on top of his spanish lawyers to clear the issue...

Ahhh.  Well, clearly, Spain isn't under any threat of a Catalan rebellion anytime soon...

[viper37]

BQ is doubling the NDP in Quebec, neck in neck with the Conservatives. Libs @ 32%.

This will be a disastrous election for everyone but the separatist cause.

I still don't get how anyone could vote for that Blanchet moron, but then again, I never understood how so many Quebecers could vote for Trudeau.

[viper37]

The Saskatchewan appellate courts has ruled in favour of the Federal Govt on the carbon tax issue.  The judgment was divided 3-2, which leaves hopes for Sasktachewan, and other provinces, to overturn this ruling in front of the Supreme Court.

I am curious as to the reasonning of the minority here.

[crazy canuck]

Some highlights for you.  First of all, BB is going to be conflicted about this decision.  The majority relied on the Peace Order and Good Government clause.   

For you non lawyers, the
case was about analyzing the pith and substance of the legislation to determine whether it fell within Federal or Provincial jurisdiction.  The basic difference between the majority and minority is that the majority analyzed the whole of the legislation to determine its purpose (to reduce emissions) in order to find it fell within POGG while the minority analyzed how the purpose would be achieved to reach the conclusion it was really a piece of taxation legislation falling within provincial jurisdiction.

Here is the essence of why the Court found POGG applied.

[147] The following unchallenged features of the record are noteworthy in this regard:
(a) "There is widespread international consensus that carbon pricing is a necessary
measure, though not a sufficient measure, to achieve the global reductions in
GHG emissions necessary to meet the Paris Agreement targets" (Moffet affidavit
at para 46).
(b) "A well-designed carbon price is an indispensable part of a strategy for reducing
emissions in an efficient way" (High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices, Report
of the High-Level Commission on Carbon Prices (Washington, DC: World Bank,
2017) at 1).
(c) "There is a widespread trend in favour of carbon pricing ... Overall, 67
jurisdictions ... are putting a price on carbon" (Moffet affidavit at para 49).
(d) "The existing literature is highly convergent in finding that carbon prices that
have been implemented around the world have been successful in reducing
greenhouse gas emissions" (Nicholas Rivers affidavit affirmed October 5, 2018,
at para 6(b)).

[148] In light of this, it is difficult to suggest GHG emissions prices and the more specific
question of minimum national standards of price stringency for GHG emissions are anything
other than matters of sufficient consequence to warrant consideration for inclusion under the
national concern branch of POGG.

Given those uncontradicted legislative facts the smart money is on the SCC dismissing any appeal.

[viper37]

I read elsewhere that by offering the provinces the choice between a Federal carbon tax or their own legislative piece to price carbon, the government essentially respected the spirit of the Constitution.

I'm still surprised it was split.

[Josephus]

Well entering into a prosecution agreement is far from having "charges dropped".  But with that aside, I largely agree with BB but with one other difference.  I think the drop in support for the Liberals is dramatic.  At this stage in the election cycle an incumbent government should be ahead if they have any chance of success.  I don't think the Conservatives have gained any (or at least many) votes. They are about where they were during the Harper governing years.  This is more of a story of the Liberals disintegrating.  After years of the Liberals being the beneficiaries of the vote being split on the right, they are going to be the victims of the vote being split on the left.

But of course anything can happen during an election.  At the beginning of the last one I was pretty certain Mulcair was going to be the next PM.

This.

Polls today are meaningless. It all comes down to what happens the week of the election. I do think Trudeau is in trouble; but anything can happen between today and voting day. Voters have short memories.

[Oexmelin]

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer promises detailed climate plan by end of world

https://themanatee.net/conservative-leader-andrew-scheer-promises-detailed-climate-plan-by-end-of-world/?fbclid=IwAR3YYg__0hRDjYxcetY5qzuD_OQfdjUZkekjutZKXMHoKS1r0tpOfl_jPZI

[Barrister]

Polls today are meaningless. It all comes down to what happens the week of the election. I do think Trudeau is in trouble; but anything can happen between today and voting day. Voters have short memories.

Well I disagree that they are meaningless - but obviously a lot can change during an election campaign.

[crazy canuck]

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer promises detailed climate plan by end of world

https://themanatee.net/conservative-leader-andrew-scheer-promises-detailed-climate-plan-by-end-of-world/?fbclid=IwAR3YYg__0hRDjYxcetY5qzuD_OQfdjUZkekjutZKXMHoKS1r0tpOfl_jPZI

But yeah, if they actually had a plan, why wait to tell us what it is?  Presumably, again assuming they are not lying about actually having a plan, it is because they are so busy trying to undo the thing everyone* agrees is at least one of the things that definitely needs to be done.


*well everyone that actually believes that climate change is real and caused by humans that is.