[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

When did conservative governments start winning elections and when did that run of electoral success end?

 

When Peter Lougheed's PCs first won an election in 1971 they defeated the SoCreds,  Lougheed's party ran as a centrist movement, and were definitely to the SoCreds left.  Now of course on the national scene when you had Trudeau Sr in power Lougheed was seen as a right-wing politician, but he wasn't necessarily seen that way in Alberta.

Don Getty followed Lougheed.  Again a kind of centre-right figure, saw the deficit balloon under his watch.  The SoCreds were long gone though, with the main competition coming from the Liberals, so the PCs were certainly seen as the right-wing party.

Then of course you had Ralph Klein, who took a fairly hard-right turn in his governing style.

Then in 2006 you had Ed Stelmach.  He was a compromise candidate, finishing third in the first round of voting.  HIs signature move was to raise oil royalty rates, which backfired on him.  He started a move back towards the centre for the party.

Then in 2011 you had Allison Redford.  She in part secured her leadership by gaining the support of the Teachers Union, a very curious move for a supposed right-wing candidate.  She also saw the huge growth in Wildrose by abandoning her right flank and moving squarely to the centre.

So there you have it - the "right wing" PCs really only existed from, say, 1980 to 2011.

[crazy canuck]

I think the disconnect is you see this in terms of ideological purity. The conservatives have held power in Alberta under one party or another since forever.

[viper37]

Trudeau loses his cool with Celina Caesar Chavannes

her crime: she does not want to run for re-election.  Shame on her...

[PRC]

And now in Alberta apparently Brian Jean is back in the game, looking to lead the Freedom Conservative Party.  That party has its own major issues, led currently by Derek Fildebrandt, a guy who was kicked out of the UCP by Jason Kenney and who has a history of issues with Brian Jean.

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-calgary-councillor-says-brian-jean-is-back-big-time

Whatever you say against Brian Jean, the guy has a legitimate issue with how the UCP leadership race went.  Jean was the guy who instrumental in uniting the two main conservative parties into the UCP, but was totally scammed out of the leadership by Kenney, whose colleagues used straight up illegal means to steal the leadership from Jean.  If Jean still has a lot of friends in the UCP maybe the guy who brought the conservatives together could be the guy who splits them apart again.   One can only hope.

[Barrister]

And now in Alberta apparently Brian Jean is back in the game, looking to lead the Freedom Conservative Party.  That party has its own major issues, led currently by Derek Fildebrandt, a guy who was kicked out of the UCP by Jason Kenney and who has a history of issues with Brian Jean.

https://calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-calgary-councillor-says-brian-jean-is-back-big-time

Whatever you say against Brian Jean, the guy has a legitimate issue with how the UCP leadership race went.  Jean was the guy who instrumental in uniting the two main conservative parties into the UCP, but was totally scammed out of the leadership by Kenney, whose colleagues used straight up illegal means to steal the leadership from Jean.  If Jean still has a lot of friends in the UCP maybe the guy who brought the conservatives together could be the guy who splits them apart again.   One can only hope.

I'm pretty sure the only people who hope that are people who want to see Rachel Notley re-elected.

Not sure exactly how this would work either.  The election has to be held before May 31.  At most we're only a few weeks away from the writ being dropped.  Not a lot of time to organize a brand new political party

[PRC]

For one thing the Freedom Conservative Party of Alberta is not a brand new political party, they've been operating since 1999 but changed their name in 2018, so there not organising a brand new party.  Second to that Brian Jean is a guy who could probably do it.  He adds instant credibility and has the contacts that could cause an immediate rift in the UCP.  With all the revelations about the UCP leadership scandal he must personally feel bitter towards Kenney, as would his former supporters in that leadership race who now know that Kenney and his team engaged in illegal means to steal the leadership away from Jean.  They'd have the reason to jump ship.  Brian Jean has also recently been vocal about Kenney's pipe dream fiscal plan as well, getting his name out there in the public again, as an alternative conservative voice to Kenney. 

[Barrister]

For one thing the Freedom Conservative Party of Alberta is not a brand new political party, they've been operating since 1999 but changed their name in 2018, so there not organising a brand new party.  Second to that Brian Jean is a guy who could probably do it.  He adds instant credibility and has the contacts that could cause an immediate rift in the UCP.  With all the revelations about the UCP leadership scandal he must personally feel bitter towards Kenney, as would his former supporters in that leadership race who now know that Kenney and his team engaged in illegal means to steal the leadership away from Jean.  They'd have the reason to jump ship.  Brian Jean has also recently been vocal about Kenney's pipe dream fiscal plan as well, getting his name out there in the public again, as an alternative conservative voice to Kenney.

Being a registered party is one thing.  I acknowledge that the FCP exists as a legal entity.

Getting serious candidates, campaign staffs, money in the bank, office space rented, signs printed... that can't be done in 2-3 weeks.

Which again points me to "who exactly wants this"?  Brian Jean and the FCP can not possibly win this election.  At best they could win some seats and try to hold Kenney accountable from the right.  Most likely they wind up doing nothing at all.  At worst though they throw the election to the NDP.

[PRC]

Well Jean just tweeted that he has heard crazy rumours about "something" coming Friday, but none of it involves him.  Puts Calgary councillor Joe Magliocca in a weird spot.

[PRC]

RCMP have taken over the investigation into Jason Kenney's UCP "irregular financial contributions".

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-rcmp-investigation-ucp-financial-contributions-1.5057255

[Barrister]

Well Jean just tweeted that he has heard crazy rumours about "something" coming Friday, but none of it involves him.  Puts Calgary councillor Joe Magliocca in a weird spot.

https://edmontonsun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-brian-jean-story-not-denied-conservatives-angry/wcm/40bce0cb-4794-47d8-a853-38e55a03d5b7?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR16KnadMD9jaSPtrO9xvg5lnY6Rr9ghMlLBuW6yixT4JpuETUYLbHOq84I#Echobox=1552655804

Columnist points out that all Jean was refuting was that something would happen on Friday (today).  Also points out that a lot of negative reaction has come from Magliocca's story, so perhaps Jean has just reconsidered.

[PRC]

Yeah, both Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe and Stephen Harper tweeted yesterday that Conservatives need to be united here.  A call from Harper could definitely give one pause.  Then again, maybe we'll just get some extra headlines on Monday after the Throne Speech.

[PRC]

Regarding that RCMP takeover of the UCP "irregular financial contributions", Brian Jean tweeted this morning:

"This is what I was afraid of.  I wrote to Jason Kenney twice about this in last 3 months.  Sent Harper a note.  No one called me back.  Nothing was done.  People involved in this mess were kept on payroll and remained candidates."

https://twitter.com/BrianJeanAB/status/1106589494570975233

[PRC]

The chips continue to fall on Jason Kenney and the UCP.  How long until Kenney resigns in the face of this scandal? 

Hardyal Singh confirms Kenney was at the meeting at Jeff Callaway's house discussing "kamikaze" attack on Brian Jean, despite Kenney's denial of any knowledge of it: https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=2243406692393153&id=100001715338508

Edmonton Journal: UCP leadership revelations a scandal of ethics, integrity and hypocrisy

Rachel Notley had a great quote on calling the election: "If our election timing was driven by the calendar of investigation into conservative criminal wrongdoing, then we would never have a campaign."

[Barrister]

Notley must feel that the dynamics have changed.  After introducing a budget yesterday I would have thought she'd try and milk that for a couple weeks, then call an election.  I also would have thought she'd have a long writ period, given how far behind she is in the polls.  But no - she's called an election today for April 16.

[Barrister]

And on the Federal scene, the Liberal-dominated Justice Committee has stated that they will not call any more witnesses, that there work is done, and they will leave it to the ethics commissioner to investigate further (but oh yeah - he's on extended medical leave since March 12).  The much besmirched Privy Council Clerk is retiring after many said his performance before the Committee both times seemed highly partisan - something inappropriate in the head civil servant in the country.

And Trudeau appoints Anne McLellan to advice on the dual role of justice minister and AG.  She held that position for a number of years - as a member of a Liberal government.

So that's Trudeau's approach then.  Batten down the hatches and just try to ride this one out.  No attempt to have a non-partisan investigation.