[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Barrister]

So the embattled NDP leader Jagmeet Singh finally gets his chance to win a seat in Parliament.  Tough riding for him though: Singh is frm Ontario, but he's running in BC (Burnaby South), in a riding the NDP only narrowly won.  And while it's a minority-majority riding, there are many more Chinese residents there than Indian - and the Liberals are running a Chinese-Canadian, while the Conservatives are running a Korean-Canadian.

Anyways, Singh was just given a major gift: Liberal Candidate Karen Wang sent out a message on Chinese-language WeChat urging people to vote for her as the only candidate of 'Chinese descent', and noting Singh was of 'Indian descent'.

After this came out in public (and gave Singh a grand opportunity to come out and say he's running to be the candidate for Canadians of all heritages), the Liberal candidate has withdrawn.  We'll see if the Libs appoint a replacement or not.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/wang-resigns-singh-burnaby-south-byelection-1.4980537

[PRC]

The Liberals should run another candidate of Chinese descent.  Wang's comment may still resonate with that demographic and the new candidate will be unburdened by Wang's faux pas. 

[crazy canuck]

I would like to start a discussion about the weaknesses in our political system.  If I was an American I would definitely be providing financial support to a candidate of my choice for 2020.  I would also definitely be financially supporting a local representative.  I feel no such inclination domestically.

As you all know we have a Federal election less that a year away and I can think of good reasons not to vote for any of the parties.  Parliamentary democracy functions by the most able to become leaders of the party and therefore PM.  The individual members just follow the party line.  If there is not good leadership at the top and no good alternatives waiting to replace a poor leader, then we are in a bit of a mess.

I think we are at that point now.  And, I suspect that is also the problem in Britain.  The strength of the American system is they get an automatic flushing cycle and new able ambitious people can take to the field without having to put in years party dues paying. 

So back to Canada - I really don't know where any of the parties go from here.  The NDP have to drop their dud asap (but they won't) and it is probably too late for them anyway.  The Liberals will hang on to Trudeau for as long as possible (and chances are he will win again so we will have to live with that).  Scheer has to figure out a policy platform that will resonate with the majority of Canadians and not just the Conservative base if he will have any chance of winning (what are the odds of that?)

In the meantime, unlike the Americans, who can point to a number of good alternatives (for both parties).  Is there anyone out there for us?

[Barrister]

The Conservatives are a whole 2 points behind the Liberals, 37% to 35%.  The next election is going to be very dynamic.

[crazy canuck]

The Conservatives are a whole 2 points behind the Liberals, 37% to 35%.  The next election is going to be very dynamic.

Scheer vs. Trudeau vs someguy who should never have been elected leader is not really a "dynamic" election.  The opposite is more likely - the Conservatives look poised to recycle the right wing populist tropes from our neighbors to the South (especially the immigration issue and tax cuts) and the Liberals are going to muddle their way through with the same old platitudes.  A guy like Layton or even Mulcair would probably have done very well for the NDP in these circumstances.

[Malthus]

I would like to start a discussion about the weaknesses in our political system.  If I was an American I would definitely be providing financial support to a candidate of my choice for 2020.  I would also definitely be financially supporting a local representative.  I feel no such inclination domestically.

As you all know we have a Federal election less that a year away and I can think of good reasons not to vote for any of the parties.  Parliamentary democracy functions by the most able to become leaders of the party and therefore PM.  The individual members just follow the party line.  If there is not good leadership at the top and no good alternatives waiting to replace a poor leader, then we are in a bit of a mess.

I think we are at that point now.  And, I suspect that is also the problem in Britain.  The strength of the American system is they get an automatic flushing cycle and new able ambitious people can take to the field without having to put in years party dues paying. 

So back to Canada - I really don't know where any of the parties go from here.  The NDP have to drop their dud asap (but they won't) and it is probably too late for them anyway.  The Liberals will hang on to Trudeau for as long as possible (and chances are he will win again so we will have to live with that).  Scheer has to figure out a policy platform that will resonate with the majority of Canadians and not just the Conservative base if he will have any chance of winning (what are the odds of that?)

In the meantime, unlike the Americans, who can point to a number of good alternatives (for both parties).  Is there anyone out there for us?

Agreed, which is why we tend to have a cycle in which one federal party dominates until it becomes so stagnant that the public switches to the other. I expect Trudeau to win again, and for the Liberals to go down that well-trodden road.

[Grey Fox]

Scheer winning would be disastrous for Canada, a boon for Quebec independance.

[Barrister]

The Conservatives are a whole 2 points behind the Liberals, 37% to 35%.  The next election is going to be very dynamic.

Scheer vs. Trudeau vs someguy who should never have been elected leader is not really a "dynamic" election.  The opposite is more likely - the Conservatives look poised to recycle the right wing populist tropes from our neighbors to the South (especially the immigration issue and tax cuts) and the Liberals are going to muddle their way through with the same old platitudes.  A guy like Layton or even Mulcair would probably have done very well for the NDP in these circumstances.

Both Scheer and Singh are still very much unknowns on the Canadian stage.  I'll certainly agree that Singh has underwhelmed thus far, but that was probably to be expected - he had no national profile prior to running.  We'll see what both can do in a general election.

Very much disagree that the Conservatives are going to run a copy of Trumpism.  Running against immigration is a non-starter - the Conservatives need too many ethnic votes in order to win.  They probably will run on some version of 'border security', but I see that as a perfectly valid issue (and one that resonates well with large numbers of legal immigrants).

[Barrister]

Scheer winning would be disastrous for Canada, a boon for Quebec independance.

Can we please restrain from ridiculous "Flight 93" type commentary?

Conservatives have won numerous elections in Canada, and disaster have never followed.

[Grey Fox]

Scheer winning would be disastrous for Canada, a boon for Quebec independance.

Can we please restrain from ridiculous "Flight 93" type commentary?

Conservatives have won numerous elections in Canada, and disaster have never followed.

We live in the age of Trumpism. The PPC is going to steal's Scheer's base with fascist, forced birth and anti-environment rethoric. Scheer needs that 15%.

[Barrister]

We live in the age of Trumpism. The PPC is going to steal's Scheer's base with fascist, forced birth and anti-environment rethoric. Scheer needs that 15%.

We'll see about that.

[Grey Fox]

We live in the age of Trumpism. The PPC is going to steal's Scheer's base with fascist, forced birth and anti-environment rethoric. Scheer needs that 15%.

We'll see about that.

To echo CC's crying out, because the way our system works neither you or me can do anything about it in either direction. Your riding will go Conservative* & mine will go Liberal.

*or are you in Edmonton Strathcona?

[Barrister]

We live in the age of Trumpism. The PPC is going to steal's Scheer's base with fascist, forced birth and anti-environment rethoric. Scheer needs that 15%.

We'll see about that.

To echo CC's crying out, because the way our system works neither you or me can do anything about it in either direction. Your riding will go Conservative* & mine will go Liberal.

*or are you in Edmonton Strathcona?

Edmonton Riverbend.

[Grey Fox]

Conservative it is!

How high is the PPC polling in your riding?

[Barrister]

Conservative it is!

How high is the PPC polling in your riding?

Using the 2011 results the Conservatives should get 58% of the vote.