[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[crazy canuck]

Gifted link from the NYTimes, explaining how PP can't grow his vote beyond his base because he is too Trumpy.  Also explains why his rallies are large.  The people who like his Trumpist message are all in.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/world/americas/poilievre-populism-alberta.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-k4.X__-.tDa7KR-uFVzx&smid=url-share

[Grey Fox]

Thanks CC.

[Valmy]

Trump is tanking oil prices with his polices and Alberta is all "OH WE FUCKING LOVE YOU MR TRUMP PLEASE BEND US OVER AND FUCK US TO"

I just don't get those people.

First of all Trump and his supporters hate you. They may pretend to like Canadian Conservatives but they don't. They hate you and think you are subhuman because you are not American. You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

[viper37]

You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

Kinda like Trump supporters, you mean?

I'm still willing to reach out to non MAGA cultists.

[Jacob]

Gifted link from the NYTimes, explaining how PP can't grow his vote beyond his base because he is too Trumpy.  Also explains why his rallies are large.  The people who like his Trumpist message are all in.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/world/americas/poilievre-populism-alberta.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-k4.X__-.tDa7KR-uFVzx&smid=url-share

Thanks.

In the article, Preston Manning is quoted as making the claim that:

In an interview, Mr. Manning said he simply wanted to point out that "Western alienation has been brewing and getting stronger" because of the Liberal government's opposition to building fuel pipelines.

My impression is that the obstacles to building pipelines have mostly been provincial. Is that incorrect?

[viper37]

You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

You'll have to ask Neil and BB.

They're the ones in Alberta with Smith and Poilièvre power base.

[crazy canuck]

You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

You'll have to ask Neil and BB.

They're the ones in Alberta with Smith and Poilièvre power base.

Neil has made a number of posts making it clear he is not entirely comfortable with PP. And how he voted is his business.  BB has been supportive of PP throughout and so would probably be the better person to ask.  But again, how BB ultimately votes in this election is his business.

[viper37]

Gifted link from the NYTimes, explaining how PP can't grow his vote beyond his base because he is too Trumpy.  Also explains why his rallies are large.  The people who like his Trumpist message are all in.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/10/world/americas/poilievre-populism-alberta.html?unlocked_article_code=1.-k4.X__-.tDa7KR-uFVzx&smid=url-share

Thanks.

In the article, Preston Manning is quoted as making the claim that:

In an interview, Mr. Manning said he simply wanted to point out that "Western alienation has been brewing and getting stronger" because of the Liberal government's opposition to building fuel pipelines.

My impression is that the obstacles to building pipelines have mostly been provincial. Is that incorrect?

1) First Nations have a veto.  Trudeau and some of the oil companies, like Suncor said they would respect it.  The Supreme Court hasn't ruled on the veto, but First Nations must be consulted, must be compensated and it would be very, very, very difficult to do any project that cross their lands without their approval

2) They blame bill C-69, which in reality does not prevent projects from going ahead. It's another Albertan myth.  It requires projects from following strict environmental guidelines.  Gone are the days where you could build a pipeline with lower quality steel to save on the costs and simply replace the damaged section when it leaked 15-20 years in the future.  It has to be rated for 40 years and it has to be inspected.  Oil companies hate it, therefore Alberta calls it woke policies.  Alberta already destroyed many lakes, rivers and farmland due their reckless exploitation of natural resources, they want to export their development model to the rest of Canada.

3) No province has ever opposed a pipeline, not even Quebec.  The Quebec Superior court blocked a project because the government forgot to include the effects of the maritime terminal in its environmental study.  Flawed environmental study = win for the opponents in court.  The government couldn't deliver a permit for the project.  Plus, the whole process was already flawed, I've talked about it before.

4) That whole concept of Western Alienation is crazy.  We just paid for a fucking pipeline to the exclusive use of Alberta for which we'll never see our money back, we give 30B$ in subsidies (including loan guarantees) to the oil industry yearly (most of which is in the West), they deny climate change, they refuse to make the slightest effort toward energy transition, they constantly lie about Quebec, they lowered their taxes to the point they can't finance their own healthcare anymore, but we're the ones alienating them.

[viper37]

You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

You'll have to ask Neil and BB.

They're the ones in Alberta with Smith and Poilièvre power base.

Neil has made a number of posts making it clear he is not entirely comfortable with PP. And how he voted is his business.  BB has been supportive of PP throughout and so would probably be the better person to ask.  But again, how BB ultimately votes in this election is his business.

What I meant is, they could tell us what is the general feeling about Albertans toward the MAGA core of the Conservative and Wild Rose party.

Is it growing, is it stable, is it receding each time Smith opens her mouth?

I don't really care how they vote this election, it's not my business.

edit (my)

[crazy canuck]

1) Transmountain obtained the agreement of all indigenous communities for the pipeline, except for one but the courts ruled that that one group had been adequately consulted and injunction orders were granted which allowed the pipeline to be built when protestors tried to prevent construction.

2) I agree

3) BC opposed all pipelines at first, but had to back down because their legal position became untenable.

4) I agree

[crazy canuck]

You have to be the dumbest motherfuckers on the planet to not see it.

You'll have to ask Neil and BB.

They're the ones in Alberta with Smith and Poilièvre power base.

Neil has made a number of posts making it clear he is not entirely comfortable with PP. And how he voted is his business.  BB has been supportive of PP throughout and so would probably be the better person to ask.  But again, how BB ultimately votes in this election is his business.

What I meant is, they could tell us what is the general feeling about Albertans toward the MAGA core of the Conservative and Wild Rose party.

Is it growing, is it stable, is it receding each time Smith opens her mouth?

I don't really care how they vote this election, it's not business.

Ah gotcha, yes.

[viper37]

1) Transmountain obtained the agreement of all indigenous communities for the pipeline, except for one but the courts ruled that that one group had been adequately consulted and injunction orders were granted which allowed the pipeline to be built when protestors tried to prevent construction.

2) I agree

3) BC opposed all pipelines at first, but had to back down because their legal position became untenable.

4) I agree

Well, I was thinking about the Energy East one.
It's the one some Albertans, Smith and Manning in particular, are always bitching about.

Trans-Mountain was built, the Federal govt footed the bill, Alberta will get to keep its oil revenue, but it's not enough for Alberta.

[crazy canuck]

I don't blame Alberta for thinking they need more than Transmountain.  The initial proposal was for two new pipelines headed West, in addition to the Transmountain expansion.

What I don't know is whether there is now sufficient demand for that kind of pipeline capacity.

[viper37]

I don't blame Alberta for thinking they need more than Transmountain.  The initial proposal was for two new pipelines headed West, in addition to the Transmountain expansion.

What I don't know is whether there is now sufficient demand for that kind of pipeline capacity.

They're asking for the Federal government to finance the project and give loan guarantees.

For something long established like natural gas and oil.

There does not seem to be demand from Asia.  Europe, maybe.

The only pipeline I see that could be govt funded is the one crossing the US right now that arrives in Montreal.

[viper37]

I've got the beginning of a response for Alberta.

They are disconnected from reality, inside their own echo chamber.

Some Conservative supporters question whether the polls can be trusted

Outside of a convention centre where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre held a rally in Brampton, Ont., Wednesday evening, two of his supporters unfurled a long white banner that read: "Do you believe the polls?"

"If he's not going to win, we're going to lose Canada," said one of the supporters named Sarah, who didn't want to give her last name, and wore a sweater with the same message.

"Look at the crowd coming out for Poilievre! We cannot believe the polls are right."

Some of Poilievre's supporters told CBC News they don't believe the data because it doesn't reflect the enthusiasm they see at Poilievre's rallies, which have drawn the largest crowds of any campaign so far. 

Some supporters suspect a conspiracy

"It doesn't make sense," said Paul, another supporter who held the banner and also didn't want to share his last name.
"They're trying to skew people's votes ... how do we know those polls aren't biased?"
Paul said the idea to question the polls started around a coffee table with a small group of Poilievre supporters. He said they plan to travel across the country starting Thursday to conduct their own live polls from rallies since they believe there is a disconnect between the momentum that they say they're witnessing on the ground and the results in public opinion surveys.

Poilievre was asked on Thursday whether he believes the polls and will commit to respecting the federal election results no matter what the outcome.

"Yes, and that decision will be based on whether after a lost Liberal decade of rising crime and costs and a falling economy under America's thumb we can trust, we can afford, a fourth Liberal term," Poilievre said.

"Or whether we want change with a new Conservative government that will axe taxes, build homes, stop crime, unleash our resources so we can bring home our jobs and stand up to Washington from a position of strength."

Is that dude preparing his own Jan 6th??