[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Zoupa]

some do some don't. It's not like Canada is this special unique democracy.

[crazy canuck]

some do some don't. It's not like Canada is this special unique democracy.

I agree. But since this is a Canadian politics thread, and the claim was being made in the context of a looming Canadian election, I thought it was appropriate to limit my claim specifically to Canada.

[Barrister]

I'm getting a lot of stolen valour type ads about carney. Namely Harper saying that Carney is taking credit for Jim Flaherty's work and how dare you do that to a dead man who can't defend himself.

Already debunked on X by someone who was there, in the same room.  They're gasping at straws.

The fact that Harper is willing to further tarnish his legacy for Poilievre doesn't make me like or respect the Conservative Party more.

"The Conservative Party" is Harper's big legacy.  He helped form the party, was its first leader, and first Prime Minister.

Not sure what you think Harper is going to do about Poilievre besides support him 100% (same as he did for Sheer and O'Toole).

[Barrister]

It'll be interesting to see if Liberals can pull of a win. That would be a stunning upset and almost unthinkable just a few months ago. It kind of feels like Trump has seriously hurt every former US ally's rightwing and Conservative movements with his antics.

Pretty much. We'll see. I don't want to be too optimistic, but I do have some hope.

That said, Ontario's premier - Doug Ford - showed how to handle this from a right-wing perspective. He's basically a made-in-Ontario Trump and has been fairly aligned with MAGA; but when the tariff BS hit, Ford came out strong, taking a pro-Canadian stance. And he handily won re-election recently.

To be fair Ford was leading in the polls throughout, including prior to Trump's inauguration.

[HVC]

I'm getting a lot of stolen valour type ads about carney. Namely Harper saying that Carney is taking credit for Jim Flaherty's work and how dare you do that to a dead man who can't defend himself.

Already debunked on X by someone who was there, in the same room.  They're gasping at straws.

The fact that Harper is willing to further tarnish his legacy for Poilievre doesn't make me like or respect the Conservative Party more.

"The Conservative Party" is Harper's big legacy.  He helped form the party, was its first leader, and first Prime Minister.

Not sure what you think Harper is going to do about Poilievre besides support him 100% (same as he did for Sheer and O'Toole).

Well not lying (according to viper) would be a big plus.

*edit* and by that logic the GOP should support trump whole heartedly since they're in the same party. While Mr P isn't as bad, it doesn't make him good. Harper could just have nobly kept quiet.

[Barrister]

Not sure where you pulled that percentage from. But it has no relationship to Canada where elections have been very consequential.

He's saying (I think) that campaigns rarely matter, not that elections don't.

Right and in Canada election campaigns do matter. 

When Harper called an election the NDP were ahead in the polls.  The NDP strategy was to attract the Liberal vote.  During the election the Liberals came from nowhere to win - to pick but one example.

Also, now that Carney has won the leadership contest with 86% of the vote, we can put Sheilbh's view that he would not be a successful politician to rest.

To be fair you had to go back 10 years for that example.

You also picked one of, if not the, longest election campaign in Canadian history.  Harper knew he was behind and the writ period went on for three months.

Sheilbh said 99% of the time election campaigns don't matter.  99% is probably too high, but I fully agree that most of the time election campaigns don't matter - voters long ago had their minds made up.

Is right now one of those times?  Hard to say.  If Carney goes right into an election then of course the campaign will matter - Canadians are still getting to know him.  If Carney cuts a deal, survives a non-confidence vote and governs until the fall, then whatever the polls say at the start of the campaign will probably tell us who will win.

[Barrister]

Well not lying (according to viper) would be a big plus.

*edit* and by that logic the GOP should support trump whole heartedly since they're in the same party. While Mr P isn't as bad, it doesn't make him good. Harper could just have nobly kept quiet.

Harper, and Carney, are disagreeing who had more importance to the Canadian economy in 2008.  They were both in the room and both know each other - hard to see either as "lying".

My point isnt that Harper is a senior Conservative leader - he's like the Conservative Party's Abe Lincoln(*).  And we're not talking about 150 years, but maybe 20.  Harper knows Poilievre for just as long.  Hell, they're both from Calgary - Harper probably knew him a little bit when Poilievre was in university, if not when he was in high school.

And unlike Trump, Poilievre is offering a continuation of Harper's legacy, not a wild deviation from it.


(*) Minus, you know, a massive civil war and freeing the slaves.  But there's a reason they used to call the GOP the "Party of Lincoln".

[Jacob]

To be fair Ford was leading in the polls throughout, including prior to Trump's inauguration.

So was Poilievre. Until he fumbled.

... or alternately, until the Federal Liberals under Trudeau rose to the occasion.

[crazy canuck]

To be fair Ford was leading in the polls throughout, including prior to Trump's inauguration.

So was Poilievre. Until he fumbled.

... or alternately, until the Federal Liberals under Trudeau rose to the occasion.

I am not so sure the Liberals would have rebounded if Trudeau had not resigned.  Carney is polling way ahead of PP as the person Canadians trust most to deal with Trump.  That is not true of any other Liberal.

[Valmy]

So who is this Carney guy? He lacks the track record of ridiculous charity boxing matches your last guy had coming into office.

[crazy canuck]

 

[Jacob]

I am not so sure the Liberals would have rebounded if Trudeau had not resigned.  Carney is polling way ahead of PP as the person Canadians trust most to deal with Trump.  That is not true of any other Liberal.

I'm sure the resignation didn't hurt, and Carney is obviously a candidate that a lot of previous anti-Trudeau folks could rally around.

At the same time, Trudeau has gotten a fair amount of respect for how he's responded I think. And Poilievre hasn't.

My main theory here is that if Poilievre had responded like Ford, he'd be in a much better spot.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, for sure your main thesis is bang on. And as I noted last week, it was odd that PP was picking a fight with Ford of all people over the issue of public spending to help workers out. 

[Barrister]

I'm sure the resignation didn't hurt, and Carney is obviously a candidate that a lot of previous anti-Trudeau folks could rally around.

At the same time, Trudeau has gotten a fair amount of respect for how he's responded I think. And Poilievre hasn't.

My main theory here is that if Poilievre had responded like Ford, he'd be in a much better spot.

Carney's main attribute is that he isn't Trudeau.  I suspect Freeland would see a similar bump.  Carney is not well known to the average Canadian.

The Liberals are benefitting from two separate things that happened almost simultaneously.  1. Trudeau resigning, and 2. the tariffs/rally around the flag.  Both bumps can tend to be short-lived (although "rally around the flag" would be longer).

Poilievre's problem is he's an opposition leader.  He literally can't respond like Ford because Ford leads a government.

So Carney has the next steps.  He can form a cabinet.  Parliament is due back in 2 weeks today (if he doesn't prorogue further).  From there we'll see what Singh wants to do.

[Barrister]

So who is this Carney guy? He lacks the track record of ridiculous charity boxing matches your last guy had coming into office.

Former investment banker, recruited into Canada's finance department, then Governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008 financial crises.  Later recruited to  be Governor of the Bank of England and saw the UK through Brexit.

But yeah usually central bankers are very important jobs to policy wonks, but not well known to the public at large.  Just as an example I had to google who our current BOC Governor is (it's Tiff Macklem).

Pro-Carney voices are going to paint him as an experienced technocratic leader.  Anti-Carney voices are going to paint him as an out-of-touch elitist.