[Canada] Canadian Politics Redux

[Jacob]

Lt. General (ret) Andrew Leslie thinks Canada ought to step up militarily: "We need money spent now, to get equipment now, overseas now. Notice the emphasis on now."

Video: https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/2016059971717

I don't think anyone here on languish would disagree.

[crazy canuck]

Yeah, apparently we have already sent what we can without stripping our own forces of what meagre materials it has.  This has really exposed our failure to properly fund the military.

[Jacob]

Yeah, apparently we have already sent what we can without stripping our own forces of what meagre materials it has.  This has really exposed our failure to properly fund the military.

I would like that to be fixed.

[Barrister]

So things are really heating up in the UCP leadership review.

There was supposed to be a party convention in April in Red Deer.  Part of which is having a vote on whether there should be a leadership review.  The UCP expected 3,000 attendees - instead 15,000 people had signed up.  So the party moved to a mail-in ballot, which has in turned outraged the many critics of Jason Kenney.

In private remarks to staff secretly recorded and leaked to the media (itself a sign of serious problems in the party) Kenney calls those opposed to his leadership kooks motivated by conspiracy theories and covid-denialism.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/kenney-recording-ucp-alberta-leadership-review-staff-1.6396647

The thing is - Kenney's not wrong here.

I'm not happy with his leadership and not really happy with how he dealt with Covid.  With how he declared Summer 2021 as the "Best Summer Ever", got rid of all restrictions, only to see us lock down pretty hard come the winter from Delta, then Omicron.

But his opponents really are from the covid-denialism wing of the party.  Brian Jean seems like a decent guy (and more reporting really did confirm just how hard they went to screw with him on the initial UCP leadership race).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jason-kenney-kamikaze-campaign-investigations-1.6385745

But Jean is definitely courting the more overt covid-denialist strands in the party.


Not sure where I stand politically then.  Still not tempted by the slightest in Notley's NDP.

[Sheilbh]

Iknow I've said it before but I always love a "blood on the carpet" strategy for leadership and I feel like taking on the covid-denialist wing very publicly would be very potent. From everything I've seen in polls it seems like a very small minority in Canada so it's a great way to signal to the public and that can be positioned as bravely taking on your own party. Or am I totally wrong?

[crazy canuck]

When faced with a choice between kooks motivated by conspiracy theories and covid-denialism and those who are not, why are you not sure of your choice?

[Jacob]

Still not tempted by the slightest in Notley's NDP.

It will be a cold day in hell before you are tempted even the slightest by the NDP, I reckon. But that you even mention them is, I think, a sign of your distress at the current shenanigans.

The proceedings are definitely fascinating. Kenney's leaked "I don't need this job" and "I'm doing this to keep the lunatics from taking over the asylum" made me - for the first time ever - feel sympathetic towards him and his position.

[Jacob]

Iknow I've said it before but I always love a "blood on the carpet" strategy for leadership and I feel like taking on the covid-denialist wing very publicly would be very potent. From everything I've seen in polls it seems like a very small minority in Canada so it's a great way to signal to the public and that can be positioned as bravely taking on your own party. Or am I totally wrong?

Problem is there's a similar dynamic in Canada as in the US (albeit less severe).

The covid denialists overlap somewhat with social conservatives, with right-libertarians, with right wing flavoured anti-gov't arghlgrbgll types, and with a number of protestant as a political identity types* - and those four groups collectively are a signficant enough constituency to significantly impact internal Conservative politics.

In so far as someone could do a blood on the carpet "science is real, stop your fucking whining" leadership bid, they'd risk losing enough from the right flank of the party in various ways. Maybe someone from the progressive wing could pull it off, but they'd be vulnerable to "you're a divider, not a uniter" attacks.

At least that's my read.

*there are, of course, also overlaps on the left side of the political spectrum, but that's not important to internal Conservative politics.

[Barrister]

Iknow I've said it before but I always love a "blood on the carpet" strategy for leadership and I feel like taking on the covid-denialist wing very publicly would be very potent. From everything I've seen in polls it seems like a very small minority in Canada so it's a great way to signal to the public and that can be positioned as bravely taking on your own party. Or am I totally wrong?

It's a minority, but I don't know if it's "very small".

And you're also talking about a right-wing party whose deepest base is rural.  Rural voters are not enough to win an election, but they're an important constituency within the party.  And the conspiratorialists are even more likely than the general population to get involved in party politics.

I'm not sure a "blood on the carpet" strategy would have ended well for Kenney.  Remember this is a party that only very recently unified two split right-of-centre parties - lots of people in the party would have no problem splitting of again (and handing victory right back to the NDP).

[crazy canuck]

Iknow I've said it before but I always love a "blood on the carpet" strategy for leadership and I feel like taking on the covid-denialist wing very publicly would be very potent. From everything I've seen in polls it seems like a very small minority in Canada so it's a great way to signal to the public and that can be positioned as bravely taking on your own party. Or am I totally wrong?

Problem is there's a similar dynamic in Canada as in the US (albeit less severe).

The covid denialists overlap somewhat with social conservatives, with right-libertarians, with right wing flavoured anti-gov't arghlgrbgll types, and with a number of protestant as a political identity types* - and those four groups collectively are a signficant enough constituency to significantly impact internal Conservative politics.

In so far as someone could do a blood on the carpet "science is real, stop your fucking whining" leadership bid, they'd risk losing enough from the right flank of the party in various ways. Maybe someone from the progressive wing could pull it off, but they'd be vulnerable to "you're a divider, not a uniter" attacks.

At least that's my read.

*there are, of course, also overlaps on the left side of the political spectrum, but that's not important to internal Conservative politics.

Add to that the data from early March that showed 44% of Conservative party members support Trump and much of that support is concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

[Sheilbh]

In so far as someone could do a blood on the carpet "science is real, stop your fucking whining" leadership bid, they'd risk losing enough from the right flank of the party in various ways. Maybe someone from the progressive wing could pull it off, but they'd be vulnerable to "you're a divider, not a uniter" attacks.

At least that's my read.

Yeah - you're right. It may not be something to do during the leadership campaign itself, but once you've won. Though I would gesture towards it now.

It would be divisive but I think that's the point. People don't pay attention to politics but if, early doors in your leadership, you can stage a confrontation with your party that gets attention. Especially if it's an issue where the vast majority of the public are on your side.

When the Liberals have just done an agreement with a left party, staging a fight with the right of your party doesn't strike me as a bad idea.

*there are, of course, also overlaps on the left side of the political spectrum, but that's not important to internal Conservative politics.

Yeah in the UK there's no political angle on it at all - Tory voters are more likely to be vaccinated (and to support very strict covid restrictions) because they're more likely to be elderly and at risk.

People who are least likely to be vaccinated here are young and in minority communities (so more Labour inclined if anything) - I think the issues are often material and the ideologically anti-vaxx are a tiny minotiry. Sadly - I think because we speak English and map a lot of our politics onto US templates - there's more focus on that small anti-vaxx minority, when if we want to boost take-up we should be focusing on messaging to young people and minority communities.

It's something that really annoys me because I think it means our focus is in the wrong place if you actually want to fight covid.

[Barrister]

In so far as someone could do a blood on the carpet "science is real, stop your fucking whining" leadership bid, they'd risk losing enough from the right flank of the party in various ways. Maybe someone from the progressive wing could pull it off, but they'd be vulnerable to "you're a divider, not a uniter" attacks.

At least that's my read.

Yeah - you're right. It may not be something to do during the leadership campaign itself, but once you've won. Though I would gesture towards it now.

It would be divisive but I think that's the point. People don't pay attention to politics but if, early doors in your leadership, you can stage a confrontation with your party that gets attention. Especially if it's an issue where the vast majority of the public are on your side.

When the Liberals have just done an agreement with a left party, staging a fight with the right of your party doesn't strike me as a bad idea.

*there are, of course, also overlaps on the left side of the political spectrum, but that's not important to internal Conservative politics.

Yeah in the UK there's no political angle on it at all - Tory voters are more likely to be vaccinated (and to support very strict covid restrictions) because they're more likely to be elderly and at risk.

People who are least likely to be vaccinated here are young and in minority communities (so more Labour inclined if anything) - I think the issues are often material and the ideologically anti-vaxx are a tiny minotiry. Sadly - I think because we speak English and map a lot of our politics onto US templates - there's more focus on that small anti-vaxx minority, when if we want to boost take-up we should be focusing on messaging to young people and minority communities.

It's something that really annoys me because I think it means our focus is in the wrong place if you actually want to fight covid.

Remember this is provincial politics, which does not map perfectly with federal politics.  The Liberal Party of Alberta is a political non-factor at this point.  The opposition is the NDP.

While the rural areas as the base of the UCP, the route to a majority runs through suburban Edmonton and Calgary.  And those voters are indeed much more likely to be fully vaxxed and concerned about Covid.

It's also questionable why they're about to blow up the party over an issue that seems to be over *knocks on wood*.  Kenney removed all restrictions a few weeks ago.  So now they're really just arguing about things that happened in the past, not about the future of the province going forward.

[viper37]

Yeah, apparently we have already sent what we can without stripping our own forces of what meagre materials it has.  This has really exposed our failure to properly fund the military.

I would like that to be fixed.

Easy, vote for the Conservatives.

[Oexmelin]

BB, are you involved at all with the UCP?

[Barrister]

BB, are you involved at all with the UCP?

I'm a member, but not otherwise very involved.