TV/Movies Megathread

[crazy canuck]

I remember thinking that either that was grossly exaggerated, or we should stop using nuclear power altogether if there was any possible set of circumstances that could result in an accident that could wipe out an entire continent.

I assumed they were grossly exaggerating for effect.

Shows the problem of making assumptions.  According to the expert who thought it was overdone, it is not that it is was impossible, its just that all the variables had to go the wrong way for it to occur.

[Malthus]

You just did 

I'm not sure if this is a woosh or not. 

- The makers did on occasion veer into excess, not that this mattered much: for example, at one point claiming that the possible steam explosion could have been 'megatons', which isn't possible. This was mildly annoying (it would have been so easy not to do this and it wasn't necessary for the plot), but I thought it was a minor issue.

At least one person who has researched what happened disagrees with your assessment.

"If that happened it would have triggered a second steam explosion that would have done unimaginable damage and destroyed the entire power station, including the three other reactors," author Andrew Leatherbarrow wrote in an email to Tech Insider. Leatherbarrow recently published a book, called "1:23:40: The Incredible True Story of the Chernobyl Nuclear Disaster," that recounts the catastrophe's history on its 30th anniversary. By most estimates, such a blast may have wiped out half of Europe, leaving it riskier to live in for 500,000 years.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chernobyl-volunteers-divers-nuclear-mission-2016-4

Where does this person claim the steam explosion would have been "megatons"?

No-one, I think, denies it would have been bad, even "catastrophic". But "four megatons" isn't, I think, physically possible from a steam explosion.

The notion that the "blast would have wiped out half of Europe" is also nonsense: I assume what the reviewer was trying to say was that the fallout would have contaminated half of Europe, not that the "blast" would literally have been that powerful (which of course would require a lot more than "four megatons").

There is another piece in the business insider quoting some expert who thinks it was overdone but he doesn't rule it out.

Haverkamp said there were too many hypotheticals considered in this scenario.

"They're not saving the world," he said. "That situation might play out if all of the melting corium hit groundwater," he added, but when corium starts melting, it melts "in a very uneven way."

The claim that a second explosion would carry a force of up to 4 megatons, he said, was "an exaggeration."

https://www.businessinsider.com/chernobyl-hbo-whats-true-myths-2019-5#myth-a-steam-explosion-following-the-disaster-could-have-left-much-of-europe-uninhabitable-5

Not sure why you found it mildly annoying.  Sounds like one needs to know about the details of nuclear power on a Brain level of expertise to have the general knowledge necessary to make a judgment about whether it was over done or not while watching the show.

No - even a complete layman would know that an explosion caused by superheated steam could not be "four megatons". That's an explosion on the level of a fusion bomb.   

I found it mildly annoying because it was unnecessary to the drama (all the audience needed to know is that it would be bad) plus being wrong. Why add it?

[crazy canuck]

Where does this person claim the steam explosion would have been "megatons"?

No-one, I think, denies it would have been bad, even "catastrophic". But "four megatons" isn't, I think, physically possible from a steam explosion.

"such a blast may have wiped out half of Europe, leaving it riskier to live in for 500,000 years."

I thought it was implied in this statement.  Is it possible for the explosion to be less than megatonnes and have this effect? - could be but at that point you are just quibbling.

No - even a complete layman would know that an explosion caused by superheated steam could not be "four megatons". That's an explosion on the level of a fusion bomb.

I see, you then missed the explanation that it was not just the steam that was the problem.  I can see why you would have been annoyed if you had not followed the logic that it would have destroyed the rest of the reactors and that is what would have caused the wider problem.

[Malthus]

By way of comparison, a four megaton nuclear blast:

https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&kt=4000&lat=43.70011&lng=-79.4163&airburst=0&hob_ft=0&psi=20,5,1&zm=11

Would, for example, completely wipe out Toronto.

What was being dealt with at Cherobyl, was a blast caused by superheating the steam found in the tanks under the plant when the molten core dripped into them - which is why the divers heroics in draining the tank were important.

A significant explosion could have resulted for sure - maybe enough to blast open the other reactors, certainly enough to scatter radioactive debris all over the place - but not "four megatons" worth.

[Malthus]

Where does this person claim the steam explosion would have been "megatons"?

No-one, I think, denies it would have been bad, even "catastrophic". But "four megatons" isn't, I think, physically possible from a steam explosion.

"such a blast may have wiped out half of Europe, leaving it riskier to live in for 500,000 years."

I thought it was implied in this statement.  Is it possible for the explosion to be less than megatonnes and have this effect? - could be but at that point you are just quibbling.

As I said - that statement must be nonsense if meant literally.

The "blast" could not "wipe out half of Europe", even if it was "four megatons".

Could the contamination have done so? Maybe. But that's not the claim being contested.

I see, you then missed the explanation that it was not just the steam that was the problem.  I can see why you would have been annoyed if you had not followed the logic that it would have destroyed the rest of the reactors and that is what would have caused the wider problem.

My point is very simple.

In the show, the claim is made that the steam explosion would have been "four megatons".

This claim is not possible. Do you agree or not? 

This fact has nothing to do with the additional claim that the explosion could have breached the other reactors, spread contamination around, etc.

[The Brain]

Back of the envelope shit suggests that you would have to run the reactor on full power for many decades to generate (and store without loss...) enough energy to reach 4 megatons.

As for the blast making large parts of Europe uninhabitable through contamination... I don't see how. "Riskier to live in" means nothing, tiny risks can be calculated (though they have to be bigger to be observed).

[The Brain]

Back of the envelope shit suggests that you would have to run the reactor on full power for many decades to generate (and store without loss...) enough energy to reach 4 megatons.

As for the blast making large parts of Europe uninhabitable through contamination... I don't see how. "Riskier to live in" means nothing, tiny risks can be calculated (though they have to be bigger to be observed).

Oops maybe the envelope was bad, I think less time would be required. Bah I can't be bothered to check the numbers.

[crazy canuck]

As I said - that statement must be nonsense if meant literally.

And yet the expert opining on the show said  "That situation might play out if all of the melting corium hit groundwater"

[Malthus]

As I said - that statement must be nonsense if meant literally.

And yet the expert opining on the show said  "That situation might play out if all of the melting corium hit groundwater"

Not true - according at least to the expert you cited. That expert expressly called the four megaton claim "an exaggeration".

From your article:

MYTH: A steam explosion following the disaster could have left much of Europe uninhabitable.

Liam Daniel/HBO 
In the wake of the initial blast, nuclear physicists feared a second explosion caused by melting corium coming into contact with groundwater.

In episode two, Khomyuk informs the USSR that a follow-up explosion would carry a force of 2 to 4 megatons, which would wipe out "the entire population of Kiev and a portion of Minsk." The release of radiation, she adds, would "impact all of Soviet Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarusia, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and most of East Germany."

Haverkamp said there were too many hypotheticals considered in this scenario.

"They're not saving the world," he said. "That situation might play out if all of the melting corium hit groundwater," he added, but when corium starts melting, it melts "in a very uneven way."

The claim that a second explosion would carry a force of up to 4 megatons, he said, was "an exaggeration."

[Emphasis]

You keep conflating two claims:

(1) that the steam explosion would have released a lot of contamination, which (arguably) would have contaminated large areas of Europe; and

(2) the steam explosion would have been 2-4 megatons.

The first claim is at least arguable. The second claim is nonsense. That a steam blast caused by molten corium could have been "2 to 4 megatons" is, simply, not physically possible and the expert you cite expressly states it's "an exaggeration", which is putting it mildly.

Why is this important?

Well, for enjoying the drama, it isn't very important - all the audience really needs to know is that the situation is bad, not the exact details.

However - the character making the "2 to 4 megaton" claim is supposed to be the "truth teller" in the show - the scientist whom the Party creatures dismiss as an exaggerator, whose prophecies of possible doom are revealed during the show as true. It undermines his character if he is made to spout a gross exaggeration.

[The Minsky Moment]

Ok but it could generate 1.21 gigawatts no problem.  And who knows what mayhem that could cause.

[frunk]

Ok but it could generate 1.21 gigawatts no problem.  And who knows what mayhem that could cause.

Chernobyl 2: Back to the Politburo

[crazy canuck]

However - the character making the "2 to 4 megaton" claim is supposed to be the "truth teller" in the show - the scientist whom the Party creatures dismiss as an exaggerator, whose prophecies of possible doom are revealed during the show as true. It undermines his character if he is made to spout a gross exaggeration.

The claim that was not accepted is the amount of radiation - hence the joke that this show is rated as a solid 3.6

[The Brain]

The important thing is that we have Dyatlov meme videos on YouTube.

[Malthus]

I'm waiting for this version of Chernobyl ... I'm sure it will be a huge improvement. /s 

https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-tv-series-blames-cia-chernobyl-nuclear-disaster

[For those sarcasm-challenged, I'm being sarcastic. I have no doubt it will be laughable propaganda.]

[Duque de Bragança]

I'm waiting for this version of Chernobyl ... I'm sure it will be a huge improvement. /s 

https://www.voanews.com/europe/russian-tv-series-blames-cia-chernobyl-nuclear-disaster

[For those sarcasm-challenged, I'm being sarcastic. I have no doubt it will be laughable propaganda.]

Yeah, but at least it will be in Russian.   
Even Red Dawn had Russian dialogue.